Going for 2

TTinCO · Oct 1, 2006

So Cincy scored a TD & was down 14-12....and they kick it.

So now they still need a FG to take the lead---just as they would have if they had missed the 2 pt conversion.

Why wait until you NEED to get the 2? Maybe you wouldn't NEED it if you had gone for it earlier.

What's the difference between down by 1 & down by 2? You still need a damn FG.

(I'm actually glad they kicked it, because I'm on Cincy o26-but I'll never understand the logic behind this decision)

royboy_3831 · Oct 1, 2006

TTinCO said:
So Cincy scored a TD & was down 14-12....and they kick it.

So now they still need a FG to take the lead---just as they would have if they had missed the 2 pt conversion.

Why wait until you NEED to get the 2? Maybe you wouldn't NEED it if you had gone for it earlier.

What's the difference between down by 1 & down by 2? You still need a damn FG.

(I'm actually glad they kicked it, because I'm on Cincy o26-but I'll never understand the logic behind this decision)

i think in most cases you should wait till the 4th quarter to go for 2... their are some exceptions, but in most cases i think it's the right move... for example, say cinci goes for 2 and fails they are down 2 points, now if n.e. scores a td they are down by 2 scores instead of 1, jmo

kermit16 · Oct 1, 2006

TTinCO said:
So Cincy scored a TD & was down 14-12....and they kick it.

So now they still need a FG to take the lead---just as they would have if they had missed the 2 pt conversion.

Why wait until you NEED to get the 2? Maybe you wouldn't NEED it if you had gone for it earlier.

What's the difference between down by 1 & down by 2? You still need a damn FG.

(I'm actually glad they kicked it, because I'm on Cincy o26-but I'll never understand the logic behind this decision)

I agree with the call. It's too early in the game to know what points might be needed. Let's say that Patriots score 2 field goals and are up by 7..... If Bengals had gone for 2 points and missed here... they score a TD They lose unless they get the 2 point conversion. The extra point just very well might win the game for them

Omni · Oct 1, 2006

I don't agree at all, and I think it's the wrong move NOT to go for 2 here. If you miss, then you know exactly what you need to win the game and can make decisions to get it later. If you go for 2 at the end of the game and don;t make it, you lose with no chance to get those points back if you need to.

People say "You don't chase points and you don't go for it till you need to" but other than sounding nice it's not good advice.

For those of you who talk about missing and then the other teams scores a TD and you're down 2 scores I say this. OK, you go for it and don't make it....STOP right there. They didn;t make it, ok. But if they kick the extra point and the other teams score a TD then they are STILL in a spot where they need to make a 2 point conversion anyways to win! And if you go for it in early and don;t get it, then later on if the other team scores the TD you KNOW that you need 9 points and can make decisions to try and get those points back with some time still left to do that. You can't really if you go for 2 "only when you need it" as they say, which means late in the game, 30 seconds on the clock after the TD that puts you down 2. There is no benifit to putting it off in this spot, at least none that I can see.

Dr.Knowitall · Oct 1, 2006

I can't believe anybody would even think about going for 2 points. It's not the right move as Roy Boy explained.

What's the difference between being down by 1 or 2 points. Again read Roy Boys post and think about what you just said.

Omni · Oct 1, 2006

Dr. Know it all said:
What's the difference between being down by 1 or 2 points. Again read Roy Boys post and think about what you just said.

"for example, say cinci goes for 2 and fails they are down 2 points, now if n.e. scores a td they are down by 2 scores instead of 1, jmo"

Now read my response to this in my post. I addressed this scenario.

BillGray · Oct 1, 2006

If teams made 2-pt conversions more than 50% of the time, then it would be worth going for 2 all of the time -- except in certain a late game situations when missing it would really hurt.

But teams make 2-pt conversions less than 50% of the time, so it only makes sense to go for in it late game situations when there could be very little possible value to a one-pointer between then and the end of the game, and where a two-pointer dramatically improves the prospects of being tied or ahead AT THE END OF THE GAME.

It's amazing how hard this is for coaches and others to understand.

Omni · Oct 1, 2006

Just to be clear, I am addressing this specific situation where a 2 pointer would tie.

Bill, what is the value of the one pointer when you are in this (first) situation verses the two? Not that much. That is what you are missing. as I have already said, the EP still puts you in a spot where if they score a TD you have to go for 2 later anyways, except with less time on the clock later to still come back if you don;t get it. And the one point makes no difference if they don;t put up that extra TD, a field goal still put you ahead and obviously so does a TD. What little value it has is if you go up with another TD you are up 6 instead of 5 which at that point in the game in the 3rd quarter I don't see as much value at all in that spot as late in the game they'll still be going for the TD anyways to get the lead. Also if you miss and the other team put up 13 (a TD and 2 field goals) you are down 15 instead of 14, but again in the 3rd this the chances of this scenario going forward aren;t that much.

Going for 2 earlier here is the right call IMO.

BillGray · Oct 2, 2006

I think I understand what you're saying, Omni . . . and if teams were better at making 2s I would agree with you completely.

(And, as I said, if a team made its 2s at greater than 49% proficiency -- or, if they have a particular play that they know will work most of the time -- then going for 2 should be the rule rather than the exception.)

But what your line of thinking just doesn't seem to sufficiently respect is this: every time the average team runs the average try for two, it lowers its expected total point production over the course of the game. When the teams each still have three or more possessions left in the game -- and the last possessions of the game are the most successful offensive ones at getting 6s and 3s, beyond any doubt -- then why do you want to lower your point production?

Especially when, in your example (as I understand it), it is not guaranteed and indeed maybe not even likely that the minority scenario (that is, you make the early 2) will reduce the number of scoring possessions that you need to win or will increase the number of scoring possessions that the other guy needs to win.

To me, if -- as is true most of the time -- there are enough possessions left in the game for the risk of having lower total point production to come back to haunt you (which would occur if you are going to end up ahead by only 2, 3, 6, or 7 or 8 instead of up by 3, 4, 7, 8, or 9, or you are going to end up behind by 3, 4, 7, 8, or 9 instead of by 2, 3, 6, 7, or 8: in other words, a LOT of scenarios) -- then the 2 seems like a bad risk to take.

The argument that an early missed 2 isn't so bad because at some point "you are going to need to make a 2-pt conversion to win" doesn't do it for me. Again, you are more likely to miss it than to make it. That's why (or should be why) coaches will not go for 2 to win the game in the last 20 seconds. They'd rather take the tie and put faith in the 50% coin flip and their D.

There's actually all kinds of debate about among math geeks (which I'm not at all, BTW), and no point of view seems conclusively proven. Your line of thinking has its supporters, and I was much too quick and simplistic yesterday in dismissing it.

indysports · Oct 2, 2006

HEY TT--as a coach the rule of thumb is to always hold off going for 2 until the 4th quarter --especially in a close game--- like stated before a ne td would have put them up 9 instead of 8 which is a 1 score game... with cincy's offense the "politically" right decision was to kick...

BillGray · Oct 2, 2006

That's another 'real world' point worth mentioning --

football coaches shy away from risk unless the percentages are overwhelmingly in their favor.

as somebody (is it Easterbrook? I can't remember) points out over and over again:

if a coach gambles and the team loses, the coach gets blamed (and eventually fired);

if a coach plays it safe and the team loses, the players get blamed.

mws · Oct 2, 2006

It's mindboggling that anyone would disagree. You go for two if you're down by 2. It is ALWAYS the right move.

Dr.Knowitall · Oct 2, 2006

Bill Gray makes an excellent point. Why would you run a play that on average will get you a little less than 1 point everytime you run it? When all you have to do is kick the extra point and get you easy point? There's no advantage in going for 2 points unless there's very little time left and not much of a possibility for another chance to gamble. And going for 2 points is gambling.

royboy_3831 · Oct 2, 2006

mws said:
It's mindboggling that anyone would disagree. You go for two if you're down by 2. It is ALWAYS the right move.

ummm no... if you have a good offense, pretty dumb to be going for 2 early in the game, you don't wanna start chasing points, good coaches know this...

Rev_Al · Oct 2, 2006

royboy_3831 said:
ummm no... if you have a good offense, pretty dumb to be going for 2 early in the game, you don't wanna start chasing points, good coaches know this...

100% correct:toast:

mws · Oct 2, 2006

You've got be kidding.

mws · Oct 2, 2006

ummm no... if you have a good offense, pretty dumb to be going for 2 early in the game, you don't wanna start chasing points, good coaches know this...

Your strategy guarantees that you'll be chasing points. If you go for two, there's a 45% chance that the point-chasing stops.

Going for 2

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