Is it better to follow the steam ??

kimchee7270 · Sep 15, 2006

just an observation and a Bit curious ..

I noticed a couple of lines and the results ....

last Sunday

kc was -1 and a half and ended with cincy -1 and a half .......CINCY won the money easily !

Atl was +5 and a half and some books ended up with Atl just getting +4 ........Atl won the game outright at carol

and yesterday WV and maryl total 47 and a half went up to 50 by game time ...........total was practically reached by halftime and the game Went Way OVER !

i'm sure there are cases where Following the STEAM has Not Worked , But my Question Is ..........As A Rule , IS IT BETTER To FOllow The STEAM and will percentage of winning be greatly enhanced by Betting with the movement ?? If anyone has done a study on this or if any astute gambler out there has an observation , i'd greatly appreciate it ! thanx ! :103631605

mj23 · Sep 15, 2006

50-50

kimchee7270 · Sep 15, 2006

so there is no clear cut advantage?

steaktartar · Sep 15, 2006

only if you get their number...blindly following steam is quick way to go busted...dallas also as big of a move last week as cincy and they blew

mj23 · Sep 15, 2006

No because some moves are just bait!

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 15, 2006

Steam can heat you up, and burn you. Double edged sword. Too broad of a question. Which sport? NBA past season steam was a dead loser most of the season. Was very bad early this bases season. Just last week in NFL that same Cincy game had over steamed, Dallas was bet hard, along with Zona and Miami. Those all lost. One thing for sure, if you are going with the steam, you will be hard pressed to get down on the originator's number.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

kimchee7270 · Sep 15, 2006

steak tartar said:
only if you get their number...blindly following steam is quick way to go busted...dallas also as big of a move last week as cincy and they blew

good point ... but philly was -4 n went up to -6 and Covered

but just wonderin...in general , R there any advantages 'cause if there is, i'm sure we can all profit from it . I would sincerely love to know the percentages on the results of the line movements to gain an edge if there is one ...thanx for the thoughts ! :103631605

kimchee7270 · Sep 15, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Steam can heat you up, and burn you. Double edged sword. Too broad of a question. Which sport? NBA past season steam was a dead loser most of the season. Was very bad early this bases season. Just last week in NFL that same Cincy game had over steamed, Dallas was bet hard, along with Zona and Miami. Those all lost. One thing for sure, if you are going with the steam, you will be hard pressed to get down on the originator's number.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

thanx man.....damn...i really thought there was something we could exploit besides just the original number !

kimchee7270 · Sep 15, 2006

mj 23 said:
No because some moves are just bait!

Interesting......does pinny n olymp really bait or just try to equalize the action ??/

ElJefe · Sep 15, 2006

It works both ways. When lines move it can be for all sorts of reasons. It could be Phil Steele just released a 5* play or that Wayne Root just released his No-Limit Game of the Month. You need to be really careful when betting just because a line moved.

Kruser6 · Sep 15, 2006

Just as others have said, NO. You can not make money from fading steam. Matter of fact its a terrible way to play if you do it right. You are always playing at the advantage of the books if you do this. You never want to take a worse number then what was available on a frequent basis. When you do this you are setting yourself at a severe disadvantage. If you played all the Steam last week then you would have given up well over 12 points combined. Those 12 points on a weekly basis will destroy you in the end.

-NEVER play bad numbers. Playing bad numbers will lead you to being broke.

Iceman I am sure will come in here and say the same thing.

If you beat the steam though at a slow shop, then yes I would always recommend you follow the steam. Now you are gaining those 12 points or so on a Sunday and over the longhaul thats going to equal money!

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 15, 2006

In the old days certain individual would send out a play, people that thought like you would tag along, push the number even higher, then the originator would come back against the inflated number hard and heavy.

You would then truly be fornicated. Stuck on the wrong side with a bad number. Try and get off, Eastern European middle possiblities abound. That is when you become a fish, have been drawn in by the "bait", hooked and gutted. Does not work in the NFL, as you saw all of those were one way.

But you are missing a even more important point. Let's just say the steam is Oklahoma -16 1/2. The originator gets it, maybe some immediately followers get lucky, but that is it, by the time you get in you are lucky to get 17, and tie. Most likely get the 17 1/2 and again, get hooked like a fish. Another example would be NBA. Let's say you lay -7 Lakers vs. Motown. Everyone in the world follows you, the originator. Best they get is -7 1/2 or higher. Burned again. The kicker, same guy that led you to death proudly comes back and says, well if you were smart, you would have bought to 6 1/2. Believe me it happens. If you are not first in line, you are in line, for the line.

Feel free to print this post and tape it to a wall facing your toilet.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

mj23 · Sep 15, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
In the old days certain individual would send out a play, people that thought like you would tag along, push the number even higher, then the originator would come back against the inflated number hard and heavy.

You would then truly be fornicated. Stuck on the wrong side with a bad number. Try and get off, Eastern European middle possiblities abound. That is when you become a fish, have been drawn in by the "bait", hooked and gutted. Does not work in the NFL, as you saw all of those were one way.

But you are missing a even more important point. Let's just say the steam is Oklahoma -16 1/2. The originator gets it, maybe some immediately followers get lucky, but that is it, by the time you get in you are lucky to get 17, and tie. Most likely get the 17 1/2 and again, get hooked like a fish. Another example would be NBA. Let's say you lay -7 Lakers vs. Motown. Everyone in the world follows you, the originator. Best they get is -7 1/2 or higher. Burned again. The kicker, same guy that led you to death proudly comes back and says, well if you were smart, you would have bought to 6 1/2. Believe me it happens. If you are not first in line, you are in line, for the line.

Feel free to print this post and tape it to a wall facing your toilet.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Now thats a smart frog for you!!

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