LOOK at this intersting fact from my best bet thread!! Cool.

Tulsa · Oct 5, 2006

I messed up in the final scoring regarding how many entries I had graded. I had something like 2800 or so using Excel. I got to thinking that didn't seem right and I double checked. I fixed the Excel glitch....and it is a doozy. The scoring is otherwise correct...no problems there (that I know of)...it is just a SUM issue Excel has.

Anyway:

WINS: 2451
Losses: 2439

THAT IS FREAKING AMAZING. Is it not? Wow. Someone tell me as I am tired. What can we learn from this fact?

Think about it....THAT IS AMAZING.

tulsa

Kruser6 · Oct 5, 2006

Well it depends Tulsa

Can you average out the juice throughout all of those wagers?

Kruser6 · Oct 5, 2006

If the average juice was -$1.30 then:

2451 wins and 2439 losses would equal a loss of $71,970 on $100 bets per game.

However on the flip side if you faded these picks it would come out to a damn nice profit of $47,580 with $100 per bet assuming +1.20 on the dog.

Those are just assuming an average fav line of $1.30 however this is assuming that each play is $100 and that you play EVERY pick whether it is picked 1 or 15 times in a day. However the number could be better as you could save loss juice from games in which 5 are on one side and 2 on the other if you know what I mean.

Kruser6 · Oct 5, 2006

Tulsa, what has been the records in sports like NBA and NCAA. Would be very interesting to know! :howdy:

If you could send me the excel sheets I could work with them possibly.

Tulsa · Oct 5, 2006

Remind me to and I will send them to you next week. email me if you need to.

HOWEVER, I agree with you...it shows how the books make money right there front and center.

But to be 12 games different between winners and losers....wow. After that many and 12 games separate the W's from the L's....

YIKES.

You were being conservative...AVERAGE juice is -1.55 or +1.40....round about that... Most of the wagers were, of course, averaging -1.40 or worse....

Hee.

I'll say one thing: to be so close to exactly 50-50 is AMAZING!
tulsa

Kruser6 · Oct 5, 2006

Average juice -$1.40 with the dogs +$1.32, that would be an ABSOLUTE ridiculous profit. Also you could cut out the winners in there. I noticed the ones who CONSISTENTLY posted for awhile seems to be the ones that had a very good record with the exception of a few. The ones that were 4-10 and 6-12 stopped posting very quickly. Hell it seems like you could really make a lot of money fading those plays!

Even just an experiment year at $10 a pop you would have made over $5,000. Unbelievable.

Tulsa · Oct 5, 2006

I do use this stuff exactly like you are talking about. Best bet threads are money....I've been trying to tell people that all along!!

Pops69 makes some sort of rocket science and his results are better, but you don't have to do a lot of work to make money at best bets....I'm sorry...but it's true.

tulsa

AndySpainpick's · Oct 5, 2006

how do you approach the plays to make profit on it ?

Fade every play ? follow hot streaks ?

Big question, what was the total result in MONEY, i guess negative ?

CapNWatch · Oct 5, 2006

Yeah how do you use the best bet posts Tulsa.

CaptainCarl · Oct 5, 2006

Tulsa,
That is wild! How did it end up money wise overall for the contest?

Tulsa · Oct 5, 2006

Captain Carl, it ended negative $20,725 or -210 units

No, guys, I don't just fade blindly. Yes, you want to follow streaks. For example, Captain Carl was on a HOT streak and he can tell you...he was hot. Also, there were some that would go on cold streaks.....

There are also tricks if you keep track of the plays people are making....you notice some of the guys with really bad records can't win more than one game in a row....maybe once in the whole stretch they win two in a row and they have over 30 picks or so (to give some weight to their numbers...it is not like you can see anything after 8 plays)

So the guy wins one and you see he hasn't won two in a row but one time in 30 plays. You consider heavily fading his next play. At the same time, you have to still do some other information gathering to either discredit or back fading his play. I don't base my plays JUST on what cappers in the best bets are playing, but they are a big factor.

Good luck..

tulsa

Snets · Oct 5, 2006

Tulsa it tells me to stick with doggies when betting MLB

snets

Tulsa · Oct 5, 2006

Yes it does, no question. OR at worst very cheap favorites along with the Dogs.

However, we also know that randomly picking dogs or taking all the dogs sucks too.....

tulsa

fivedoorsdown · Oct 5, 2006

lol. how much you win off me?? win 2-3 in a row and then lose 2-3 in a row. also you can go by the day . certain days screw alot of people .
like i believe mondays did alot of people in.

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