Found something I LOVE today...

I started betting the overs in every Weaver start in mid April. I hit in the 80% to 90% range. Even when he stood tall the cards hit. As the season went the line was as high as ov12 at times. Also, Jeff (unlike his little bro) is a pressure pitcher. As in, if he feels any he pitches like shit. You can buy the ov to 7.5 at pinny. If Monday's big win gets the cards hitting this is a gift. <o></o>
<table class="MsoNormalTable" style="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr style="background-attachment: scroll;"> <td colspan="17" style="padding: 2.25pt; background: rgb(187, 0, 58) none repeat scroll 0%; -moz-background-clip: initial; -moz-background-origin: initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: initial;"> 10 Start Log<o></o>
</td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> DATE<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> OPP<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> RESULT<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 9/29<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> Mil<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> W 10-5<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 9/24<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> @Hou<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> L 3-7<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 9/19<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> @Mil<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> W 12-2<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 9/12<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> Hou<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> W 6-5<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 9/7<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> @Ari<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> W 6-2<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 9/2<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> Pit<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> L 0-1<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 8/27<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> ChC<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> W 10-6<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 8/22<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> @NYM<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> L 7-8<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 8/17<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> Cin<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> W 2-1<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> 8/12<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> @Pit<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> L 2-3<o></o>
</td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> <td style="padding: 2.25pt;"> </td> </tr> <tr style=""> <td colspan="17" style="padding: 2.25pt;"> Complete Game Log<o></o>
</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>
As you can see he only covered the under three rimes in his last 10, but not once since the 2nd day of sept.

I don't promote winning I promote opportunities. And I like this one.

I don't know if you read my 5* thread but Weaver has only given up 17 runs in 7 road starts for Cards but Cards have given an avg of over 7 runs of support when he pitches and it goes to over 9 runs a game when he wins. I originally liked the under but got off of it for this exact fact that Cards based on these starts may cover number on their own. BOL

In the past Weaver may not have been a pressure pitcher but Weaver pitched imo the two biggest games of the season for STL and won both. The Thursday game the lw vs Brewers to stop 7 game losing streak and keep the Cards from dropping out of first and also the game in Cinci. Reds had opportunity to go into first and Cards go out and beat Cinci 13-1 for our first win Cinci of the season. Reds had swept us in STL few weeks earlier. He also had the only win during the last road trip in Milwaukee. If you take out two horrid starts vs ATL and Philly at home when he first came to STL he had been very good. In fact bullpen has cost him 2-4 more wins and easily could be 7-0 with Cards on the road (game in pitt when he pitched well, vs Cubs when bullpen blew lead, and vs Mets in the PUjols/Betran game where Izzy gave up walkoff to Beltran).

Kojak said:

I don't know if you read my 5* thread but Weaver has only given up 17 runs in 7 road starts for Cards but Cards have given an avg of over 7 runs of support when he pitches and it goes to over 9 runs a game when he wins. I originally liked the under but got off of it for this exact fact that Cards based on these starts may cover number on their own. BOL

Click to expand...

Thanks for the input Kojack. I think your observation is the reason for the lines being so low. But Weaver freaks on a national stage. His best year came when LA had very low expectations. This year with the angels he was disaster.

Coming off the a 7 game losing streak is pressure, but I don't see it on his shoulders. No one asked him to dominate. So if he lost it's the team and not him. This stage is too big for him. Also, I don't think Wells can go more 85 pitches before he's worn out.

<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(27, 55, 102) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: initial; -moz-background-origin: initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: initial;"><td colspan="17">10 Start Log</td></tr><tr class="colhead" align="right"><td align="left">DATE</td><td align="left">OPP</td><td align="left">RESULT</td><td>IP</td><td>H</td><td>R</td><td>ER</td><td>HR</td><td>BB</td><td>SO</td><td>GB</td><td>FB</td><td>TBF</td><td>#Pit</td><td>Dec.</td><td>Rel.</td><td>ERA</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">9/30</td><td align="left">@Ari</td><td align="left">W 3-1</td><td>6.0</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>12</td><td>4</td><td>22</td><td>76</td><td>W(1-2)</td><td>--</td><td>3.49</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">9/20</td><td align="left">Ari</td><td align="left">L 2-8</td><td>6.1</td><td>11</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>12</td><td>4</td><td>30</td><td>97</td><td>L(0-2)</td><td>--</td><td>4.43</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">9/15</td><td align="left">@LA</td><td align="left">L 1-3</td><td>5.0</td><td>6</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>12</td><td>2</td><td>20</td><td>63</td><td>L(0-1)</td><td>--</td><td>3.94</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">9/9</td><td align="left">@SF</td><td align="left">L 4-5</td><td>5.0</td><td>7</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>2</td><td>5</td><td>10</td><td>22</td><td>74</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>4.09</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">9/3</td><td align="left">Cin</td><td align="left">W 2-1</td><td>6.0</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>8</td><td>8</td><td>24</td><td>81</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>1.50</td></tr><tr class="evenrow"><td colspan="17" align="center">Previously with BOS, Acquired by SDG</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">8/26</td><td align="left">@Sea</td><td align="left">L 3-4</td><td>7.0</td><td>8</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>17</td><td>4</td><td>29</td><td>97</td><td>--</td><td>--</td><td>4.98</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">8/21</td><td align="left">NYY</td><td align="left">L 1-2</td><td>7.1</td><td>6</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>12</td><td>6</td><td>28</td><td>104</td><td>L(2-3)</td><td>--</td><td>5.40</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">8/16</td><td align="left">Det</td><td align="left">W 6-4</td><td>6.2</td><td>10</td><td>4</td><td>4</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>10</td><td>12</td><td>30</td><td>90</td><td>W(2-2)</td><td>--</td><td>6.06</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left">8/11</td><td align="left">Bal</td><td align="left">W 9-2</td><td>7.0</td><td>9</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>4</td><td>5</td><td>12</td><td>29</td><td>98</td><td>W(1-2)</td><td>--</td><td>6.23</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left">8/5</td><td align="left">@TB</td><td align="left">L 5-8</td><td>6.0</td><td>8</td><td>5</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>13</td><td>6</td><td>27</td><td>95</td><td>L(0-2)</td><td>--</td><td>8.05</td></tr><tr class="colhead"><td colspan="17">Complete Game Log</td></tr></tbody> </table> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(27, 55, 102) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: initial; -moz-background-origin: initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: initial;"><td colspan="17">Next Game: Thu, Oct 5 vs. St. Louis Cardinals </td></tr><tr class="colhead" align="right"><td align="left">SPLITS</td><td>ERA</td><td>W</td><td>L</td><td>Sv</td><td>SvO</td><td>G</td><td>GS</td><td>CG</td><td>IP</td><td>H</td><td>R</td><td>ER</td><td>HR</td><td>BB</td><td>SO</td><td>BAA</td></tr><tr class="oddrow"><td>Home (2006)</td><td align="right">5.44</td><td align="right">2</td><td align="right">3</td><td align="right">0</td><td align="right">0</td><td align="right">8</td><td align="right">8</td><td align="right">0</td><td align="right">46.1</td><td align="right">64</td><td align="right">28</td><td align="right">28</td><td align="right">8</td><td align="right">8</td><td align="right">22</td><td align="right">.332</td></tr> </tbody> </table> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr class="stathead" style="background: rgb(27, 55, 102) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: initial; -moz-background-origin: initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: initial;"><td>Quick Splits</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"><td> VS. LEFT: .303 / .818 VS. RIGHT: .317 / .817 HOME: .332 / .880 AWAY: .284 / .714(Stats listed are batting average and OPS against)
</td></tr><tr class="colhead"><td>Complete Splits</td></tr></tbody> </table> <table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"> <tbody><tr style="background: rgb(27, 55, 102) none repeat scroll 0% 50%; -moz-background-clip: initial; -moz-background-origin: initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: initial;"><td class="stathead">ESPN.com Content</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" valign="top"><td>
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</td></tr></tbody> </table> 5-4 is a winner.
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Dave Duncan has done a masterful job of getting Weaver to pitch the last couple of months. Before coming to STL, he had a big problem with walks due to nibbling and then would fall behind batter with runners on base and have to lay one in to avoid walk. You know the results. If you get a chance, take a look at my 5* thread. I have brought up all the way through it why the Cards win today and the series. I thought it was some pretty overwhelming support. BOL and think you will cash this pick as like I mentioned I jumped off the under after digging late last night.

Betterthanstocks,
You know what might be a better bet than over for the game may be the over in the first five innings. Both teams I believe will have to score as many runs as possible early before shadows hit around home plate and the bump. It is scheduled to hit there around the 7th inning so if it is a slow moving game, may be earlier. Once they hit, neither team hit a hard ball and hardly any base runners. Team that is winning before shadows hit wins this game. What do you think?

wells is top notch in these kind of games . best of luck all

fivedoorsdown said:

wells is top notch in these kind of games . best of luck all

Click to expand...

No question. That's why the pitch count is important.

Kojack,

The first 5 is a solid idea. The balls carries an extra 20+ durring the day in Petco. However, I do fear Wells being great for his first 50 pitches.

Cards also dont seem too hit soft tossers, I remember maddux earlier this season completely shutting them down with junk and slow stuff

Im with you BTS.....there is no way I can take an under when Weaver is on the hill.

All the Best.