Big Play Tomorrow 5* Play

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So far I am 3-0 in bases with 2 plays already going tomorrow on Cards under and Dodgers. But this will be my strongest play of the 3 on the day. Though bases is not my best area of expertise, at least when it comes to capping, I feel this strongly now after doing my research on this play:

5* Cardinals +135
I am sure many of you are shocked, lol, but really feel this is a great play. On the surface this game favors Padres with Wells vs Weaver. The fact that Cards have struggled vs lh batters and Wells in the past does not look favorable. Even Weaver's playoff record of 0-2 with over a 9 era looks worse. But first let me share with you Weaver's Road performance as a Cardinal.
@LA (W) 6-1 Cards 1 run
@Cincinnati (W) 13-1 Cards 1 run
@ Cubs (ND) 5-4 Cubs 5 2/3 innings 4 runs all earned
@ Pitt (L) 3-2 Pirates 3 runs
@ Arizona (W) 6-2 Cards 2 runs
@ Milwaukee (W) 12-2 Cards 2 runs
@ Mets (ND) 8-7 Mets 5 runs 4 earned

Overall on road 4-1 in 7 road starts with total runs given up by Weaver of 17 including unearned runs!

NOte: Jeff Weaver's era as a Cardinal in day games is 1.23!

Wells has the gout and really has had trouble even staying healthy this year. IMO it would have been smarter to start Young here with the home crowd and used Wells experience on the road. But I guess Bochy liked Young's 6-0 road record this year.

Bochy has been pushing all the wrong buttons. Taking into account his lousy set up of his pitching as I mentioned above, the SD bench is really weak despite some of the names and the way he used it in Game 1 is extremely questionable considering he put Mark Bellhorn in the game with the bases loaded with Pads a chance to come back. Bellhorn is a switch hitter who is a better lh but despite that Bellhorn had had only 1 official at bat in the last 3 weeks. With as an important at bat as this obviously was, why would you bring a guy up who has basically seen no action in 3 weeks!

Larussa has already announced that his lineup for tomorrow will be as follows:
Eckstein
Wilson
Pujols
Rolen
Encarnacion
Edmonds
Belliard
Molina
Weaver
So only Edmonds bats lh out of the entire group which will be a plus vs Wells. Wilson is the one who has been hot and has made a difference as witnessed in our last game vs quality lh in Capuano when Cards scored 7 runs which was the most off a lh starter all year!

Bulletin Board Material:
There are 3 things that I believe will serve as bulletin board material for Cards tomorrow with 2 of them coming after the finish of Game 1 and the other from Wells in August.

1. Dave Roberts Guarantees Victory in Game 2....Roberts was interviewed in locker room by SD Beat writer after Game 1 and guaranteed a victory in Game 2 for the Padres.
2. On the Sports Talk Radio Shows, they have been babbling the last 24 hours about the only reason we won Game 1 was Carpenter was going on an extra 2 days rest and slighting the rest of the Cardinals performance.
3.This is the one I find to be the most interesting. Cardinals during the waiver deadline after August 1st, had a deal in place to pick up, you guessed it, DAVID WELLS! Wells refused the trade which was no big deal but his comments about it were and I quote "I would retire before I played one inning in a Cardinal uniform." Throwing in Wells comments in Aug 04,when the Cards were on way to 105 victories, saying they are very beatable (He was with Padres at time) and his bean ball of JD Drew which in all liklihood ended Drew's career as a Cardinal as he was never the same, means there is a ton of animosity in Cards clubhouse with not only veterans but Larussa and Jocketty.

IMO, Cards make Wells pay tomorrow and jump on him early and often. I don't see Wells making it through 5 innings with his endurance issues,my predicted lack of success, and his issues with the gout.

Shadow Issue:
Cards bullpen is the big question mark as Weaver won't go past 7 innings as his history has shown as a Card but believe Cards will have comfortable lead at time which is huge. Around the 7th inning is when the shadows are scheduled to hit around the pitchers mound and the plate which if any of you watched on Tuesday, there were few baserunners and weakly hit balls on both teams due to the shadows between and on the pitchers mound and the plate. Throw in fact Looper and Wainwright are well rested, this is a big plus. Both throw hard and have nasty offspeed pitches (especially Wainwright) imo means lights out for Padres.

History:
This is third time Cards and Pads have met in divisional series. Cards have won first 2 series. Cards are 7-0 now vs Pads. Tony Larussa both in Oakland and St. Louis is 19-5 in divisional round games which is just below an 80% winning percentage.

Overall:
After winning Game 1,the above factors mentioned above, the way Cards handled Pads in Game 1, and the confidence and momentum the Cards are now showing,I am making the Cards +135 a 5* Play! I am also calling for this series to never make it back to SD and will likely end in a sweep on Saturday. Also, from my above mentioned and unmentioned homework, I am going to jump off of the under and make it a no play for tomorrow.

My only plays are :
Cards +135
Dodgers +146

Best of Luck!
 
Joined
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Wow that is a nice writeup there. I must say I'm impressed.. Interesting that Wells and the Cards have some bad blood between them. I follow the Padres and one thing I know is they suck @ Petco for some reason..

Found on MLB.com-

Going back to 1996, the Padres have lost seven Division Series games in a row to the Cardinals, only leading twice in those games.

The Padres psychology is messed up..

Might of found a gem here my brother... GL
 

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I did not include Game 1 Win in Tony's Divisional record which makes him 20-5 with 6 series win vs 1 series loss (Arizona in 01).

Also, I wanted to mention here why I am off the under and not playing the total. In Jeff Weaver's 4 road victories, Cards have scored 13,12,6, and 6 for run support in wins of over 9 runs per game. In all road games Weaver has started, Cards have scored 13,12,6,6,2,4,and 7 for an avg run support of over 7 runs per game. Since the total is 8.5, Cards based on Weaver's 7 road start avg would come close to covering this total on their own. Throw in Weavers over 9 era in playoff starts, I am laying off the total. I predict though that Weaver throws a very good ball game today and goes somewhere around 6+ innings and gives up 3 or less runs.

Gyne,
thanks, I do think this is a gem and throw in the fact getting plus money is a gift imo. BOL
 

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Two other tid bits to share. Weaver's record of 4-1 is misleading as well as it actually could very well be 7-0! The game he pitched vs Mets in NY was the Pujols/Beltran game where Albert drove in all 7 of the Cards runs and Beltran hit 2 run HR off Izzy in the bottom of the 9th. Cubs game he left with the lead in 6th with tying run on base and bullpen blew it. The game in Pittsburgh,not for sure on this but will double check, he had lead or was tied in 8th and lost it (which was his only Cards road loss). Anyway I think everyone should see my point of discarding Weaver and not taking him serious tomorrow.

The other point is on Tony Larussa. In St. Louis, though he has passed Whitey Herzog and like 25 wins short of all time winning manager surpassing Red Schoendients, Cards fans have never given him the love they gave Whitey. We have believed that he has lost us some opportunities to win a WS since he has gotten here by some questionable managerial decisions in past NLCS and WS. We were the favorites in nearly every one of those series and many fans think he blew it.
Atlanta up 3-1 and lost
SF Had homefield and blew it
Houston ly Had Homefield and blew it
NY Mets Had homefield and blew it
Red Sox Best record in bb and blew it.

This seems to be a different situation for Larussa and Cards and might be exactly what Larussa needs to be recognized fully in St. Louis fans minds. If he can take this team to the WS or even win it, it would remove some of the stench in many people's minds. The fact that there is no pressure for Cards to win is a blessing as players get real uptight and too intense in the past but very much as the underdog seemed very relaxed and simply going out and playing. With this said, a futures bet on winning NL and WS may be worth a try.
 

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More Overwhelming Stats:
Cardinals under Larussa in playoffs have won 8 Game 1 of playoff series with Padres 06 Game 1 included:
San Diego
Atlanta
Arizona
Los Angeles
Houston
San Diego
Houston
San Diego (Tuesday' victory)
Six of those victories came in NLDS round. In the 5 series prior, Cards are 5-0 in Game 2 and 5-0 in Game 3 meaning in NLDS round, if they won Game 1, in all 5 instances they went on to sweep series. Overall they are 6-1 in Game 2's and overall 6-1 winning the playoff series under Larussa when they won Game 1 with only loss of Game 2 and series being NLCS ly vs Houston! With this in mind is why I say this series is over!
 

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Digging even deeper, since 1968 when Cardinals have won Game 1 of any series they are 10-1 in Game 2 of that series and have won 9 of 11 of those series.

Series: Game 2 Series
05 Padres Won Won(Sweep3-0)
05 Astros Lost Lost (4-2)
04 Astros Won Won (4-3)
04 Dodgers Won Won (3-1)
02 Diamondbacks Won Won (Sweep 3-0)
01 Braves Won Won (Sweep 3-0)
96 Padres Won Won (Sweep 3-0)
87 Giants Won Won (4-3)
85 Royals Won Lost (4-3)
82 Braves Won Won (Sweep 3-0)
68 Red Sox Won Won (4-3)

Overall 10-1 9-2

In all series won since 1968 including losing Game 1, Cards are 11-2 in Game 2 of those series (Milwaukee in 82 (won), Dodgers 85 (lost)).
 

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Nice writeup for a non-baseball guy. We all know that Jeff is not his younger brother, otherwise your pick would be a lock. I dont think Weaver's road record is that great considering his opponents, he had the one good outing vs. LA. But i do like the 1.23 ERa for day games...GL
 

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Pats01,
Dodgers outing was impressive but the game in Cincinnati was a game similar to the one Weaver pitched vs Milwaukee on the Thursday lw and won. There was a lot of pressure in that Cinci game as they were very hot on our tails at that time. We had not won one game in cinci up to that point and it was the start of a 4 game series. Cinci last time we had played them ,had swept us in StL. Jeff not his brother but besides two horrible outings when he first came to STL (both at home vs Atl 15-3 and Phil 16-8) has been decent at a minimum but imo has been very good. BOL.
 

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Noticed very little change in the line. Very interesting. I wonder if it is because many have not made up their minds on game, equal money going both ways, or something else. Anyone have any clues?
 

PSU Fan...Go Lions
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Hell, I don't even bet baseball and I'll give this one a shot.

Great write up Kojak.
 

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Username,
I Think We Will Cash As Easily On Fsu As Cards! Thanks For Kind Words.
 
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Superb handicapping Kojax!! Thanks for the $ man, hopefully one day I can give you a winner.. Awesome capping my brother.
 

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