Markie Mark's 2006/07 NHL Chase Thread

Search

New member
Joined
Feb 9, 2005
Messages
5,407
Tokens
I will be playing an AWAY SERIES CHASE for the entire 2006-07 NHL Season. This type of system requires a lot of discipline, as you will not get rich quick. You can, however, realize a profit of somewhere between 150 and 200 UNITS over the course of a season if you follow the rules - that's where the discipline comes in.

The whole idea behind this system is simple. Hockey is a very physical game and with an 84 game schedule there is a lot of travel required over short periods of time, often leaving teams battered, bruised and tired - especially when they are on extended road trips. With this in mind, teams embarking on a road trip that is a MINIMUM of 3 games long have a very low chance of winning all of the games on that road trip.

Each road trip is called a SERIES. The goal for each SERIES is to realize a PROFIT of 1 UNIT by betting AGAINST the traveling team. If the traveling team wins the 1st game of the road trip then the CHASE begins. You now must wager enough on the 2nd game of the SERIES to recover the lost wager on the 1st game while still trying to realize a PROFIT of 1 UNIT. If, by chance, the traveling team were to sweep their road trip, you must then take the total amount lost in that SERIES and spread it out evenly across the remaining SERIES. This will give you a NEW GOAL that will be MORE THAN 1 UNIT PROFIT per SERIES. Raising the target for PROFIT in the remaining SERIES will ensure that you are still going to PROFIT by 1 UNIT for each SERIES over the course of the entire season. A SERIES that is longer than 3 games may produce the opportunity to win more than 1 UNIT of profit over the entire road trip. These SUB-SERIES may be played when the travelling team loses a game but still have a minimum of 3 games remaining in their road trip.

I have identified 161 SERIES for the 2006-07 NHL Season. This means that if the rules are followed, a profit of 161 UNITS or more could be realized once April rolls around. It was a long haul last year but I produced a PROFIT OF OVER 130 UNITS as documented in this forum.

I suggest starting with a bankroll of 100 UNITS to play this system. It doesn't matter what your unit size is but you must identify how much you can afford and NOT CHANGE YOUR UNIT SIZE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON. If you can afford $200 then your unit size should be $2 and you must stick with this unit size or else you may end up losing in the end.

I also combine my knowledge of hockey to cap some of these games. If you play this system blindly you may be headed for disaster. All plays will appear in this thread along with some capping information and explanations when required. It all starts on October 5th but I will pick my spots at first since most Series losses tend to come early in the season. All betting lines will be taken from Pinnacle.

Good Luck and let's make some money!
MM
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,385
Tokens
MArkie like your idea. noticed 3 things from last year.
1. the first game of the trip did not produce positive winnings. So why not start with game 2 if road team won first game?this would reduce your dollar bets later on.
2. i looked at the stats and noticed the west had a better win % than the east. not sureif that is normal or a unusual year.
3.noticed ly you were behind early when the banging around has not yet taken its physical toll. so possibly waiting 3 weeks tostart might offer better starting plays.
was looking at this year schedule and noticed a few instances where a team playeda road game then had 3 days off before beginning another 3 games away so wich in your mind begins the trip?

I like your idea and use similar ones in baseball nad baskets. Just thought I would raise a few questions. I guess I am trying to keeop bet size down. regards for the season heart222
 

New member
Joined
Feb 9, 2005
Messages
5,407
Tokens
heart222,

Your first comment came up many times last year.

Games 1 and 2 provide the opportunity to end a Series early and/or provides the opportunity to get multiple wins from the same road trip. This way I don't have to continually sweat out the late games in every Series.

Not playing the first game of a Series would mean that I could potentially miss out on getting multiple wins from the same road trip.
There are MANY Series that won in Games 1 and 2 and then were ENDED. There are also MANY cases where if I had waited until Games 3 and 4 to play these Series, I would have had MANY more losing Series.

These games do not show up in the W/L stats for Games 3 and 4 because the later games for these Series were NEVER PLAYED since the Series was already a winner from Games 1 or 2.

Games 3 and 4 may look GREAT according to the stats posted last year by JOH but they are merely a CUMULATIVE number after CHASING losses from Games 1 and 2.

To answer your third point, as I said above, I will pick my spots carefully at the beginning of the season.

MM
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Messages
7,977
Tokens
Markie,

Wondering where you get 161. I went through myself and found 167, although 4 of those series were interrupted by the AS break. I imagine you threw those out, down to 163. There was also another series interrupted by the AS break, but it was a 4 gamer and 3 were before the AS break, so I would think that one remains.

Let me know.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,385
Tokens
Markie thanks for your response. Sportsbetor in both baskets and baseball i look for the long roadtrips and try and handicap a game or two usually let first game go and then depends who they are playing or who pitches. regards heart222
 

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2006
Messages
67
Tokens
I noticed that Pinnacle has new rules for Hockey wagers.. is this something we can expect to see in other books? Has anyone noticed this anywhere else?
This system needs to see these games completed, correct? A couple pushes in the wrong place would be a killer.

From pinnacleSports:
Please note:

Effective immediately, hockey games will be graded on the results of regulation time only, unless explicitly stated otherwise in the line offering.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Messages
1,199
Tokens
fhmesq and Markie, I came up with 162 series with 4 interupted by the allstar break so that would mean 158 series. I have it broken down by each team so how many series do you have for each team and we can check where we are different in our numbers.
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Messages
7,977
Tokens
Mine isn't broken down by team, it is on a spreadsheet by the starting date of the series, with each road game in the series listed. I went through and checked my dates with PacMan's listing which was by team and found a few errors in each of ours that were corrected. based on the this, I am fairly confident mine is correct. I am more than happy to send you the spreadsheet if you want it. email me at the first six letters of my username on yahoo.com if you want it.
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Messages
7,977
Tokens
Jambruins said:
fhmesq and Markie, I came up with 162 series with 4 interupted by the allstar break so that would mean 158 series. I have it broken down by each team so how many series do you have for each team and we can check where we are different in our numbers.

just sent it
 

Member
Joined
Feb 4, 2005
Messages
1,199
Tokens
167 series is what I came up with and 4 were interupted by the allstar break so that would mean 163 series just like you said fhm. Thanks
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Messages
7,977
Tokens
Jambruins said:
167 series is what I came up with and 4 were interupted by the allstar break so that would mean 163 series just like you said fhm. Thanks

cool.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 19, 2006
Messages
67
Tokens
Linear Schedules

Hi Guys, I found that the best way to look at the schedule is spread sheet style, with the teams on the left adn the dates across the top. I will try to upload two CSV files for you, you can pull these into excel or a db and play around with them however you like. I am not sur ewhere I grabbed the original schedules so please let me know if there are any problems.
The first file is short, and just has M,T,W etc for the date. and no away locations.. just an @ symbol for road games and an X for home games.
Teh Second file is Long and has full dates and full away locations.
Let me know if you need anything adjusted.
[Edit] The long file was a little too long.. I was able to load as an XLS file
Thanks, WhiteFalcon
 

Attachments

  • nhl_2007_quick.txt
    8.9 KB · Views: 198
  • nhl_2007_long.xls
    104 KB · Views: 255

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
Joined
Feb 25, 2006
Messages
7,977
Tokens
WhiteFalcon said:
Hi Guys, I found that the best way to look at the schedule is spread sheet style, with the teams on the left adn the dates across the top. I will try to upload two CSV files for you, you can pull these into excel or a db and play around with them however you like. I am not sur ewhere I grabbed the original schedules so please let me know if there are any problems.
The first file is short, and just has M,T,W etc for the date. and no away locations.. just an @ symbol for road games and an X for home games.
Teh Second file is Long and has full dates and full away locations.
Let me know if you need anything adjusted.
[Edit] The long file was a little too long.. I was able to load as an XLS file
Thanks, WhiteFalcon

That is pretty much what my spreadsheet is, email me.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 20, 2004
Messages
907
Tokens
any other suggested books besides pinnacle? also, are all books changing the rules as pinnacle did?
 

New member
Joined
Mar 22, 2006
Messages
2,793
Tokens
as far as i know, pinny is the only one (making this rule change)
The Greek is good, 5 dimes has 60 minute lines with much nicer prices, but the push would kill us... any of the sponsors here would also be worth trying..

As for the spreadsheets, i'm working on one now that includes various scenarios.. how teams fare after 3 days or more off during a pending series... how they do in back to back situations, 3 in 4 situations, etc... also it will keep track of system wins at certain plays within a series.. fully sortable by date, team etc... also for interest sake i'm including space for opening/closing MLs, -1.5 and totals...

my hope is that by years end we might have a better understanding of how teams react in certain situations in Markie's system..
i;ll post it here when finished if anyone's interested.... should be ready before puck drop on Wed. night
 

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
1,385
Tokens
i just read the greek rules. they are going to the 60 minute game so a tie at 60 minutes is a loss. they also have handicap betting where the +1/2 at 60 minutes is a winner and the- 1/2 is a loser. lot of differance. I am an u/o player and think this will help the unders. will get a better feel when the lines post tomorrow. it dosent get easier does it.
 

New member
Joined
Mar 22, 2006
Messages
2,793
Tokens
heart222... where did you read this??
this was taken today, directly from the Greek's site on wagering rules...

NHL Hockey Rules

* For wagering purposes, a hockey game (pro or college) becomes official after fifty-five (55) minutes of play.
* Games lasting under official time constitue "No Action" or "Push/Cancel" and all money is refunded.
* Games must take place on the site and date scheduled. (unless otherwise specified)
* Overtime scores are included on all game period wagers. Third Period wagering does NOT include overtime scores.
* Wagering on the game period will include overtime and penalty shootout.
* Las Vegas Rules apply for any rules not mentioned here.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,765
Messages
13,438,758
Members
99,334
Latest member
mu88forum
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com