Surely you can't win getting a bad number, a few question about ACE.....

bigbet1234 · Sep 17, 2006

Before everyone starts bashing me, I just want to make a few points.

I have read and seen with my own eyes ACE taking a bad number, while a better number was/is available. I have also noticed him buying points for strange reasons.

My question is, can someone be lucky for 2-3 years? I'm sure they can, but his Cincy bet got me thinking yesterday. There were 30-30.5's out there, and pretty sure I seen some 31's. And ACE took 29.5, and that 1 point got him.

My theory is, I always look for the best number, as Im sure most do. If I like a game, and do my homework, and see I could have got it at 1-2-3 points better a day ago, or whatever, I don't bet it. More times then not, those few points will come back to haunt you.

Let me also say, I don't follow ACE that much, I will peak at his picks every once in a while, but thats about it.

This is not a BASH ACE thread, so please don't make it that. I wish him continued success, and hope he does well.

But with the buying of points, getting bad numbers, I think luck plays a big roll into his success, I may be wrong, if I am, please correct me.

BB

TomBrady#1 · Sep 17, 2006

When he released the game that was the line and you can't buy points on that game (too high a line to buy points at least at many books like Pinny).....he usually posts the best available line. His line was correct. ANd as far as buying points anyway most of the time it does not matter 16% according to Ace. He is too smart to post bad lines....and so aren't most other in this area.

Iceman · Sep 17, 2006

I agree his biggest weakness by far is his advise to his followers on line shopping, just seems like it is not stressed enough. I have won this year(and not alot) becasue of one reason and it is I ALWAYS find the best line. There is no secret to my success other than looking all over for the best number and deciding what to do with it.

Raider44 · Sep 17, 2006

If Ace is going to win which he does I am sure he shops for value. The Bowling Green game was a winner for me because of that as well as Cincinnati. I also went against both bets on middles and won that way too. I think Ace is cautious to post lines that others may not be able to get and showing them inflated or deflated. He has been doing this to long and made to much money not to.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 17, 2006

No one in the long run can make up for those losses. One of the most important aspects of professional betting is getting the best number. There are a few things you should not do. You should not buy anything on spreads that are double digits or higher, that will lose money very quick, is a low % move. Even worse is either getting a number when it is played out, taking +29 1/2 when opener is 34, those 4 1/2 points you did not get can easily make the difference between a winner and a loser. Even worse is not being able to forecast line movement, the Bowling Green game. Laying 5 when that was the absolute worst number, as it closed -3 1/2. Could you have gotten them -3? Again, this was not a bullet dodged, it also hit. You need an awful lot of luck to overcome betting bad numbers. The +29 1/2 was 30 on the baord at certain stores when released, that I know. This is not an ACE bash, just answering the question.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Were the middles that were supposed to be set up by all of this steam supposed to be Polish middles nflplayer?

dimeplayersonly · Sep 17, 2006

extra vig and bad numbers will beat anybody in the long run.....fact

ask anybody in the business

JudgeWapner · Sep 17, 2006

Bingo.

dimeplayersonly · Sep 17, 2006

judge...........you doing anything this season???

or you still sitting on the beach drinking out of a coconut..lol

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 17, 2006

dimeplayersonly said:
extra vig and bad numbers will beat anybody in the long run.....fact

ask anybody in the business

Thanks for the cliff notes version. Yes, that is a fact Jack.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

I had similar circumstances when releasing my hoops. One game just got smoked out of the gate, before I could bet it or release it. I was probably asleep. But I flat out said it would be a disservice to release a play already bet out, and all of the value bled. My analogy was the ship at the dock. If the ship sails without you, do you jump off the dock and swim after it, risk drowning, or sit at the dock of the bay and wait for the next one? I sit at the dock of the bay. Otis Redding

D2bets · Sep 17, 2006

OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
No one in the long run can make up for those losses. One of the most important aspects of professional betting is getting the best number. There are a few things you should not do. You should not buy anything on spreads that are double digits or higher, that will lose money very quick, is a low % move. Even worse is either getting a number when it is played out, taking +29 1/2 when opener is 34, those 4 1/2 points you did not get can easily make the difference between a winner and a loser. Even worse is not being able to forecast line movement, the Bowling Green game. Laying 5 when that was the absolute worst number, as it closed -3 1/2. Could you have gotten them -3? Again, this was not a bullet dodged, it also hit. You need an awful lot of luck to overcome betting bad numbers. The +29 1/2 was 30 on the baord at certain stores when released, that I know. This is not an ACE bash, just answering the question.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Were the middles that were supposed to be set up by all of this steam supposed to be Polish middles nflplayer?

So hypothetically if the number opens +34 and closes +24, you would not want to have +29.5 because it's not the best number?

nflplayer · Sep 17, 2006

D2bets lets see getting minny+1 and now getting carolina +2.5, don't forget you can buy carolina up to +3 with little juice. But no I have been following the man and getting richer by the week for all you haters out there.

nflplayer · Sep 17, 2006

Bigbet, but if you have read ACE's post there were people that got numbers better then him. How do we know or any knows what number ACE got Minny at a few days before he posted minny was at +2, +2.5. He can also give out false moves and hit the other side. Not being selfish, but honestly if I had a big following you better believe I would be giving out some false moves. Why not tell everyone he liked kc last week and hit cincy. But from what I see ACE is pretty straight up with us all.

nflplayer · Sep 17, 2006

Before anyone bashes me buying points off or on 3 is -120 to -130 not little juice.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 17, 2006

D2bets said:
So hypothetically if the number opens +34 and closes +24, you would not want to have +29.5 because it's not the best number?

Best relative to the ship ten miles from the dock. It is all relative. But if that number in history, opener, got steamed down, let's just say from 34, to 29 1/2, I know 29 1/2 is not the best number, never will be. If I am looking at a game, we will say that one, and taking the dog, in this case I knew I would from before the opener. It is a schedule/sandwich play. I am going to get the ship at the dock. When it has moved 4 1/2 points, 9 1/2's, that is a sure sign I missed the boat, and a ton of value. If you start splitting hairs and trying to determine is there any value left, or it travels down furthur, that is irrelevant. You want the best number for the best value, not the leftover number with whatever value remains if any. No, I never want the 29 1/2. I will pass and wait for a better opportunity.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Dssemulator · Sep 17, 2006

I think this especially hurts those of us that cap a game and then "wait" to see Ace's plays before pulling the trigger. This results in us getting the bad numbers at the end of the week....Granted, if it wasn't for close games like this weekend we wouldn't probably be having this discussion. In the end nobody is forcing us to do anything, it is our money and our picks.
Good Luck everybody! :103631605

nflplayer · Sep 17, 2006

For all you haters I made money on middling the under 40 on denver and taking it back with lots of juice that is the easiest money anybody can make. I look at it this way why even cap if people give you free money. I give advice for people because I do this for a living might think that I'm cocky but I am getting bashed to death by people who don't know what the fuc they are doing.

nflplayer · Sep 17, 2006

Dssemulator the secret is unless you like the numbers early wait to see what ACE has to pick because it is so hard to fade the man because he is so hot right now. Why not just not play some other games you like instead of the ones ACE has, saved me with kc last week. Common sense will tell you that when ACE picks especially nfl the lines are going to move. If you have a decent bankroll just middle his plays and make anywhere between 4-10 cents. That is pretty good, sure beats making 40,000 a year.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 17, 2006

How much did you make buying the Bowling Green -5? Absolutely nothing you predicted came true, nothing. Maybe that is why you get bashed. You actually bring the haters out, just by your posts. Did you ever try to build someone up and actually have the opposite effect?

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

max1234 · Sep 17, 2006

NFL,

From reading what you've written over the last few days, I would have to say if you're making a 'living from this' then you're probably homeless.

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Sep 17, 2006

Yes, my bs alarm goes off regularly with nflplayers posts. And his common sense approach is downright scary. Yes, I sit by my computer and wait to see what ACE is going to do. In fact, if I faded him, I would have to because they all moved against him in the NCAA, except for already played out Cincy. And that did enable a middle also, just not for his followers. And so hot right now? Better take a long look at the NCAA report, because I think you don't know the results, or having a opposite defintion of being hot. But if anyone questions anything ACE does, legit question or not, his self appointed defender will label you a hater. And tell you how easy it is to profit from ACE. I don't hate anyone who makes me money. And yes, it is getting easy to profit. I am sure that everyone who bought that Cincy just a few days earlier, or at the same time with a better number, also got the benefit of all the followers driving it down to 28. Yes, ACE provided us a profit there also. Thanks for the heads up nflplayer.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

Is bad pr worse than no pr?