-115 GOP to Retain control of the House

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This is about the best bet one could make right now! Most statistical analyses put the odds of the Dems taking control of the house at around 20-25%. At -115 (TradeSports, I'm sure you can find it elsewhere) this is amazing value :103631605

http://www.slate.com/id/2149839/nav/tap1/
 

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Good bet. Nice article. Things don't happen overnight.

The Dems will win more seats, but control is a whole different cookie.

Nobody gets 60/40 which is actual real control.
 

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Even cheaper at Pinnacle, with Dems the slight favourite:

Control of U.S. House of Representatives: Control of U.S. House of Representatives

Tue 11/7 In 2006 will Republicans retain control ?
Maximum Wager: 500.00 USD
06:00 AM

503 Yes -104
504 No -106
 

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That article is idiotic. It starts with the assumption that there are 24 "tossups" and that each one has a 50% chance to go either way and that the rest are decided. OK, so there are no races that are 60/40 or 80/20 or anything like that. Stupidest thing I've ever heard. That article couldn't have been more useless.

Repubs are good at stealing national elections, but I'm not sure they can pull this one off on a large scale. Take the Dems and the + money.
 

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D2bets said:
That article is idiotic. It starts with the assumption that there are 24 "tossups" and that each one has a 50% chance to go either way and that the rest are decided. OK, so there are no races that are 60/40 or 80/20 or anything like that. Stupidest thing I've ever heard. That article couldn't have been more useless.

Repubs are good at stealing national elections, but I'm not sure they can pull this one off on a large scale. Take the Dems and the + money.
Yeah it's crap.

When your party is getting slaughtered, just say it's all a toss up.

Rude awakening coming very soon. :)
 

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D2bets said:
That article is idiotic. It starts with the assumption that there are 24 "tossups" and that each one has a 50% chance to go either way and that the rest are decided. OK, so there are no races that are 60/40 or 80/20 or anything like that. Stupidest thing I've ever heard. That article couldn't have been more useless.

Repubs are good at stealing national elections, but I'm not sure they can pull this one off on a large scale. Take the Dems and the + money.
Doesn't the fact that they're "tossups" mean that they can't be much more than 50/50? Otherwise don't you think all those political strategists wouldn't be naming them "TOSS UPS?"

Maybe 55/45 or 60/40 being the most extreme, but you really think there is an 80/20 "tossup" out there?
 

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Bush's approval rating 'skyrocketed' this week (up to a whopping 44%, lmao, from 39%.) He let Katie Couric interview him last week, and today I saw him on CNN with Wolf Blitzer. Not like him to interview outside of Fox.

Then there's the whole Chavez/Ahmadinejad UN speech thing ... nothing unites a people (any people) more than having outside forces saying nasty things about their country and president, especially when it's two nutters like these guys.

On matters of national security, the public favours the Repubs immensely. And the Republicans are doing a fine job of keeping the media spotlight on this issue. Immigration, gov't spending, wiretaps, etc. are hardly on the radar right now. If the Dems can't swing the emphasis onto subjects they can win at, they will lose.

If Bin Laden pops up again with a new "Infidels R U.S." video, this one is in the bag.

I give the edge to the Rove machine.
 

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cklennon said:
Doesn't the fact that they're "tossups" mean that they can't be much more than 50/50? Otherwise don't you think all those political strategists wouldn't be naming them "TOSS UPS?"

Maybe 55/45 or 60/40 being the most extreme, but you really think there is an 80/20 "tossup" out there?

Yes, these are not gamblers. That article has every race divided into either decided or a tossup. That's just idiocy. Even if you define tossup as 60/40 (which that article doesn't factor in), you are telling me that there no races between 61 and 99%? Everything is between 40-60% or 100/0? In its attempt to simplify the article renders itself useless. The appropriate way to handicap would be to place as close to accurate as possible line on each and every race and then run the simulations. That would be the mathematical approach. The article's approach is laughable.
 

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xpanda said:
Bush's approval rating 'skyrocketed' this week (up to a whopping 44%, lmao, from 39%.) and today I saw him on CNN with Wolf Blitzer.

.
Watching it right now. Wolf is making him look so bad.
 

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I wouldn't go so far as to say the approach is laughable. In fact, I think the approach is laudable, it's just oversimplified. But let's not forget that you're reading a pop politics online magazine...simplification is a must.
 

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cklennon said:
But let's not forget that you're reading a pop politics online magazine...simplification is a must.
It's just that it is so difficult to find ones that are unbiased. It's virtually impossible.
 

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RobFunk said:
Watching it right now. Wolf is making him look so bad.

This might be the first time that Bush seems to actually have some idea of what he's talking about. Don't get me wrong, I still disagree with what he's saying, but at least he's giving actual answers that are more than just a few typical soundbites.

Score one for Bush.

Full interview tonight at 7 EST.
 

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xpanda said:
This might be the first time that Bush seems to actually have some idea of what he's talking about. Don't get me wrong, I still disagree with what he's saying, but at least he's giving actual answers that are more than just a few typical soundbites.

Score one for Bush.

Full interview tonight at 7 EST.
You are probably right actually. I have never seen GWB talk that much without blinking a lot!
 
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The dems WILL take control. The republican party is in denial about how bad off they are.

This is going to be beautiful seeing the country turn blue. It's time to pull the plug on this religious right bullshit.
 

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I have to say that it is very interesting that the odds are only -115

As a guy that follow politics closely, my thinking was the Democrats would narrow the gap, but not take control.
 
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Bush is going for the public appearances because every Republican out there is hoping they are not tied to him or Iraq. Even Arnold has an ad from his opponent saying George W. Bush, over and over in that thick accent. It is effective. GWub polls were so low over just about everything he had to do the talk show circuit. So he inched up from totally incompetent to inept. He spoke intelligently for a few minutes longer than usual. All is not forgiven. Our National Debt is like a runaway gas pump, ding, ding, dinging nonstop, in Iraq. What party had the Presidency, and maybe even more important here, the Vice Presidency, the house and senate when we entered their civil war? How many billion trillion has it cost? Have we made any progress? The voters could vote a mass exodus of the Republican party, I have seen it before. When you have candidates trying to distance themselves from the president, you have serious issues. Those odds are sharp, it is a toss up. The polls I see have the currents at below 35%. Sometimes below that. I would hate to have 2/3's of the voters disgruntled at my party and watch them vote demo down the entire ticket. Those odds could change rapidly.


Best Wishes...OF :howdy:
 

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Current Projection of Congressional Quarterly in the House:

Republican safe, favorable, leans: 220
Democratic safe, favorable leans: 203
No Clear Favorite: 12

The GOP has a lot more money, a far better get out the vote program, and more importantly, a 231-202 lead. Getting -110 to -120 is a bargain.
 

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