Wager Approach: -1.5 Runs & Alternative R/l

themadactuarian · Sep 26, 2006

Greetings,

Am wondering if anyone out there is also doing this:
Fictional Example: LA ANGELS at BALTIMORE

Angels -1.5 +155 (2 units)
Orioles -1.5 +165 (2 units)

2 Run victory margin will leak a 1 unit profit, from risking 4 units.

Sounds risky - but at the same time, over 70% of MLB games are
decided by a winning margin of more than 1 run. Some teams in weak
ballparks with mediocre starter on mound (facing equivalent mediocre
pitcher) fall in this category.

Texas on the road, Baltimore at Home, Washington on Road, Phillies at Home.

As you know, betting Bases can be brutal - unless you are able to isolate
a potential streak (6 wins or losses in a row) - then you ride that team.

Thanks,

The Mad Actuarian

DeezNuts · Sep 26, 2006

I tracked the exact thing for a few weeks early in the season and found that it was not going to work. For record keeping purposes only I put one unit on the favorite -1.5 and the dog -1.5. Some days there was a profit, but for the most part the losing days far outweighed the winning ones. I also looked at taking the favorite -1.5 and the dog on the ml so the only way to lose was when the favorite only won by one run and that wasn't working for the few weeks that I tracked it eaither. I supposed if you didn't play every game, but picked and chose you might have a better chance.

Wager Approach: -1.5 Runs & Alternative R/l

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themadactuarian

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