Possible Non Sports Scalp?

RealSlimShady · Sep 12, 2006

On Tradesports, you can bet against the Republicans retaining control of the Senate at around +500 currently:

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=35889&eventSelect=35889&updateList=true&showExpired=false

On Skybook, they have this prop available:

Majority of Seats in the Senate,Nov.7th.2006 Elec.
Wed 11/1 8:00AM (PST)

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="96%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap bgColor=#b3d5f0> 1003 Democrats</TD><TD align=middle width=80 bgColor=#b3d5f0>+160</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap bgColor=#80b8e6> 1004 Republicans</TD><TD align=middle width=80 bgColor=#80b8e6>-200</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Is this a legitimate big scalp of am I missing something here? :icon_conf

D2bets · Sep 12, 2006

Hmmmm....I think you could get "polish middled". There is already an independent and if Liberman wins there are 2. So it could end up 49-49-2. In that case, neither Dems nor Repubs would have majority and yet maybe R's would still "retain control". I imagine "retain control" is defined as which party has the majority leader. Maybe? I would just worry that these are not defined as well as needed. You'd need to examine it closely and run the scenarios. The wording is crucial and they don't appear to be identical.

RealSlimShady · Sep 12, 2006

I am not too sure myself on the terminology, but a +300 scalp may be worth the risk of getting "Polish middled"!

RealSlimShady · Sep 12, 2006

D2bets said:
Hmmmm....I think you could get "polish middled". There is already an independent and if Liberman wins there are 2. So it could end up 49-49-2. In that case, neither Dems nor Repubs would have majority and yet maybe R's would still "retain control". I imagine "retain control" is defined as which party has the majority leader. Maybe? I would just worry that these are not defined as well as needed. You'd need to examine it closely and run the scenarios. The wording is crucial and they don't appear to be identical.

SKybook's rule:
* Note: Any wagers placed after outcome becomes public knowledge will be graded as No Action. If the election results in a tie in the number of seats held by Republicans and Democrats, this wager will be graded as No Action.

Looks like if it's a tie, you will push at Skybook. Not sure what will happen at Tradesports.......

D2bets · Sep 12, 2006

RealSlimShady said:
SKybook's rule:
* Note: Any wagers placed after outcome becomes public knowledge will be graded as No Action. If the election results in a tie in the number of seats held by Republicans and Democrats, this wager will be graded as No Action.

Looks like if it's a tie, you will push at Skybook. Not sure what will happen at Tradesports.......

I think you'd lose at TS as I believe the VP then breaks the tie. Might still be worth the risk.

RealSlimShady · Sep 12, 2006

Sounds like the worst case scenario is i lose at Tradesports in the event of a tie and push at Skybook. I think the possible scalp is well worth the risk.....I'm gonna do it! :103631605