guys-i may need to change my betting style

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

i have not made money in two yrs and have learned so much here and still
cannot win as much as i should with this info.......

Last yr in Pro Football i played pretty much dogs and no fav over 3 and got killed
70% percent all favorites covered especially late

last college bb season expecially the tounament is was the crazyiest yr i have seen, teams like George Mason were winning day in and out against teams like michigan st minus 4 happend all yr!!!

last baseball season i play alot of overs on small totals like 7 and couldn't get a win, dodgers, padres, marlins 3-2 every night... this yr you cant even find a 7 and haven't seen a 6.5 all yr

this baseball season crazy year more bottom of the ninth 2 out loses
plus all the good cappers here out early

This yr football got the best number and went 0-5
green bay plus 5 loser
cleveland over 36 line was 37 went under,even fezzik had it loser
giant plus 3.5 refs fucked me loser
over minny at 36, ended 35.....16-16 all fourth qtr loser
over balt at 32.5 line was 34 27-0 all fouth qtr loser

i have been very selective and it is still very difficult

without scalping, middling, etc.........

Can you really win just betting sports???????

Do not tell me just follow Ace-Ace

Dante · Sep 13, 2006

Just follow ACE ACE

viking611 · Sep 13, 2006

should've taken the other side in all those games.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 13, 2006

OK, just follow NFLplayer. No idea who he will be following.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

Dante said:
Just follow ACE ACE

i assure you the whole forum would not like that!!!!

if i buy the same stock you buy, you will need to sell

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
OK, just follow NFLplayer. No idea who he will be following.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

frog, i have always respected you but this comment was not going
to help me and you know that!

Raider44 · Sep 13, 2006

One thing to track is the amount you risk. It is amazing to me how much you will risk in a season. I have a spreadsheet that tracks that and my progress each week. SInce I have started using it I no longer put money on a game just to watch it. I am selective about the games and take the money I would have thrown at games with an opinion and added that to my plays that I have researched and like. You can make money at this but keep in mind a acheivable goal. Interest rate on saving is nothing. Stocks are up and down. If you have a set amount in your account you could risk it on one game and be broke or ahead. Try and get a 10-20 % return on your investment. Others may get a lot more than that but get that first and then move up the stakes

Anonymous1 · Sep 13, 2006

sounds to me as if you know whats happening, yet your are not willing to make changes necessary to follow trends you have spotted...in other words you are being hard-headed about certain wagering styles and you will stand by them all the way down...embrace change GA as the only constant about change is change itself..gl

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
OK, just follow NFLplayer. No idea who he will be following.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

by the way, since you posted detroit would beat the lakers and it happened, you have done nothing since.....as far as picks go!!!!

anyone can be critical:howdy:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 13, 2006

Just be first for the mad scramble as the line may move double digits before you even get down a bet. At least that is what I have been told. Join the party on ACE ACE. Next up, he cures the common cold. Father's NFLplayer's child. Just don't buy down the 21. You don't need to lose triple juice on top of everything else.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

my net figure for last 3 yrs is minus 737.00 with about 583,000 wagered

i hear all these people talk about making a living and i'm wondered without
scalping is it possible?????

i never go into any bet witout the best number and/or money mgmt

Raider44 · Sep 13, 2006

I have stated this before but in the first part of the season the defenses are ahead of the offenses. This leads to low scoring games. You saw that last Sunday and lost on 2 overs. Dogs also do well in the first part of the season as the books do not have the numbers down yet. You have to make your money early in the NFL because by the end of the season they are very tight numbers that come down to the last posession for the line and over and under more times than not. Books this week are also posting some very interesting numbers. They are not going to let the favorites win like they did last year. I cannot remember a time when the numbers were so high. 10+ points in regular season is unreal to me. I am looking for live dogs barking this weekend and looking for games that will stay under the number.

Sorry for the long reply hope this helps. Remember also College FB and College BBall are much easier to make money in than Pro in my opinion anyway

WCBias · Sep 13, 2006

GA...you are in a slump. Keep playing but lower your units significantly until you are clear. I guarantee you the tide will turn over the long haul. And stay away from totals and the NFL...

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 13, 2006

golfing arkansas said:
by the way, since you posted detroit would beat the lakers and it happened, you have done nothing since.....as far as picks go!!!!

anyone can be critical:howdy:

Really? My how soon we forget.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

And people wonder why I don't even bother posting picks anymore. Read this illustration.

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Really? My how soon we forget.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

And people wonder why I don't even bother posting picks anymore. Read this illustration.

you are one person i would pay for picks and respect, but someone will make you made mad, you will get in a pissing contest and then disapear
for awhile....i thought the detriot pick was one of the best i had ever seen
but you have not posted much since, agree?

then you get in a "discussion with nflplayer' and then tell me to follow his plays like he was a major square....so did you give me sound advice or were you being critical?????

ga

golfingarkansas · Sep 13, 2006

WC Bias said:
GA...you are in a slump. Keep playing but lower your units significantly until you are clear. I guarantee you the tide will turn over the long haul. And stay away from totals and the NFL...

thanks, ga

example you told me last spring the usc would roll over ark. i was ready to unload on usc
and there several big names on Ark...i try not to play homer games! My local called me here
in Ark and was heavy on usc and asked me to help him with ark, i said no! He then gave
me Ark plus 14 for 5000.00 and i lost that too and i got a great number double the closing line

Raider44 · Sep 13, 2006

It looks to me like you keep track of risk and reward which many do not do. Take your figure 583,000 that is a lot of money. When you factor everything in to be down 737 is pretty remarkable. Somethin else I do is pick every game on paper and give it a rating. 1-5 I do this in college and Pro every year. I have never been under +100 units by the end. Have I ended up +100 units in my account. NO. Rank them this way.
1 Opinion this will at least keep you interested in that MNF with no side
2 Lean. If someone held a gun to your head and said pick
3 Play A play you like and are willing to risk money on
4 Strong Play Solid info things line up well and you really like it
5 GOW/GOY You love this play there is no way it can lose how can the books be so stupid they are missing something here.

In college since there are so many games I only keep track of the 3 + plays that I right down unless it is a tv game and I do not have money on it this way I still have interest if I watch.

Pros pick every game when the lines come out. Track your progress on paper you lose less money that way. You will find a trend. Most people will find that if they go against the 5 unit play and take the 1 unit play they would be money ahead.

GO TO THICK 1 thread on service plays. Read all the touts and who is on who. Go against anyone of the picks you will win 65 % of the time. IF they post a game of the year run do not walk to your computer and bet against whatever the hell they said because they are wrong over 90 % of the time. It cost me a lot of money to figure this out but I want to see people use this knowledge against the books

BOL

Raider44 · Sep 13, 2006

N E V E R P A Y F O R A P I C K F R O M A N Y O N E !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My brother is a Pro golfer he sent me to a guy to invest my money in stocks that he trusted. I had a penny stock that went over 10 X what I could have bought it for. He would not buy the stock he gave me some sound advice though. Buy Worldcom and Enron stock they are down and will rebound. NOBODY CARES ABOUT YOUR MONEY MORE THAN YOU

WCBias · Sep 13, 2006

golfing arkansas said:
thanks, ga

example you told me last spring the usc would roll over ark. i was ready to unload on usc
and there several big names on Ark...i try not to play homer games! My local called me here
in Ark and was heavy on usc and asked me to help him with ark, i said no! He then gave
me Ark plus 14 for 5000.00 and i lost that too and i got a great number double the closing line

Wow, if a local calls with a great opportunity, it ain't a great opportunity.

GL man, the tide will turn

fathead · Sep 13, 2006

golfing arkansas said:
my net figure for last 3 yrs is minus 737.00 with about 583,000 wagered

i hear all these people talk about making a living and i'm wondered without
scalping is it possible?????

i never go into any bet witout the best number and/or money mgmt

Minus $737 for 3 years on that betting volume is not really that bad IMO. Learning enough to break even is the first step in learning how to make money. Looks like you are headed in the right direction. Keep at it and I think you will eventually be successful.

If all bettors broke even like you do then the books would go out of business. You are doing better than most.