three tonight with analysis

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Chicago +2.00 over PHILADELPHIA

We mentioned yesterday how Jon Leiber should not be this big a price over anyone and that also holds true for Jamie Moyer. Moyer is a good pitcher, don’t get us wrong, however, this price is just insane and we’re on it. The Cubs are giving the Phillies a very hard time and Chicago is actually playing some pretty good ball. They’ve won three in a row, outscored opponents 26-9 and hit 11 homers during the current run and they’ve also won six of eight. Now let’s talk about Wade Miller, a former Astro, who dominated the mound for years. Miller has missed the entire season up to two starts ago and upon returning he was hit pretty hard by the Braves. He can be excused for that after not pitching all year. In his last start he was back to his old, brilliant self, throwing a one-hitter in five innings against the Dodgers and tonight he makes his third start of the year. Another big-time overlay on the Cubs here. Play: Chicago +2.00 (Risking 1.5 units).
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Detroit +1.03 over CHICAGO<o:p></o:p>
After a big run last year all the way to the World Series and a fight for a playoff spot all year this year, it now appears that the South Side is out of gas. They just don’t have much left and who could blame them. On the other side is the Detroit Tigers, a team that has picked it up again after a mini-slump and a team that’s wants it twice as badly as Chicago. Justin Verlander is reliable and consistent and he doesn’t often walk anyone. He comes in with a very respectable ERA of 3.42 and his road ERA is just a fraction higher at 3.53. Freddy Garcia is not nearly as reliable. You never really know what you’re going to get with him and while he can be very good, he can also be horrible and his overall ERA is 1½-runs higher than our guy. Anyway, we like the fact that the Tigers are battling hard and we can’t say the same for the South Side; they’re done. Play: Detroit +1.03 (Risking 1.5 units). <o:p></o:p>
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Minnesota +1.10 over BOSTON<o:p></o:p>
We’re not going to put too much emphasis on the starting pitchers here; instead we’ll focus on this situation, which is a very good one for the Twinkies and not a good one for the Red Sox. You see, the Red Sox are out but brought it all to New York over the weekend in what they likely considered their “playoffs”. They played back-to-back doubleheaders, won four of the five games and had a day off yesterday. Asking them to get up for this series after a five game series with the Yanks and with just a couple of weeks left in the season, plus a day off yesterday is a tall order and one we don’t believe they’ll meet. For Boston, the season ended after the weekend series and it’s not like they’re playing the Devil Rays, they’re playing a team that is tooth and nails to beat every night and we’ll side with gladly side with the visitor under these circumstances. Play: Minnesota +1.10 (Risking 1.5 units).
 

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