If a poster started out the NFL season 15-0, how would you as a fellow poster handle?

Iceman · Sep 25, 2006

lets say a well respected poster came on here and started the 1st 3 weeks of NFL 15-0 (all documented on here) how would you handle this:

A) follow him all year

B) follow him till he cooled off

C) not even look or pay attention

D) take into consideration his plays but not play blindly

E) none of the above

Just curious what kind of following a RED HOT capper could get if he started off undefeated and put up some unheard of winning streak

For myself I would just sit back and watch. I don't put no more stock into a capper who is 0-15 or 15-0. Just too small of a sampler size (IMO).

I am willing to bet that this would cause a HUGE following to take place. Its what have you done for me lately in the betting world.

Teddykgb · Sep 25, 2006

If someone posted a 15-0 record everygamblersdream would post it at peep's place and they would have fun for hours calling the guy a square.

Sugarbear · Sep 25, 2006

Take into consideration his plays but not play blindly.

WVU · Sep 25, 2006

the poster is lucky period. You can add to your luck by shopping lines. Other than that it is pretty much a crapshoot, long term.

Iceman · Sep 25, 2006

should rephrase the question to read:

"Would he create a following?"

I am saying 100% yes he would.

I don't think many will admit to following him but I beleive that most would, at least till the streak ended.

WVU · Sep 25, 2006

yes he would create a following.

the reason being the average gambler is retarded and superstitious

FairWarning · Sep 25, 2006

My friends would fade him immediately.

Journeyman · Sep 25, 2006

I remember we had a guy named Don Marco who was on a run like this in the WNBA about 3 years ago...

viking611 · Sep 25, 2006

C...who gives a fukc.

wrongturn · Sep 26, 2006

If he had posted his picks in the past and also was generally successful, I would seriously pay attention to his picks. In short, if he is a proven winner, he must know something.

PokerKingJim · Sep 26, 2006

15 plays is nothing more than a hot/lucky streak. Hitting 55% over the course or 3-4 seasons is infinitely more impressive.

Does the Rx pay you to start these posts?

Iceman · Sep 26, 2006

Poker King Jim said:
15 plays is nothing more than a hot/lucky streak. Hitting 55% over the course or 3-4 seasons is infinitely more impressive.

Does the Rx pay you to start these posts?

I wished they paid me (LOL). I agree with you. The things that crack me up is a certain bettor on here has a nice run over whta amounts to 3 NFL seasons and people expect the same results going forward.

This is not a criticism of the indiviual capper but if you don't take into account line movement and shopping for lines that I can almost guarantee that this player or the followers will have a losing year.

My point is that I bet that if a capper started out 15-0 or something absurd would be have a HUGE following from then forward. Just wanted to see alot of players step up here and admit it.

I would rather learn from guys that explain how to win with smart ideas that in the long run you can use to improve your bottom line than a true capper. That is what I use this forum for.

I am not a statistics major or anything like that but I would have to beleive that you would need close to 10 years (if averging) around 5 plays a week to get a true idea of a cappers future in such a little volume sport as the NFL. Just warinng people that NO ONE on here isn't susceptibile to a losing year in ANY sport and this past baseball season proved that around the forums.

My advice (if anyone wants it is to use it) is to learn from these forums what has worked thousands and thousands of times in the past to help predict the future. For example -2.5 (-110) and +3.5 (-110) is a PROVEN profitable trend since the beginning of the NFL "pointspread era". If you make that play going forward (and you have the 6th sense to predict line movement) than that is a proven mathmatical (sp) edge and should ALWAYS win.

NFL_BLITZ · Sep 26, 2006

Good question, i'm new here, but have been reading on here for a while and have been betting a long time (primarily NFL.) Someone could go 50-0 it wouldn't impress me. Noone knows anything for certain, despite what some people do attempt to boast on here. Teasing the right games is the best way to go for the simple fact that you can nail every single aspect of a game. Weather conditions, defensive schemes, coaching, tendencies, etc, etc, etc, but if the last three plays of the game are mistakes by one team vs. another, every SINGLE aspect of that game can be thrown out the window.

If you are really good, you can pick 2-3 games per week (on average) and over the long run have a winning record betting straight, but, again, you have to really get the better end of the line more times then not -- that's the key. Someone on here got New Orleans +9 this week. That line is 6.5 -7 everywhere i'm looking right now. I think Carolina may beat them by double digits in this game, but nonetheless, you can't argue the play at +9. I'm also weary of betting early in the week as an unexpected injury or accident can keep a key player out of a game on Sunday.

All in all, I personally would give props to someone going 15-0, but wouldn't take any advice from them.

Puckhandler · Sep 26, 2006

It's funny that you started this thread as I noticed a poster on another site that has started the season on a 15-0 run. FWIW he is on the Eagles next wek vs Green Bay.

HarryCaray · Sep 26, 2006

I would fade him.

viking611 · Sep 26, 2006

HarryCaray said:
I would fade him.

especially if his best pick going is an 11 point favorite..WTF??!!

sean1 · Sep 26, 2006

If he was someone I already follow based on years of picks, I would continue to follow him and would not alter my bet size at all.

Same thing if he went 0-15.

15-0 is only 7 games better than 8-7.

After maybe 300-500 picks I would reevaluate him and decide whether to drop or increase.

Sean

aceduecetrey · Sep 26, 2006

Fade City!

hence my minne +4.5

Kiss1 · Sep 26, 2006

If a poster started out the NFL season 15-0, how would you as a fellow poster handle?

I'd immediatly invest in knee pad stock.

Especially if the company was AA rated.

:missingte :missingte :missingte

blueedwards · Sep 26, 2006

Teddy kgb said:
If someone posted a 15-0 record everygamblersdream would post it at peep's place and they would have fun for hours calling the guy a square.

:lolBIG: