Boxslayer's MLB Future Play with VALUE

Boxslayer · Oct 2, 2006

1* Detroit Tigers to win World Series +1356

Pitching wins in the playoffs. Pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching. Bullpens. Good pitching stops good hitting. Good bullepsn preserve games.

A team out of the AL will win the world series, so you might as well take this HUGE value with Detroit for the world series instead of the pennant. You can always hedge later.

Bonderman, Verlander, Rogers, Zumaya.

Jim Leyland. The former Marlins Manager, hooking up with Dave Dombrowski, the best general manager in baseball, former Marlin general manager, are at it again. These guys are WINNERS. They won it with the Marlins, they know what it takes to get it done. PITCHING.

Overvalued, overrated teams that CANT PITCH:

METS
YANKEES

Twins, Tigers is where it is at. But the Tigers just have tremendous value here.

YOUNG PITCHING WILL ALWAYS SHUT DOWN VETERAN LINEUPS.

Veteran lineups will hammer veteran pitching. You see it all of the time. But the Beckett's, the AJ Burnett's will beat the Yankees. The Verlanders and Bondermans and Zumayas.
Too much value to pass up.

thewiscokid · Oct 2, 2006

i agree with you here, if they can't get past the yanks, they can ride that wave of momentum into the series. they got bats, arms, and a GREAT staff in the dugout.

yanni_gogolak · Oct 2, 2006

the tigers second half pitching wasnt as good as the first half, thats why they slipped at the end, bonderman struggled to get wins second half
i dont think any pitching will shut down the yanks lineup for a whole series

anpyanks · Oct 2, 2006

tigers didnt even play .500 in the second half, couldnt even beat kc one game (although i know they threw off with miner on saturday nite), i have to disagree with u on this one box although i know u are very sharp in baseball..

Dead$$ · Oct 2, 2006

I can't wait to see Rogers pitch with the $$ on the line. He's a very good 1st half pitcher and Mr. Choke w/ the $$ on the line. Give me Yanks TT over when Rogers takes the ball.

spreadbeater · Oct 2, 2006

Tigers pitching has not been as good as it was to start the season. Nate Robertson finished the season bad, and has always pitched poorly against the Yankees, especially this season. He has always pitched poorly at Yankee Stadium. Looks like the Yankees should be up 1-0 after game 1. Hard to see the Tigers win 3 of 4 against the Yankees if that does indeed happen. Also, the Tigers have played bad down the stretch, blowing what should have been a division title. This team will lose in the first round.

Good luck Box, but just dont see this happening.

Boxslayer · Oct 2, 2006

The play has loads of value.

There is no denying that this team was cold down the stretch. There is no denying that this team did not play well against top competition. I'm not putting money on a +400 stab here. I understand it's a longshot, and it's easy to disagree with the play. Heck, I think its odds were listed as the biggest long shot on the board.

But you need pitching to go far, especially in the playoffs... And the Tigers are one of the few that have it and go deep. If these pitchers find it, this is the best value on the board by far. They have tons of arms. If they dont find it and they continue to struggle, no harm done. But if they do find it, there may not be a more talented overall staff in the playoffs - especially power arms.

They have a champion Manager, they have a champion GM, they have a loaded pitching staff (which is the X Factor), they have a champion catcher to handle this staff, call the game and control the running game, they have a good bullpen and shut down guy with Zumaya. This guy might throw 103 with adrenaline. For +1356, I'll give these arms a chance to heat up again.

spreadbeater · Oct 2, 2006

Best of luck on the play BOX!!!

But forget this sport, HEAT season starts in 30 days!!!!

arty:

Boxslayer · Oct 2, 2006

Yeah man...

did you see Shaq rip the NBA about the new ball?

skinnylarry · Oct 3, 2006

i love value plays , but detriot has no more then a 5 % chance to win it all. that aint value if you do the math. if you were getting + 2500 it would be the play. they, detriot that is, has a 15 % chance at best to just get past the yankees !!!!!!!

gynecologist · Oct 3, 2006

J. Damon cf .289
D. Jeter ss .341
B. Abreu rf .340
A. Rodriguez .284
R. Cano 2b .343
G. Sheffield .295
J. Giambi dh .250
H. Matsui lf .298
J. Posada c .275

NorthernStar · Oct 3, 2006

skinny larry said:
i love value plays , but detriot has no more then a 5 % chance to win it all. that aint value if you do the math. if you were getting + 2500 it would be the play. they, detriot that is, has a 15 % chance at best to just get past the yankees !!!!!!!

How cant they have a 15% chance to get by the Yankees when the series price is something around -330 on the yankees? I think your play is very logical. Yankees ony won two more games than detroit on the season and that is mainly because the Yankees played in the easiest division of the american league. uesday the slate is clean, it is not about how you played yesterday or the last week. Yankees have pitching issues, Johnson back? mariano elbow? Giambi having a hard time getting steroids from Clemens. I think it is a good value play. GL

Boxslayer · Oct 3, 2006

skinny larry said:
i love value plays , but detriot has no more then a 5 % chance to win it all. that aint value if you do the math. if you were getting + 2500 it would be the play. they, detriot that is, has a 15 % chance at best to just get past the yankees !!!!!!!

i can throw numbers around, too...

i think detroit has a 39.56% chance of winning the whole thing...so i think there is value

smartz · Oct 3, 2006

uhh the pitching aint all that great. Verlander has sunken down from stud status, Bonderman has been incredibly inconsistent lately, Robertson has been consistent but never great, with Rogers being the only solid starting pitcher on their staff right now.

The twins? Their bullpen is lights out but outside of Johan what starter is actually very good? Radke wont keep it up his arm is shot, Silva...yah right, Bakers pitching way over his head, and Bonser well hes been good. And the way Loaiza has been going lately i dont think Bonser is the favorite in that matchup.

If anything I think the A's have the strongest pitching bar none. If Haren can come back to form and he showed signs of it last week theyll be sporting 4 aces throughout the playoffs. Hopefully Macha realizes Street is sucking ass right now and allows Duschscherer to take over the Closing role again. Not to mention the A's bats have been live the past few weeks. Bradley and Swisher are hot right now. Finally the big hurt is getting some support. A's +160 for series

Boxslayer · Oct 3, 2006

gynecologist said:
J. Damon cf .289
D. Jeter ss .341
B. Abreu rf .340
A. Rodriguez .284
R. Cano 2b .343
G. Sheffield .295
J. Giambi dh .250
H. Matsui lf .298
J. Posada c .275

PITCHING wins in the big time, gyno...dont get caught up in lineup hype

The Yankees wont win anything if they dont pitch. They've pretty much had that same lineup for a few years now, and they were younger and better and didnt win anything because they couldnt pitch

Every World Series winner could PITCH

2005 White Sox could pitch and win 1 run games
2004 Red Sox Schilling and Pedro
2003 Marlins had Beckett Penny and co.

The Yankees won 3 in a row behind horses like Clemens

One of the greatest lineups of all time those Cleveland Indians teams of the mid 90's never won a World Series because there starting pitcher's couldnt pitch. ERA's in the 4's and 5's.

Most world series teams also have an experienced leader at catcher. Lots of playoff games are 1-run games, and I love having a guy like Pudge back there to control the running game.

Am I saying the Tigers are gonna win the whole thing and they are my pick? No.

Im saying this team has way too much value with this line. Way too much. They have all of the right ingredients. New season now. If they get back on track, they have the pitching talent and the man behind the plate to do it. If they dont, and the Yankees sweep them out...i lost 1 unit.

Boxslayer · Oct 3, 2006

smartz said:
uhh the pitching aint all that great. Verlander has sunken down from stud status, Bonderman has been incredibly inconsistent lately, Robertson has been consistent but never great, with Rogers being the only solid starting pitcher on their staff right now.

The twins? Their bullpen is lights out but outside of Johan what starter is actually very good? Radke wont keep it up his arm is shot, Silva...yah right, Bakers pitching way over his head, and Bonser well hes been good. And the way Loaiza has been going lately i dont think Bonser is the favorite in that matchup.

If anything I think the A's have the strongest pitching bar none. If Haren can come back to form and he showed signs of it last week theyll be sporting 4 aces throughout the playoffs. Hopefully Macha realizes Street is sucking ass right now and allows Duschscherer to take over the Closing role again. Not to mention the A's bats have been live the past few weeks. Bradley and Swisher are hot right now. Finally the big hurt is getting some support. A's +160 for series

This is a clean slate now. I dont care what any of their pitchers have done. These guys are talented as a staff. They have power arms, they have a bullpen, there lineup is good enough.

I dont trust the A's bats. Theres not one guy on that team hitting over .300. Scutaro is a major hole in that lineup and automatic out vs. good pitching.

NorthernStar · Oct 3, 2006

smartz said:
uhh the pitching aint all that great. Verlander has sunken down from stud status, Bonderman has been incredibly inconsistent lately, Robertson has been consistent but never great, with Rogers being the only solid starting pitcher on their staff right now.

The twins? Their bullpen is lights out but outside of Johan what starter is actually very good? Radke wont keep it up his arm is shot, Silva...yah right, Bakers pitching way over his head, and Bonser well hes been good. And the way Loaiza has been going lately i dont think Bonser is the favorite in that matchup.

If anything I think the A's have the strongest pitching bar none. If Haren can come back to form and he showed signs of it last week theyll be sporting 4 aces throughout the playoffs. Hopefully Macha realizes Street is sucking ass right now and allows Duschscherer to take over the Closing role again. Not to mention the A's bats have been live the past few weeks. Bradley and Swisher are hot right now. Finally the big hurt is getting some support. A's +160 for series

I have a hometown bias to the twins but here are logical reason they win the series with oakland. best home record in baseball ( oakland just 44-37 on the road), best record against right handers in baseball (oakland has three right handers), Santana gets two starts if it goes that far, 5-1 at home against oakland, best era in american league since allstar game ( oakland 5th ), pitching wins, they have the best bullpen in the american league, closer is rock solid. Oakland scored 12 more runs since the allstar game than Minnesota, not significant enough to overcome the other factors. Personally I wish we were opening agiainst the evil empire with santana fresh.

gynecologist · Oct 3, 2006

Boxslayer32 said:
PITCHING wins in the big time, gyno...dont get caught up in lineup hype

The Yankees wont win anything if they dont pitch. They've pretty much had that same lineup for a few years now, and they were younger and better and didnt win anything because they couldnt pitch

Every World Series winner could PITCH

2005 White Sox could pitch and win 1 run games
2004 Red Sox Schilling and Pedro
2003 Marlins had Beckett Penny and co.

The Yankees won 3 in a row behind horses like Clemens

One of the greatest lineups of all time those Cleveland Indians teams of the mid 90's never won a World Series because there starting pitcher's couldnt pitch. ERA's in the 4's and 5's.

Most world series teams also have an experienced leader at catcher. Lots of playoff games are 1-run games, and I love having a guy like Pudge back there to control the running game.

Am I saying the Tigers are gonna win the whole thing and they are my pick? No.

Im saying this team has way too much value with this line. Way too much. They have all of the right ingredients. New season now. If they get back on track, they have the pitching talent and the man behind the plate to do it. If they dont, and the Yankees sweep them out...i lost 1 unit.

After reading this I have come up with one thing..

You're ass could sell Ice to an Eskimo. You can sell..

smartz · Oct 3, 2006

Not caring what the pitchers have done over the season to make your pick isnt value its a fantasy. So your banking on them suddenly getting hot? The stars aligning and them throwing over their heads to win the Title. Highly unlikely. I can see what your saying about the potential but i cant imagine them just turning it around like that.
The A's bats havent posted gaudy numbers all year but yet they continue to win and their big bats are hitting stride laate in the season. Scutaro has done much much better than Crosby ever did this year and im content with that. Hes played solid defense, can lay the bunt down, and has had his timely hits.

NorthernStar · Oct 3, 2006

Box ~ you have good logic behind your selection. GL

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