Sixth Sense pro picks
Sixth Sense This Week <hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="432"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#808080">WEEK ONE BEST BETS (YTD 0-0)</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f7f7f7">3% NY GIANTS +3
3% MINNESOTA +4.5
3% OAKLAND +3
</td></tr><tr><td> Each week I will present the Sunday night game, Monday night game and a Sunday afternoon game. If the Sunday or Monday games are not Best Bets, I will give you a Sunday afternoon game, which is a Best Bet. If more than one game qualifies as a Best Bet from the Sunday and Monday night games, you get extra Best Bets.
NEW ENGLAND –9 Buffalo 41
NE steamrolled their opponents during the preseason winning by an average of over 14 points per game and allowing just 15 points per game. On the other side is Buffalo, who allowed over 22 points per game while allowing more points than they scored. Preseason is just that, preseason, but there are indicators that have extremely good reliability during the first week of the season based on what happened in the preseason. NE, based on that preseason success and the lack of success by Buffalo, qualifies in an 84-44-4 week one situation. NE averaged 5.5yppl last year against teams allowing 5.0yppl. They’ll face a Buffalo defense, which allowed 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl last year. The Buffalo offense was below average last year gaining just 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl and until J.P. Losman gets settled in at the quarterback position, their offense will continue to struggle. The NE defense was both good and bad at times last year and overall allowed 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. NE only won by five at home last year against Buffalo, 21-16, but the previous four years they won every game by at least 10 points at home against Buffalo. Only two of the past nine games and just one of the past five games have totaled more than 41 points between these two in NE. Those two that went over the total only ended up with 44 and 46 points. If this line were to come down to seven or less I would make NE a Best Bet as they would qualify in a 65-25-2 week one situation, including a subset, which is 58-18-2. Also note NE has gone under 11-3-1 over their last 14 home games that they have won and covered. In other words, if NE wins and covers, they typically do it by playing defense and not allowing a lot of points. In those 11 unders, they have not allowed more than seven points in any one game. Buffalo doesn’t seem to have the type of offense that will threaten the NE defense this week either. NEW ENGLAND 27 BUFFALO 10
Indianapolis –3 NY GIANTS 48
This should be a very interesting game between Peyton and Eli Manning. I really like the Giants offense this year and their defense is good enough. Unfortunately, they play a very tough schedule this year, which may keep them from winning a lot of games. But, they will be a very tough team to beat. Indy already is a tough team to beat but they are in a tough situation in this game. Indy averaged 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl last year, including 7.6yps against 6.1yps. They face a Giants defense, which allowed 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl last year, including 5.8yps against 6.0yps. The Giants offense averaged 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl, including 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr. Indy allowed 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl, including 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr. Indy allowed over 21 points per game in the preseason, while the Giants allowed just over seven points per game. Obviously a poor preseason didn’t hurt Indy last year but the Giants have enough offense to stay with Indy in this game and their front four should be able to put pressure on Peyton Manning. When teams can put pressure on Manning, he tends to struggle. With the exception of the playoff loss last year, Eli Manning has not lost any of his last 11 home games by more than three points, including winning nine of those eleven games, with one of those two losses (both by three points) because of an interception, kickoff and punt return for a touchdown against the Vikings last year. The Giants qualify in some solid situations this week, which are 84-44-4, 44-20-1 (a situation that covers the first three weeks and is 19-4-1 during week one), a 51-15-3 situation, which is 18-4-2 when playing on dogs. NY GIANTS 27 INDIANAPOLIS 24
WASHINGTON –4.5 Minnesota 35
I bleed Green and Gold and quite frankly despise the Vikings. With that said, while their offense will be pretty boring this year, their defense appears to be the real deal, getting plenty of pressure up front and a solid, experienced secondary to go with the front four. They’ll face a Washington offense that was non-existent during the preseason. Al Saunders is the new offensive coordinator in Washington and he maintained they only used about 2% of the playbook during the preseason. The question now becomes do they have the personnel to run the offense from the get go or will it take some time. I have to believe it will take some time because Mark Brunnell just doesn’t appear capable to get the job done on a weekly basis. Both teams have good defenses although Washington did allow 29 points per game during the preseason, while Minnesota allowed just 11 points pre game. Minnesota’s numbers were pretty average last year gaining 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allowing 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. Their coaching staff is much better this year, which should allow their players to be better playmakers as well. Washington averaged 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl last year and allowed 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Minnesota qualifies in a first three weeks situation, which is 44-20-1, including 19-4-1 during the first week. They also qualify in a week one situation, which is 65-25-2, including a subset, which is 58-18-2. I just don’t see what appears to be an anemic offense early on pulling away from a good defensive team like Minnesota. It appears Clinton Portis will play but whether he plays or not, I like Minnesota here. MINNESOTA 17 WASHINGTON 13
San Diego –3 Oakland 43
This is the toughest game of the week for me to pull the trigger on. Oakland qualifies in some solid situations but they will face a tough team in San Diego. I believe San Diego may have the best defense in the league by the end of the year and that could spell trouble for someone like Aaron Brooks. SD played a very tough schedule last year but that schedule looks much easier on paper this year. They averaged 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl and will face an Oakland team that allowed 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Oakland averaged 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl and will face a SD defense that allowed 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Every game here between these two over the last five years has totaled at least 40 points so this game stands a chance to go over the total. Oakland looked good during preseason but they were certainly putting more emphasis on winning games than some other teams. The Raiders allowed just eight points per game, while winning their games by over 10 points per game. They qualify in a week one situation, which is 84-44-3 as well as a 51-15-3 situation, which is 18-4-2 when playing dogs. Nothing easy for Oakland in this game but hopefully Phillip Rivers, in his first road game of the season, will get taken out of his element just enough to help Oakland cover this game. OAKLAND 27 SAN DIEGO 24 </td></tr></tbody></table>
Sixth Sense This Week <hr style="color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="432"><tbody><tr><td bgcolor="#808080">WEEK ONE BEST BETS (YTD 0-0)</td></tr><tr><td bgcolor="#f7f7f7">3% NY GIANTS +3
3% MINNESOTA +4.5
3% OAKLAND +3
</td></tr><tr><td> Each week I will present the Sunday night game, Monday night game and a Sunday afternoon game. If the Sunday or Monday games are not Best Bets, I will give you a Sunday afternoon game, which is a Best Bet. If more than one game qualifies as a Best Bet from the Sunday and Monday night games, you get extra Best Bets.
NEW ENGLAND –9 Buffalo 41
NE steamrolled their opponents during the preseason winning by an average of over 14 points per game and allowing just 15 points per game. On the other side is Buffalo, who allowed over 22 points per game while allowing more points than they scored. Preseason is just that, preseason, but there are indicators that have extremely good reliability during the first week of the season based on what happened in the preseason. NE, based on that preseason success and the lack of success by Buffalo, qualifies in an 84-44-4 week one situation. NE averaged 5.5yppl last year against teams allowing 5.0yppl. They’ll face a Buffalo defense, which allowed 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl last year. The Buffalo offense was below average last year gaining just 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl and until J.P. Losman gets settled in at the quarterback position, their offense will continue to struggle. The NE defense was both good and bad at times last year and overall allowed 5.3yppl against 5.1yppl. NE only won by five at home last year against Buffalo, 21-16, but the previous four years they won every game by at least 10 points at home against Buffalo. Only two of the past nine games and just one of the past five games have totaled more than 41 points between these two in NE. Those two that went over the total only ended up with 44 and 46 points. If this line were to come down to seven or less I would make NE a Best Bet as they would qualify in a 65-25-2 week one situation, including a subset, which is 58-18-2. Also note NE has gone under 11-3-1 over their last 14 home games that they have won and covered. In other words, if NE wins and covers, they typically do it by playing defense and not allowing a lot of points. In those 11 unders, they have not allowed more than seven points in any one game. Buffalo doesn’t seem to have the type of offense that will threaten the NE defense this week either. NEW ENGLAND 27 BUFFALO 10
Indianapolis –3 NY GIANTS 48
This should be a very interesting game between Peyton and Eli Manning. I really like the Giants offense this year and their defense is good enough. Unfortunately, they play a very tough schedule this year, which may keep them from winning a lot of games. But, they will be a very tough team to beat. Indy already is a tough team to beat but they are in a tough situation in this game. Indy averaged 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl last year, including 7.6yps against 6.1yps. They face a Giants defense, which allowed 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl last year, including 5.8yps against 6.0yps. The Giants offense averaged 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl, including 4.7ypr against 4.0ypr. Indy allowed 5.2yppl against 5.0yppl, including 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr. Indy allowed over 21 points per game in the preseason, while the Giants allowed just over seven points per game. Obviously a poor preseason didn’t hurt Indy last year but the Giants have enough offense to stay with Indy in this game and their front four should be able to put pressure on Peyton Manning. When teams can put pressure on Manning, he tends to struggle. With the exception of the playoff loss last year, Eli Manning has not lost any of his last 11 home games by more than three points, including winning nine of those eleven games, with one of those two losses (both by three points) because of an interception, kickoff and punt return for a touchdown against the Vikings last year. The Giants qualify in some solid situations this week, which are 84-44-4, 44-20-1 (a situation that covers the first three weeks and is 19-4-1 during week one), a 51-15-3 situation, which is 18-4-2 when playing on dogs. NY GIANTS 27 INDIANAPOLIS 24
WASHINGTON –4.5 Minnesota 35
I bleed Green and Gold and quite frankly despise the Vikings. With that said, while their offense will be pretty boring this year, their defense appears to be the real deal, getting plenty of pressure up front and a solid, experienced secondary to go with the front four. They’ll face a Washington offense that was non-existent during the preseason. Al Saunders is the new offensive coordinator in Washington and he maintained they only used about 2% of the playbook during the preseason. The question now becomes do they have the personnel to run the offense from the get go or will it take some time. I have to believe it will take some time because Mark Brunnell just doesn’t appear capable to get the job done on a weekly basis. Both teams have good defenses although Washington did allow 29 points per game during the preseason, while Minnesota allowed just 11 points pre game. Minnesota’s numbers were pretty average last year gaining 4.9yppl against 4.9yppl and allowing 5.0yppl against 4.9yppl. Their coaching staff is much better this year, which should allow their players to be better playmakers as well. Washington averaged 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl last year and allowed 4.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Minnesota qualifies in a first three weeks situation, which is 44-20-1, including 19-4-1 during the first week. They also qualify in a week one situation, which is 65-25-2, including a subset, which is 58-18-2. I just don’t see what appears to be an anemic offense early on pulling away from a good defensive team like Minnesota. It appears Clinton Portis will play but whether he plays or not, I like Minnesota here. MINNESOTA 17 WASHINGTON 13
San Diego –3 Oakland 43
This is the toughest game of the week for me to pull the trigger on. Oakland qualifies in some solid situations but they will face a tough team in San Diego. I believe San Diego may have the best defense in the league by the end of the year and that could spell trouble for someone like Aaron Brooks. SD played a very tough schedule last year but that schedule looks much easier on paper this year. They averaged 5.4yppl against 5.1yppl and will face an Oakland team that allowed 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Oakland averaged 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl and will face a SD defense that allowed 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. Every game here between these two over the last five years has totaled at least 40 points so this game stands a chance to go over the total. Oakland looked good during preseason but they were certainly putting more emphasis on winning games than some other teams. The Raiders allowed just eight points per game, while winning their games by over 10 points per game. They qualify in a week one situation, which is 84-44-3 as well as a 51-15-3 situation, which is 18-4-2 when playing dogs. Nothing easy for Oakland in this game but hopefully Phillip Rivers, in his first road game of the season, will get taken out of his element just enough to help Oakland cover this game. OAKLAND 27 SAN DIEGO 24 </td></tr></tbody></table>
