Who in Hell Bets the Money Line on Heavy Favorites?

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sd2

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At Pinnacle the money line on Ga Tech tonite is -1000. There must be some people who would actually bet a grand to win a c-note.

Why? You'd have to be right on such games 10 times out of 11 to win a small amount.

It's a lot like "bridge jumping" in horse racing. This is where someone gets the bright idea to bet their inheritance to show on a 1-2 shot in a stakes race. Can't fail to at least get third -- they think.

Every season at the big tracks seems to bring out the bridge jumpers. I know at Del Mar, almost every season, there are one or two jumpers in attendance. Once I saw something like $50k go into the show pool at one flash, on a overwhelming favorite in a stakes race.

Tracks suffer minus pools when this happens, so to limit thier losses they only pay off a nickle to the dollar. IE, $2.10 to show. But the jumpers feel it's a bargain, as they make a fast and easy 5% on their money.

In the case cited above, the hot Del Mar fave stumbled badly coming out of the gate, and finished out of the money.

Crazy shit. A jumper would have to cash 20 out of 21 tickets to show a profit.

It looks like the same with those who bet the heavy college foots faves on the money line. Why do they do it?
 

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I Know It's Just Me Again, But I Have Done Well With Not 1000/100
Plays But 400/100 Plays. "i" Feel More Comfortable Especially On A Cold Handicapping Streak To Come Out Of It With Good Solid Favorites.....

People Have Hammered Me Earlier This Season When I Said I Was Going To Bet Selected Money Line Favorites.....

I Have Been On The Right Side Of Those More Often Than Kansas
Plus 5.5 Playing Toledo And Losing By A Touchdown In Overtime

I'M TAKING ONE ON THE OTHERSIDE THIS WEEKEND ARIZONA PLUS 1500 AGAINST USC
 

Retired; APRIL 2014 Thank You Gambling
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-1000... you call that lg,,, lol,,, no,, -4000 ml now thats insane,,,

your perspective is a bit skewed, in that one can do ML parlays, mix up 3 of those Home Faves with good running/pass completion %s and find some value,

also,,,, with the Gtech game,,, you can also RISK 100 to win 10,,, My point,,

its all relative to ones BR,,,,, the example you use with 50 Dimes, I would hope the guy has a 20 mil dollar BR,,, lol

its all about Perspective, and value,,,

tater
 

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Layers on exchanges and bookies themselves will bet -1000 (and much shorter) every day of the week.
 

WVU

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zona + 1500 against USC doesn't sound half bad. Surely they would win 1 or 2 out of 15 times
 

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ONE REASON is people throw the game into many a parlay hell why not, If the parlay was to pay a grand throwing this game in would up it 100 bucks.
 

Cui servire est regnare
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i'll throw the -1000 in a parley, basically no chance in hell it will lose, and it will increase the payout..
 

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If I think Ga Tech can win 14 out of 15 in such games, I wouldn't mind betting a dime on -1000.
 

sd2

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wrongturn said:
If I think Ga Tech can win 14 out of 15 in such games, I wouldn't mind betting a dime on -1000.

Check your logs over the last few years (or many years) on college football, and see how many big upsets there are. Just like in horse racing. Decades ago some fool bet his entire inheritance on Native Dancer to win the Ky Derby. The "grey ghost" had trouble at the gate and some equine nonentity called, I think, Dark Star beat him.

Just look at Oklahoma's opening game last season. A -25 fave, beaten SU by TCU. Wonder what the ML was on that game, and how many foots bridge jumpers who backed the Sooners on the ml went down in flames? And how many "sure thing" parlays dumped?

Oh sure, they will win SU most of the time. But a foots "jumper" need more than "most of the time." He need virtually "all of the time." You ask about Ga Tech. Ready?

IN THE LAST 5 YEARS GEORGIA TECH WAS A -10 OR HIGHER FAVORITE 11 TIMES. THEY LOST, STRAIGHT UP, TWO OF THOSE GAMES, IN '02 TO WAKE, AND IN '03 TO - GET THIS - DUKE! Again, why make this wager? Bad, bad bet.

I can see taking a big dog on the ML, occasionally, if you know what you're doing. Not the big fave,tho.
 

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not my style of bet, but with exchanges these heavy ML's can get real cheap, like -1100/ +1070, unheard of low vig compared to a book.
 

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I wasn't saying I would bet Ga Tech on -1000 on this game. Like what you said, if I looked its past history, I probably won't bet on it, unless I have more inside information that books don't know about. I am just saying even heavy favourites occasionally still have value, if you know they are even better than the books think they are.
 

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Just took CSI over Grey's Anatomy for ratings tonight at -600 for the max. Does that count?
 

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I love doing money line parlays and sometimes I can't resist doing the big favorites 350 and above but I try to stay below -300. With that said you will find a 500 or 600 in the NFL that loses almost every week.
 

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Im 2-0 this year at betting 3 teamers where I get $0.45 or so on the dollar regardless of the ml...all in college...won't go to the pros. I have no problem with high ml...so my $40 to $80 wager will return somewhere around 1-2 odds...I think the high ml favs over 800 have somewhere near a 1-12 or worse chance of losing...so in this regard I think its not that bad...
 

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Bridge-jumper parlays aren't good, learned from Fezz you'll never get the best ML on 3 heavy fav's all at one book, doesn't mean you can't catch an undervalued -1100 at M*****N, but not my betting style.

Texas -1100 might be great against North Texas, I just don't play that stuff, I do enough already !

Good bonus stuff, if you can afford to lay 5 dimes on the chalk.
 

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wrongturn said:
If I think Ga Tech can win 14 out of 15 in such games, I wouldn't mind betting a dime on -1000.

That is what the answer should be. It's all about your perceived value in a number. I've layed 10 to 1 when I felt the team would win 29 out of 30. I felt I was getting a great number. It also helps the physce when your on a cold streak to just win a small wager of $50 or $100 on a big ML just to get a win under your belt.
 

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can anybody say "mike tyson vs buster douglas". there was a bridge jumper at the mirage, for that one.
 

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ive gotten stuck hard already this year bookin ml bets first week pats last week sd and indy so yeah there are some people that do that nonesense just crazy laying that big to make short
 

I am the beetman, goo goo g'joob.
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I didn't like Georgia Tech last night but I do like Ohio St tomorrow, and I'd gladly bet Ohio St (or any other 17 point favorite I liked) -750 on a betting exchange if someone was willing to take my offer. I would probably risk about 1.5 units to win 0.2 units.

There's actually lower variance in betting big chalk moneylines than betting dog ones. Of course, the problem is that you have to be selective with which moneylines you take.
 

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