Big value in AL Central winner

christof

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• Sep 29, 2006

• #1

Lots of math, but its easy math.

Detroit lines should be centered around about -210 for the three games.
Minnesota lines should be centered around -120.

With that assumption, Detroit has a 68% to win each game, while Minnesota has a 55% chance each.

Using those percentages here are the chances to win the exact number of games (no math posted, but can explain if neccesary):

Detroit

0 3%
1 21%
2 44%
3 31%

Minnesota

0 9%
1 33%
2 41%
3 16%

Since Minnesota has to win one more game than Detroit, these win scenarios result in a Minnesota division winner:

Detroit 0
Minnesota 1,2,3
.03 * (.33 + .41 + .16) = 3%

Detroit 1
Minnesota 2,3
.21 * (.41 + .16) = 12%

Detroit 2
Minnesota 3
.44 * .16 = 7%

Adding these possibilities:
3 + 12 + 7 = 22%

Or about -350, so Tigers to win AL Central is very attractive at 78% probability when you only have to lay about -200.

 

HuskerFan1

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• Sep 29, 2006

• #2

your post makes a LOT of sense and i actually agree with it....

minny vs cws is

garcia vs bosner
garland vs garza
vazquez vs baker

det is throwing ledezma miner and bonderman (he will be around -250 on sunday)

then again if you believe in curses minny should be -1000 b/c i have the tigers LOL

at least im headed out tonight so i wont be stuck watching the computer all night...

 

MAGAking1

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!

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• Sep 29, 2006

• #3

I didnt do the algebra like you did

But -205 looked pretty good considering the situation


Go Tigers!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

christof

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• #4

down to -195 at pinnacle. only a few minutes left.

 

GreenDoberman

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• #5

Sharp, informative post. Winning or losing the bet is irrelevant and out of your hands, but the math is important.

 

HuskerFan1

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• Sep 30, 2006

• #6

this is getting totally crazy...its like pinny and wsex are WAITING for the tigers to blow it...i thought for sure the line would be det-300 to win the central after both losing last night (det shoulda locked it up but thats a different story for a different day)....

anyways...they slice 33% of what was left of the season 1of3 games away and the line is only DET
-225 at wsex they are -222

for the life of me i dont get that line...there are 4 possible outcomes left in the season (i tried explaining this to my gf last night when there was 6left)...

Minny W DET W
Minny L DET L
Minny W DET L
Minny L DET W

in all reality its Minny that must win 3of4 scenarios to clinch the division bc as we know and have stated 1000X tie goes to detriot on this one...

as horrific as last nights loss to KC was...they are still facing them the next 2 games with bonderman on sunday....minny has to face CWS best pitcher today Garland and tomorrow they are throwing their WORST starter Baker vs Vazquez

i just dont understand this line only going up 20cents when there are 4 outcomes left and minny needs to hit 3of4....i thought for sure det would be
-300+

 

HuskerFan1

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• #7

fwiw, i dont even see a line on the tigers game at pinny or wsex (havent checked anywhere else)

i HONESTLY believe if Minny loses today, they throw miner tonight...if minny wins today....i sincerely PRAY they throw verlander as it will become almost a must win situation (for the 1st time in months they will not control their own destiny)

thats gotta be why its OTB...i cant think of anything else...

anyone from det have any info on this?

 

5teamparlay

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• #8

Small incentive for BJAYS 2nd place in AL EAST


PLAYOFF POOL---- The Players' pool is created from 60% of the total gate receipts from the first four World Series Games; 60% of the total gate receipts from the first four games of each League Championship Series; and 60% of the total gate receipts from the first three games of each Division Series. The Pool is distributed as follows: World Series Winning Team: 36%; World Series Loser: 24%; League Championship Series Losers (two teams): 12% each; Division Series Losers (four teams): 3% each; Non-wild Card Second Place Teams (four teams): 1% each. The division of a team's Players' pool shall be made by a vote of the Players, in a meeting chaired by the Player Representative.

BUT for winning one game it's something.

 

crazyivan

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• Oct 1, 2006

• #9

This is a joke, Tigers blow it! I've got cash on the AL Central on Tigers....argh

How do they blow a 6-0 lead?

 

crazyivan

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• #10

What a choke job! I lose this play too ...

 

HuskerFan1

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• Oct 1, 2006

• #11

im thinking of a number between 1 and 33.....lolol

"19"...shit what a nice guess...howd you know it was 19....