arty:
The best thing about flat betting is more PSYCHOLOGICAL than anything else.
For non-professionals (i.e. most of us), flat betting takes away the element of:
For non-professionals (i.e. most of us), flat betting takes away the element of:
(a) chasing with 5 unit plays when you're losing
(b) using the term "house money" to double up when you're winning
Flat betting is the "disciplinarian" that most people need.(b) using the term "house money" to double up when you're winning
shack is absoultey correct in the above statement....
if im playing a system (that is non-progressive), ill flat bet it 100% of the time.... im talking about a mechanical system...
however there are certain times in the year, and for me, this is with football or big basketball games, that call for larger wagers.. for me, the norm is to bet a nickel on a small amount of football games on the weekend and bump some of these to a dime......
last weekend, i made 3 bets all weekend....... 2 for dimes and one nickel.. the loser was florida for a nickel..... so nice weekend...
ive burnt completely out on the day to day rigors of capping an entire card... id rather have a mechancial system that is going to show a good return and turn in the wagers (flat betting) in just a few minutes time..
im posting the plays in the newbie room for the ML dog system... just look in there.....
if im playing a system (that is non-progressive), ill flat bet it 100% of the time.... im talking about a mechanical system...
however there are certain times in the year, and for me, this is with football or big basketball games, that call for larger wagers.. for me, the norm is to bet a nickel on a small amount of football games on the weekend and bump some of these to a dime......
last weekend, i made 3 bets all weekend....... 2 for dimes and one nickel.. the loser was florida for a nickel..... so nice weekend...
ive burnt completely out on the day to day rigors of capping an entire card... id rather have a mechancial system that is going to show a good return and turn in the wagers (flat betting) in just a few minutes time..
im posting the plays in the newbie room for the ML dog system... just look in there.....
It all comes down to the winning rate that you've got with the system. If you can characterize the system sufficiently to identify subpopulations with a higher winning percentage, then you can bet a high percentage on those. If you can't identify a subpopulation then there's no reason to raise/lower the size of the bets. No reason that doesn't involve gambling, anyway.
In my personal experience, I've found it extremely helpful to try and identify these subpopulations. Generally, if I find a profitable pattern, it's only because that group contains a subpopulation that is accounting for much of the positive expectation.
In my personal experience, I've found it extremely helpful to try and identify these subpopulations. Generally, if I find a profitable pattern, it's only because that group contains a subpopulation that is accounting for much of the positive expectation.
all the hard work for system plays comes in the form of back testing, along with setting up the defined set of filters to be used.. I dont believe in playing anything "across the board" so to speak,,,,, however i do believe in a defined set of filters and never altering from them..... when i play a system, i cannot handicap it as well....... today im on redsox, doesnt matter if i dont want to play against Lilly at home, i must do it anyway... it makes no difference what i think personally..... thats why i have a system.
i dont believe you can "pick and choose" within a system.... because if you do, there really is no system.....
i dont believe you can "pick and choose" within a system.... because if you do, there really is no system.....
SSI said:
Of course you can.
You could have a simplistic system like this:
- Play all home dogs in the NBA (and suppose this hits at 60%)
- Play all home dogs when opponent is coming off back-to-back games (and this could hit at 65%)
THAT is what salain is talking about when he says:
Generally, if I find a profitable pattern, it's only because that group contains a subpopulation that is accounting for much of the positive expectation.
I am not a fan of flat wagers. I look at 1AA foots for example. I trust my own power ratings & knowledge of the teams to bet almost the entire board every week.
However I do love certain games over others & I will step out with confidence to keep sending it in on those games. I would be cheating myself if I didn't.
However I do love certain games over others & I will step out with confidence to keep sending it in on those games. I would be cheating myself if I didn't.
SSI said:
You'd have to look at the records on the two seperately. It is possible that all of the games not in the subset are 50/50, in which case you'd be best off refining what your system criteria are, rather than betting them variably.
But as you say, if the set of all other home dogs is statistically profitable, then they deserve a bet, no doubt.
It takes either a lot of information or a high winning percentage for any of this to come into play. But we've all got variations on it that will work.
