two today w/analysis

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CHICAGO –1 +1.10 over Pittsburgh (2:20 PM)<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
If you look at Shawn Chacon’s last game line against the Cardinals it looks pretty impressive on paper; five innings pitched, four hits, 0 runs. However, if you watched the game than you’re aware of just how badly he pitched and how inept the Cardinals were in that game. He threw 90 pitches in those five innings and 55 of them were balls. He walked four batters and he was behind in the count to every batter, not just 1-0 but 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1. The Cardinals had at least two base-runners in every inning but couldn’t produce anything. Chacon was his typical self; dreadful, fighting the strike zone and a hit or two away from being pulled in the first two innings and every inning thereafter. Chacon has an ERA of 7.85 on the road and the opposition is hitting a hefty .324 off him. He’s also walked 29 batters in 36 road innings while striking out four less. In those 36 innings he’s been tagged for 10 jacks. After yesterday’s road loss to Rich Hill and the Cubs, the Pirates are now 4-20 on the road against southpaws and 9-32 overall and will face another one tonight in Sean Marshall. Shawn Chacon is a minor league pitcher making major league dollars and that’s the only reason he’s still in any rotation. We’ll continue to take advantage of this stiff for as long as we can and you should too. Play: Chicago –1 +1.10 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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FLORIDA –1 +1.24 over Philadelphia<o:p></o:p>
Important series will play a big role in determining which one of these two teams, if any, makes it to the post-season and our money is on the Marlins. Florida is playing as good as any team in the league right now and it all starts on the mound, where the Fish have a big edge. Josh Johnson makes his 23rd start for the Marlins and all he’s done is go 12-6 with a 2.99 ERA. He’s been one of the major’s most reliable and consistent starters. In the same number of starts John Lieber has won half as many games as Johnson. Unlike Johnson, Lieber is not reliable, nor consistent. The Marlins have trouble with strikeout pitchers but Lieber does not fit into that category and the Marlins have absolutely torched him this season. In fact, he’s 1-2 with an 8.66 ERA in three starts against Florida this year and that’s when the Marlins were not playing so hot. Nice to see the Marlins drawing less than a WNBA game but they’re not going un-noticed here. Play: Florida –1 +1.24 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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