I have always enjoyed decent success in NFL in the early part of the season as I try and not put too much stock in the 1st few week results. I espicially think that you can make a decent amount by not overreacting to week 1 results.
I have to beleieve that some of these numbers would not be close to the same if it were week 1.
Examples:
Baltimore -3 to maybe -6 if week 1 (now -11.5)
Miami -10 or so if week 1 (this week -6.5)
Carolina at least -3.5 if week 1 (this week -1.5)
Green Bay maybe favored by up to 2 or 3 if week 1 (this week +2 dog)
San Diego -9.5 if week 1 (this week -11)
not saying this the only thing to look at but it should be a part of your thought process going into week 2.
Teams are not as good or as bad as they look after 1 week. It is the NFL and most of the stuff falls in-between.
One of the things I use in NFL in the past, with some success is called the up-down theory. Where you BACK teams that are coming off a bad loss (couple td's or more) or bet AGAINST teams that are coming off a blowout/big win. Does anyone else add this theory into your capping?
I have to beleieve that some of these numbers would not be close to the same if it were week 1.
Examples:
Baltimore -3 to maybe -6 if week 1 (now -11.5)
Miami -10 or so if week 1 (this week -6.5)
Carolina at least -3.5 if week 1 (this week -1.5)
Green Bay maybe favored by up to 2 or 3 if week 1 (this week +2 dog)
San Diego -9.5 if week 1 (this week -11)
not saying this the only thing to look at but it should be a part of your thought process going into week 2.
Teams are not as good or as bad as they look after 1 week. It is the NFL and most of the stuff falls in-between.
One of the things I use in NFL in the past, with some success is called the up-down theory. Where you BACK teams that are coming off a bad loss (couple td's or more) or bet AGAINST teams that are coming off a blowout/big win. Does anyone else add this theory into your capping?