ALERT: Scoring for the first game in series since 2002

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

16 first series first games in the last four years.

NOT ONE OF THEM WAS DECIDED BY ONE RUN!!!

Only one of the three years, 2003, did the total for the first day's three games go under 24.

You may wonder how it matters with different pitchers and teams, etc, but baseball teams are in very similar situations in this spot each year and I believe there is some fundamental psychology to these results that will hold up from year to year. Want a comparative situation to put it into perspective?

The Superbowl or AFC/NFC championship games are very important to teams. Is there a lot of scoring in the first quarter, usually? No. Most of the time the teams feel each other out and try not to make mistakes...kind ease their hyped players into the game and get into a ryythm (how do you spell ryythm?) before they start trying to bust it out.

Now, I'm not sure of the reasons but MLB seems to score more on the first game of the first series. I think teams are in similar positions regarding mind-set and player mentality regardless of team names and pitchers.

I'm taking the OVER 24 today in the Grand Salami.

FURTHER: I need help today. In the last 16 first games of the first series, (the last four years) NOT ONE has been decided by one run. How can we cash on this trend, assuming it holds up and we have 2 or 3 games today decided by more than one run?

HELP!!

tulsa

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

Tulsa said:
Only one of the three years, 2003, did the total for the first day's three games go under 24.

SHOULD read: Only one of the four years, 2003,....

Cueball · Oct 3, 2006

Tulsa,

I still like my UNder play in the OAK/Minn game because this game should be an anomaly to your interesting point. I think your point shows that in first games of a series, pitchers are many times off their normal days of rest because managers are manipulating the rotations. Either a pitcher is coming off short rest or too much rest.

Zito is right on his normal routine. So he will be fine. Santana is coming off SIX days rest. But I think he will be fine because he needed the rest.

What do you think about my theoretical explanation for your statistics?

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

Yes, Cueball, I believe that you have good points and your reasoning behind why higher average scoring occurs sounds better than about anything I could come up with.

So, on any one game, I could easily see believing the UNDER should hit.

I hope you get the under on that game and I hope someone else scores 16 runs!

BUT, Cueball, put that sharp noggin on this: Is there any way to cash on the fact that 2 or 3 of the three games today will be decided by more than one run?

I don't have any cash at any site (right now) that offers alternative RL's.

I would SO take all six teams today at -1.5 +money if I just could....

However, is there any other way?

If you like a team today and you are right in that analysis of just who will win the game, then I strongly suggest you examine the fact that given your side wins then that team should win by more than one run.

tulsa

magillagorilla · Oct 3, 2006

good luck tulsa,I hate betting on these totals during playoffs.some of the wierdest scores during playoffs.The main reason I am staying away from totals is I am wagering on twins and yanks and the juice is so high on yanks and twins, so i am staying away from all wagers except the two straight bets and a yanks/ twins parlay.

I love these games alot but I just dont like these low totals on these games,good luck with the salami if you make that wager
cheers
magilla

Cueball · Oct 3, 2006

I don't know if my noggin' is that sharp, but it is huge.

(literally not figuratively)

I can't think of a way to capitalize on this since I am not an expert on the dynamics of betting lines.

I guess I could cap the winners and just lay my money on the RL for a better price. That's simple. But the best idea I've got.

GL with your plays!!

I posted my under play on Oak/Minn and added OVER play on SD/STL...maybe that's where you'll get you runs.

thewiscokid · Oct 3, 2006

excellent numbers tulsa, thanks for sharing the info!!!

:103631605

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

Thanks Magilla and good luck to you as well. You said something in your post above that fits exactly what we are talking about here: If you like Minny and the Yanks then if I were you, I would take them both at -1.5 and save some juice. Nothing is guaranteed, but there is something to the fact that no games have been decided by one run out of 16 in the last four post seasons's FIRST game of first series. I didn't go back farther than that in time...

There is some reason, and maybe Cueball has the answer above.

Either way, good luck to you today, Magillagorilla

tulsa

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

Cueball,

I'll take all the runs being with SD/StL no problem! Thanks for the input and good luck.

tulsa

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

wisco, thanks! We'll see how excellent this info is about 11 p.m. EDT

Help me remember this next year if it works today!

Good luck.

tulsa

yanni_gogolak · Oct 3, 2006

tulsa, did u find a total runs today over 24? i can only find home and away runs over/under 24

Tulsa · Oct 3, 2006

yanni_gogolak said:
tulsa, did u find a total runs today over 24? i can only find home and away runs over/under 24

Yanni, that's it right there. Each game average 8 runs in that. That is the total runs for the three games today.

Good luck and nothing is guaranteed...if you go with it, just be normal about it.

tulsa

yanni_gogolak · Oct 3, 2006

Tulsa said:
Yanni, that's it right there. Each game average 8 runs in that. That is the total runs for the three games today.

Good luck and nothing is guaranteed...if you go with it, just be normal about it.

tulsa

oh, i see now, it looked confusing at first

oh and about being normal....

the fix is already in, mlb rigged it!:missingte

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

Maybe Bucsfan should have waited for the postseason as he loves to lay the -1 1/2 runs. That is the spot to capitalize on that trend. Is it true on his farewell speech he go zero replies?

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 3, 2006

Tulsa said:
Yanni, that's it right there. Each game average 8 runs in that. That is the total runs for the three games today.

Good luck and nothing is guaranteed...if you go with it, just be normal about it.

tulsa

It is also the total of the 3 games today totals added together, + 1/2 because they are all shaded over. You win that on the Yankee game all by itself. Might need a little help, but if Yanks knock Robertson around early, they can really light up middle relief.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

yanni_gogolak · Oct 3, 2006

well, not today, but will be interested to see what it is tomorrow

Tulsa · Oct 4, 2006

Do you know how many men were left on third in the St. Louis/San Diego game?

Oh my.

Sorry you lost that one with me.

Good luck and let's get 'em tomorrow.

tulsa

OMNIVOROUS FROG · Oct 4, 2006

How many baserunners were stranded in that Yankee game? The Pad game was a huge wrong move on the over. NL pitchers batting in a cavernous park. But you should have got 13 or 14 in Yanx. Better luck on next one.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy:

yanni_gogolak · Oct 4, 2006

Tulsa said:
Do you know how many men were left on third in the St. Louis/San Diego game?

Oh my.

Sorry you lost that one with me.

Good luck and let's get 'em tomorrow.

tulsa

yea, that game screwed me on over 7 too