I have astros at 300-1 to win pennant

noggindrill · Sep 28, 2006

$100 pays $30000
should i hedge?
how should i hedge?
really am a newbie to heding futures, any input appreciated :103631605

Bet-It-All · Sep 28, 2006

Keep it and hope they make the playoffs than hedge.

2PLAYSMAX · Sep 28, 2006

Man. I wish you all the luck I could possibly offer.

Dam i was pulling for the stros before this post. You make me watch with even more intensity.

gl brother

passingthewind · Sep 28, 2006

Holy Shit, what made you plunk it on the Stros just a pick or favorite team?

noggindrill · Sep 28, 2006

got lucky

bet $100 on marlins 300-1 , $100 red 300-1 and astros 300-1

just a feeling one of them had a chance to make playoffs.

anpyanks · Sep 28, 2006

no way would i hedge especially now with pedro out for the mets.... if they get in they will be tough to beat with those three pitchers... good luck, ill be pulling for u...

HuskerFan1 · Sep 28, 2006

id love to be in that position...yikes..i had the marlins months ago at sick odds but they couldnt sustain the momo...

its really tough to hedge at this point b/c they arent in AND you dont know if its gonna be LA/SD/Philly...you have mets/stl/la/sd/houston/philly trying to get in...

i guess you could bet on mets/sd/la and philly all to win the pennant and guarentee yourself "SOME" money but...like someone else said...they are so hot right now...and since its only a 100bucks your best bet might be to wait and see if they can sneek in where you can hedge against 1 team then against another team should they advance etc...instead of trying to bet 4 other teams....

WVU · Sep 28, 2006

when did you get them at 300-1?

Dssemulator · Sep 28, 2006

Man thats awesome!! Up until now I didn't really care who won it but now I will definately be pulling for your 'stros!
Good Luck! :103631605

noggindrill · Sep 28, 2006

cards are losing 9-1 6th inn

i guess houston will be 1/2 game back and they hold the tiebreaker correct?

kermit16 · Sep 28, 2006

noggindrill said:
i guess houston will be 1/2 game back and they hold the tiebreaker correct?

Tiebreaker ? I believe there would be a one game playoff to decide who goes

Horseshoe · Sep 29, 2006

If St.Louis blows and the Stros get in..thier MO is gonna be a huge breakaway train for NYM, SD, LA, or Philly to deal with..and would look for their clutch pitching and playoff experience to carry them to the pennant.

NYM clinched too early..and the other NL Playoff teams are in form..despite the rest edge for Mets..you can't just turn it on and off..they are going down.

I look for LAD or SD to beat NYM..and would make Houston the smallest of NL chalk if they get in.

Right now, they have everyone contributing, and are dialed in..Oswalt is on fire..I'd like my chances with him as #1 vs anyone..he can steal home away from any team..even the AL Champ.

Doug · Sep 29, 2006

no tiebreaker, a game to break it, like NYY and boston in 1978 ( ?). It's already been determined where it will be by a coinflip ( forgot where).

Good luck !

Anti-liberal · Sep 29, 2006

noggindrill said:
$100 pays $30000
should i hedge?
how should i hedge?
really am a newbie to heding futures, any input appreciated

I would hedge for a lock up of a dime or two if they make the playoffs, and hope they make it all the way. That way you'll have a nice profit, even if they don't get to the Series, but you'll keep a shot at 20 or 25 dimes if they do. If you get a 300 to 1 in the playoffs, you owe it to yourself to lock up something, IMO. But leave it so where you'll still kick ass if they make it to the series.

Doug · Sep 29, 2006

He said pennant, not WS.

Horseshoe · Sep 29, 2006

Definitely crunch the profit should they get in, but with the state of the NL picture, and the roll of the Stros, I wouldn't hedge back more than five dimes..as I really would make them small chalk over any other NLer given current form.

Doug · Sep 29, 2006

I think I'd bet against Houston a little bit on individual games, not series, if I owned the future.

noggindrill · Sep 29, 2006

thats what i was going to do Doug bet against astros the next few games ,could i parlay against the cards as well or does that not work?
or i was thinking about betting the pther teams to win the pennant maybe a couple hundred on each?

Doug · Sep 29, 2006

I'd have to really think about what you could do now, I was meaning bet against them a little once they win the division. You have to think they win remaining games, a SL loss FRI helps a lot. Too bad they don't play SL in the final series.

They can't set their rotation up, and use scrub pitchers, so I think they try extra hard to win, so you don't want to bet against them. I guess you could bet on SL, but if SL and Hous both lose, that's bad ! Plus I don't think you want to bet on SL the way they are playing.

Hous win and SL loss Fri puts you in good shape. Worst thing is Hous loss and SL win that really hurts, so maybe a small parlay on that protects you, but if both win or loss, you lose the parlay, and SL is closer to winning the division.

Pretty tough to hedge just yet, it can backfire on you.

Doug · Sep 29, 2006

Here's an easier way

<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR id=ignore0><TD colSpan=3>MLB Futures

</TD></TR><TR id=ignore_a0><TD colSpan=3>Odds To Win 2006 NL Central

</TD></TR><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b0><TD width="15%">Fri 9/29</TD><TD colSpan=2>Will St. Louis win the 2006 NL Central ?</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=MBB>297 Yes</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">-151</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"> </TD><TD class=MBB>298 No</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+141</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>