Little gambling trick with forecating line movement....

Iceman · Sep 13, 2006

A little trick I am sure most others on here use for catching some line movement(read about it on here) and it works.

I watch moneylines at Pinny that look too small compared to other books, almost scalpable with one of Pinny's numbers . If this is happening than expect the pointspread number to not be much further behind and to move.

* don't wok all the time but for example about 20 minutes ago Wisconsin moved to -505 moneyline at Pinny and SDSU is +500 at the greek (almost scalpable). I went to Skybook and grabbed free half point (they just moved number a little there) and got +14.5. 14's disappering real quick I expect Wisconsin pointspread to drop, REAL SOON.

Fishhead · Sep 13, 2006

You are a smart man ICE...........that is exactly how one can correctly monitor lines to see where they are going.

Might add, Matchbook is terriffic for this also.

Iceman · Sep 13, 2006

Fishhead said:
You are a smart man ICE...........that is exactly how one can correctly monitor lines to see where they are going.

Might add, Matchbook is terriffic for this also.

thank you learned from some of the best :dancefool

(I think you are the one that showed me this).

+14.5 is a decent number to have, one way to make the free half work for you (IMO)

quantumleap · Sep 13, 2006

Works for soccer lines too.

Iceman · Sep 13, 2006

Not my favorite way but one little trick, as Pinny (IMO) is the market maker.

sean1 · Sep 13, 2006

Another method is to bet you games when the line is at a number you do not want to lose.

For instance if the line is 17, bet it. If it moves to 17.5 you get a better line. If it moves to 16.5 you get a worse line. You chance is 50/50.

Now if the line is 16, wait. If it moves to 17, you get a significantly better line. If it moves to 15 the line is only marginally worse. The move is close to 50/50.

By following this rule when placing bets throughout the week (Obviously at game time, you have to take the line as is) you will improve 50% of the time and get worse 50% of the time, but in value, you will improve far more than you lose.

This assumes you have no forcast of which way a line will move, which is probably a good assumption for 99% of us - myself included.

The only way I can forcast line moves are either to monitor pinnacle all day - too busy, to get insider info (happens), to know it is a very public team or national game when you'll likely see a move to more dog points nad a higher total.)

Of course it does not hurt to keep a computer open to Pinnacle. If you want to bet +17, but pinny has +17 -101, you have a good chance of seeing 17.5. If they have 17 -110, it likely is heading to 16.5

-Sean

Iceman · Sep 13, 2006

very important to focus on getting key numbers or a half point better.

You can also beat slow moving books off the Don Best screen on a steam play.

Fishhead · Sep 14, 2006

sean1 said:
Another method is to bet you games when the line is at a number you do not want to lose.

For instance if the line is 17, bet it. If it moves to 17.5 you get a better line. If it moves to 16.5 you get a worse line. You chance is 50/50.

Now if the line is 16, wait. If it moves to 17, you get a significantly better line. If it moves to 15 the line is only marginally worse. The move is close to 50/50.

By following this rule when placing bets throughout the week (Obviously at game time, you have to take the line as is) you will improve 50% of the time and get worse 50% of the time, but in value, you will improve far more than you lose.

This assumes you have no forcast of which way a line will move, which is probably a good assumption for 99% of us - myself included.

The only way I can forcast line moves are either to monitor pinnacle all day - too busy, to get insider info (happens), to know it is a very public team or national game when you'll likely see a move to more dog points nad a higher total.)

Of course it does not hurt to keep a computer open to Pinnacle. If you want to bet +17, but pinny has +17 -101, you have a good chance of seeing 17.5. If they have 17 -110, it likely is heading to 16.5

-Sean

Could write a 5,000 word essay on what you just said............if sportsbettors want to learn something very valuable, read and understand what SEAN just pointed out here..........digest it.

Iceman · Sep 14, 2006

Fishhead said:
Could write a 5,000 word essay on what you just said............if sportsbettors want to learn something very valuable, read and understand what SEAN just pointed out here..........digest it.

Sean has become one of my favorite posters. Very helpful. :103631605

BBBILLY · Sep 14, 2006

Ok....

Thanks for the insight!!

BBBILLY

Iceman · Sep 16, 2006

Iceman said:
A little trick I am sure most others on here use for catching some line movement(read about it on here) and it works.

I watch moneylines at Pinny that look too small compared to other books, almost scalpable with one of Pinny's numbers . If this is happening than expect the pointspread number to not be much further behind and to move.

* don't wok all the time but for example about 20 minutes ago Wisconsin moved to -505 moneyline at Pinny and SDSU is +500 at the greek (almost scalpable). I went to Skybook and grabbed free half point (they just moved number a little there) and got +14.5. 14's disappering real quick I expect Wisconsin pointspread to drop, REAL SOON.

Wisconsin now down to -12 everywhere. Decent middle set up off this info.

quantumleap · Sep 16, 2006

Ice:

Have you ever taken a side by forecasting line movements rather than just trying for a middle or a scalp?

Iceman · Sep 16, 2006

quantumleap said:
Ice:

Have you ever taken a side by forecasting line movements rather than just trying for a middle or a scalp?

all the time. In fact to much. I bet straight on baseball almost all summer long(lost and had great numbers) and hoops I started to middle but realized that buying back was a huge waste and I ended up winning over $6,500 (betting over 600 games and not more than $100 a game- my whole yearly profit and best run of my life, 56%).

* on a side note - just hit a BIG middle $600 on OSU(-28 and +30.5) about 20 minutes ago and now am close to even on the year betting foots. it a work in progress I hope I figure it out.

Iceman · Sep 16, 2006

hope somone actually played this Wisconsin bet, it middled if you did:toast:

quantumleap · Sep 16, 2006

Iceman said:
hope somone actually played this Wisconsin bet, it middled if you did:toast:

I've been thinking off-and-on all day about this. What percentage of games hit the middle? If it's 1 in 30 I would think it's hardly worth it.

I've been playing line moves in soccer. It's a real art. The line can move the same way for two different teams and mean something different for each team.

Iceman · Sep 16, 2006

quantumleap said:
I've been thinking off-and-on all day about this. What percentage of games hit the middle? If it's 1 in 30 I would think it's hardly worth it.

I've been playing line moves in soccer. It's a real art. The line can move the same way for two different teams and mean something different for each team.

3 big points:

1) reduced juice is HUGE for this, it cuts into your money lost

2) key numbers are EXTREMELEY important

3) must hace multiplie outs ( I am using around 15 right now) because line shopping and getting an extra half a point means EVERYTHING. Still pissed about not getting Boise St -7 earlier today, got greedy and waited for -6.5 and lost the 7.

bottom line you have to make sure what you are doing is a mathmatical fact and I have the info and most of my bets are proven longterm winners in these regards. Thier is a sixthsense on when you pull the trigger to make the bet. Something I am still working on and have a long way to go.

Don't be fooled it is hard work and being orgainized is the key. I am not saying this is some get rich quick scheme

Woody0 · Sep 17, 2006

I got lazy last night and took Nebraska+17.5 instead of searching around when +18.5 was available.

Then I was tired after supper and didn't check out the lines when Nebraska+18.5 and USC-16.5 was live in-play and so missed a chance to get the 18 middle, as the early play would have offered that opportunity at no or little cost

One mistake a day is one too many. Also learned that 18 as well as 17 is a key number!!!!

Little gambling trick with forecating line movement....

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