Help with buying back the other side

ensign_lee · Sep 23, 2006

Hi everyone. Here's the situation:

Early in the week, I got Baltimore -6.5 at +101 at Pinnacle for $750.

I got it with the full intention of buying back the other side at +money or trying to middle the game, and just leaving a slightly bigger than normal bet leaning on Baltimore.

So here are my possible choices at this point:

A) At Pinnacle, take +6.5 on the Browns for +105 for $500

B) At Pinnacle, take +7 on the Browns for -106 for $500

C) At Bodog, take +7.5 on the Browns for -115 for $500

I don't normally mess with this stuff that often, so I'd appreciate input from y'all. Which option would you choose?

Journeyman · Sep 23, 2006

Definitely not #2

viking611 · Sep 23, 2006

If you were plannin on buyin back...take a shot on the 7.5

JudgeWapner · Sep 23, 2006

I'm with Vik. At -115, I think it would make the most sense.

ensign_lee · Sep 23, 2006

Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well.

The big difference is that with option A, I'm getting +101 on one side and +105 on the other, but no middle opportunity.

For Option C, it seems I'm paying 14 cents for that middle, which really isn't that much different from paying 20 cents for simple BUYING that middle, right?

Journeyman · Sep 23, 2006

ensign_lee said:
Yeah, that's what I was thinking as well.

The big difference is that with option A, I'm getting +101 on one side and +105 on the other, but no middle opportunity.

For Option C, it seems I'm paying 14 cents for that middle, which really isn't that much different from paying 20 cents for simple BUYING that middle, right?

yep...atleast you are on a nice round number like 7 though....I would just take the + money, I'm sure one of the numbers guys will tell you this is a losing prop long term...depending on your own circumstances you might just let it ride and hope Balto wnd by a TD.

ensign_lee · Sep 23, 2006

I definitely thought about letting it ride, but I'm not entirely comfortable staying HUGE on a side with 85% (EIGHT-FIVE?!?!?!?!) of the public with me, and the books barely moving the line (and not even really moving it until today).

viking611 · Sep 23, 2006

you might as well try for that middle on the 7...don't know the numbers but if you want off that's the best play in my opinion...worth the few bucks i think.

Journeyman · Sep 23, 2006

The Ravens have struggled in Cleveland ever since the Browns came back...they seem to always play down to them in Cleveland.

nimue77 · Sep 23, 2006

+6.5 +105 is the best, 7 is not worth 11 cents and 9 cents isn't worth it either.

ensign_lee · Sep 23, 2006

Anybody else have any thoughts?

randyrohm · Sep 23, 2006

Wait and buy back at the sqarest out you have. Not enough sharp money in the world to keep this one below +7 +105 at your favorite square shop Sun.

Doug · Sep 23, 2006

Those numbers are all really close. I'd do it with my free half on the 7, or wait for SIA. I think Randy is correct in square shop (SIA) having a great number available to anyone, try about 1-2 hours before gametime.

ensign_lee · Sep 24, 2006

Ok.
So, I started doing the math and everything, and this is what I have for my three options, thought out completely:

Option A) Currently, I can take CLE +6.5 at (+105) at Pinnacle. Hopefully, later this number will be EVEN higher.

What this basically means is that I have Baltimore -6.5 (+101) and Cleveland +6.5 (+105), which means that if I bet the same amount (25 units), I will come out ahead regardless of the outcome

Option B) I can currently get CLE +7 at lots of books for around -105. With any luck, I'll be able to get CLE +7 for PLUS money, and then I'll be SUPER-HAPPY.

But let's assume that I don't, and the odds stay at around -105. If I bet 15.75 units to win 15 units at that, then that will effectively cancel my bet. However, if Baltimore happens to win by 7, I'll be very, very happy, because the CLE +7 bet will push, and the BAL -6.5 bet will win.

Should anything else happen, I will lose .75 units. So Option B effectively turns my original bet into a completely different one: I would in essence be risking .75 units to win 25 units, with the only winning result being Baltimore winning by 7.

So Option B boils down to whether or not I want to take (+3333) on BAL winning by exactly 7 for a .75 unit bet.

One caveat to that, though, would be that this way, if Cleveland covered the +7 (which I think may happen), then I will break even. woohoo!

Option C) Bodog is currently offering CLE +7.5 (-115) which I could take. If I could get this thing at anything CLOSE to -105 or (dare I dream) +100, I would be super-happy.

With this, I would hop off my Baltimore bet completely, risking 17.25 units to win 15 units on CLE +7.5.

However, if Baltimore won by EXACTLY 7, in this instance, I would be super-uber SUPER HAPPY. If Baltimore won by EXACTLY SEVEN, I would WIN my Baltimore -6.5 bet AND win my Cleveland +7.5 bet.

So Option C is effectively me risking the juice (2.1 units) to win 30.5 units, or getting +1452.

As with Option B, we have one caveat: If Cleveland covers the +7, then I lose nothing with the way I laid out the bets in this example.

ensign_lee · Sep 24, 2006

Thought I'd give y'all a little more info to work with. Thanks for the help, guys!

ensign_lee · Sep 24, 2006

*note: for the above options, that would involve me buying back the ENTIRE bet, rather than just part of it.

Doug · Sep 24, 2006

The 33-1 only exists because of the timing of now scalpable initial bet. You can make 4 cents of the initial price. I'd want some shot of siding it, if not middling it.

ensign_lee · Sep 24, 2006

Bodog has -7.5 (-105). I'm taking it.

Thanks for the help, y'all!

nimue77 · Sep 26, 2006

I misspoke thinking this was a college game. 7.5 -115 is the play - though you can't go wrong with +6.5 +105 either. It's a toss-up really.

nimue77 said:
+6.5 +105 is the best, 7 is not worth 11 cents and 9 cents isn't worth it either.

tennis28 · Sep 26, 2006

Pinnacle would tell you the half points onto and off of the 7 are worth 13-14 cents each, or 27cents total. Since bodog is only "charging" you 20 cents against the line pinnacle is offering, bodog's line is the best, and it's really not all that close.