Will you follow a PROVEN capper (cokin) if he starts out REALLY bad?

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Rx Wizard
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I bet most followers jump off the bandwagon when a guy STARTS the season off losing.

Wait for all the bashers on Ace-Ace if/when he has a losing week. It is a "what have you done for me lately" business.

I say have a plan and STICK to it or your riding the wave at the wrong time.
 

Rx God
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How proven is he ? I read his baseball write-up, he seems about even over about 100 plays.

Any larger record ?
 

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With the way he moves lines, who cares if he wins?

Doug: His record is posted over at Fezzik's..his sunday night radio selections are 57-60% I believe, but relatively small sample vs nice (but available) lines. He beats the closing number comfortably on average
 

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Do you have the link to that show? I think it was KDMN or something, but it's not in my links anymore as it was on my old computer and I haven't listened for quite some time.
 

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Iceman said:
Wait for all the bashers on Ace-Ace if/when he has a losing week. It is a "what have you done for me lately" business.
I think you're exagerating a little. There will always be baiters and people who blame others for their bets, but overall, people follow ACE-ACE because he is a proven winner over a long period of time. They're not going to jump ship just because he has a few bad weeks. Even so, people should keep in mind that he has had a couple of losing seasons in football recently, so he's not infallible.

The baseball season taught me a good lesson this year. I was just starting out, and planned on following a handful of guys who had had several consecutive +100 unit seasons. A few of them tanked completely unfortunately. So even if a guy is a proven long term winner, he can have a bad year.
 

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I will give his picks a lot of weight in my own wagering... I don't follow anyone perfectly, but I do value their choices.

Starting 1-10 is meaningless..

-Sean
 

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Past performance is not a indicator of future success. He may stay cold.
 

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I'd disagree with that, if past performance is measured over a suitably large sample.
 

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Santo said:
I'd disagree with that, if past performance is measured over a suitably large sample.

So you are telling me that if a person as a 10-15 track record it isn't impossible for him/her to have a horrible year....it may be less likely but it isn't impossible,
 

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No I'm not saying that... a season itself is a small sample compared to the "long-run".. and I'm lucky Singer doesn't post here or we'd hear all about how the long run doesn't exist :)

I would say that over the next 10 years I'd expect them to be profitable, all other things being equal... a one or two year losing blip is very possible.
 

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Not that you need me to agree with you.....but yeah I agree with that.
 

Rx Wizard
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kirkmuller said:
I think you're exagerating a little. There will always be baiters and people who blame others for their bets, but overall, people follow ACE-ACE because he is a proven winner over a long period of time. They're not going to jump ship just because he has a few bad weeks. Even so, people should keep in mind that he has had a couple of losing seasons in football recently, so he's not infallible.

The baseball season taught me a good lesson this year. I was just starting out, and planned on following a handful of guys who had had several consecutive +100 unit seasons. A few of them tanked completely unfortunately. So even if a guy is a proven long term winner, he can have a bad year.

just watch. 1 football season is so meaningless in the big scope of things and it is VERY possibile Ace or any proven winner could have a DOWN year and MOST gamblers (not the ones who TRULY understand the ins and outs of this) will lose faith and quit.

Your way is the right way of thiniking but but just watch how people act. I seen it with Choptalk, Bucsfan and others this baseball season when they were just 20 units down people were freaking out.


It takes a different mindset than most realize. One of my favorite gambling verses of all time is : Be prepared for the HUGE flucuations in your bankroll, even most say than can handle it. Most everyones breaking point is not as high as they think.
 

Rx God
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Ace could easily have a down year. If he picks about 3 real games to bet a week ( I'm not counting the small bets, they don't change things much) he's only going to have about 50 picks. 50 can easily have a bad streak in there, for a down year.

I play some of his picks, but not at a bad line. I believe in him.
 

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I've been on both sides of most of Ace's picks with a lean to his side, I've come back heavier on the opposite side when other people I listen to indicate that to be the right move.
 

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Iceman said:
just watch. 1 football season is so meaningless in the big scope of things and it is VERY possibile Ace or any proven winner could have a DOWN year and MOST gamblers (not the ones who TRULY understand the ins and outs of this) will lose faith and quit.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I think that Ace is one of the few handicappers whose followers will not freak out if he starts out badly. However, he's still prone to having a bad year every now and then.

This is what he wrote in his year-end recap:
"FROM 94-04 I WAS 8-2....NOW 10-2 (COUNTING THIS YEAR)
THE TWO YEAR I LOST WAS
1998 -$35,555
2001 -$14,200

SOME WINNING YEARS

2002-2003 +56,000+
2003-2004 +11,135
2004-2005 +28,800
2005-2006 +51,141
"
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=347228
 

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Iceman said:
just watch. 1 football season is so meaningless in the big scope of things and it is VERY possibile Ace or any proven winner could have a DOWN year and MOST gamblers (not the ones who TRULY understand the ins and outs of this) will lose faith and quit.

Your way is the right way of thiniking but but just watch how people act. I seen it with Choptalk, Bucsfan and others this baseball season when they were just 20 units down people were freaking out.


It takes a different mindset than most realize. One of my favorite gambling verses of all time is : Be prepared for the HUGE flucuations in your bankroll, even most say than can handle it. Most everyones breaking point is not as high as they think.



Boy did I ever learn that lesson the hard way!!!!!!
 

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