4-Star WASHINGTON +165 over Philadelphia -- Yesterday, the Phillies put up 2 runs in the top of the first but couldn't hold on and lost 4-3, despite out-hitting the Nats 13-8. This is exactly the type of performance that cripples the Phillies and energizes the Nationals. The Phillies are a league-worst 25-47 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead, dropping 30+ units and a terrible 1-8 as a FAVORITE after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base.
On the other hand, Washington is a terrific 37-17 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit, making $2155 for a $100 player and 21-7 at home after a one-run win banking $1365.
Hamels has pitched well recently and the Phillies have won his last two starts. However, Philadelphia is a money-burning 5-14 as a 140+ FAVORITE when they won the last two games their starter started, including 0-6 their last six. It appears as if the Phillies' bats rely on a "hot" pitcher when they are a significant favorite.
At home, oozing with confidence from their come-from-behind, one-run win yesterday, we know we are going to get an honest, inspired effort from Washington. Take the Nats again at a big price.
MTi's FORECAST: Washington 5 Philadelphia 4
On the other hand, Washington is a terrific 37-17 at home when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit, making $2155 for a $100 player and 21-7 at home after a one-run win banking $1365.
Hamels has pitched well recently and the Phillies have won his last two starts. However, Philadelphia is a money-burning 5-14 as a 140+ FAVORITE when they won the last two games their starter started, including 0-6 their last six. It appears as if the Phillies' bats rely on a "hot" pitcher when they are a significant favorite.
At home, oozing with confidence from their come-from-behind, one-run win yesterday, we know we are going to get an honest, inspired effort from Washington. Take the Nats again at a big price.
MTi's FORECAST: Washington 5 Philadelphia 4