Fezzik: Halftime betting tips

CharlieMaxwell · Oct 5, 2006

Many sports books now post halftime lines on virtually every football game. Sharp bettors aggressively attack these lines, often finding outstanding value. It certainly makes sense that halftime lines are beatable. After all, oddsmakers must post numbers literally seconds after the second quarter ends.

Read the rest of Steve Fezzik's latest column by going to the RX home page at www.therx.com

Charlie

:modemman:

CHOPTALK · Oct 5, 2006

Maybe the best article I have ever read at this forum about gambling. :103631605

bellyputter · Oct 5, 2006

Chop, that article was as generic as they come. Anyone who has been around the block a few times, would get nothing from that read. Good Luck

CharlieMaxwell · Oct 5, 2006

Belly,

The object of the RX writers is to inform BOTH the bettor who is just beginning AND the more experienced bettor. Of course, it is much more difficult to inform an experienced bettor since, as you put it, he has been "around the block" quite a bit more.

I thought this article was very informative for both beginning bettors and those who have been betting just 'straight' bets.

Charlie

crashin2me · Oct 5, 2006

can someone copy and paste my work has banned the front page and can only view the forums

CharlieMaxwell · Oct 5, 2006

Crash,

Unfortunately, our advertisers on the home page WANT people to go to our home page and read the articles. If we pasted all of the home page articles on the posting forum, it would defeat that purpose.

Charlie

WharfRat+ · Oct 5, 2006

It might surprise many bettors to know how halftime lines are set. The myth is that oddsmakers are watching the games, actively handicapping the action. The truth is that they typically just rely on a chart to set the halftime line.

I did not know this.

bellyputter · Oct 5, 2006

Charlie, should have kept my thoughts to myself. Too much free time this afternoon. Love this site and didn't mean to cause a disturbance. Good Luck

Fezzik · Oct 5, 2006

Trade Secrets.

Putter, guys get upset at me for posting stuff like this that "every" great pro knows.

They would lose their minds if I put my good stuff up here!

Hitman26 · Oct 5, 2006

Fezz:

Do you like Pitt Sunday night?

bellyputter · Oct 5, 2006

Mr. Fezzik, I understand and meant no disrespect. Sports betting for a living is something that is almost impossible to get right! Good Luck

quantumleap · Oct 5, 2006

Fezzik said:
Putter, guys get upset at me for posting stuff like this that "every" great pro knows.

They would lose their minds if I put my good stuff up here!

Fez:

How's the fezdaq doing?

Dr.Knowitall · Oct 5, 2006

Fezzik said:
Putter, guys get upset at me for posting stuff like this that "every" great pro knows.

They would lose their minds if I put my good stuff up here!

Please.

Hal01 · Oct 22, 2006

Charlie,

I've searched the archives and can not locate this article. Can you help?

Thanks, Hal

CharlieMaxwell · Oct 22, 2006

Hal,

Since the article is no longer on the home page, I am able to cut and paste it. Enjoy

Halftime wagers are now widely available on almost every lined game. This has enabled bettors to have shots at huge ‘middle’ opportunities.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com

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It sure sounds logical. Make a wager on a game and watch your team dominate in the first half. Then, bet some money back the other way at halftime, locking in a huge ‘middle’ opportunity.<o

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It sounds logical, but it won’t put money in your wallet. In fact, this sort of wagering will likely have a significant negative impact on your bankroll.<o

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How can such a good wager be so bad? The answer is pretty clear when you look at the math behind the wager.<o

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If the original wager looks good at halftime, there is no doubt you have a great situation with a bet that will win well over 50 percent of the time. However, there is no reason to believe that your second-half hedge wager will win over half the time. In fact, you likely will cash that second half wager UNDER 50 percent of the time if your original handicapping on the game was true. <o

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Placing a hedge bet at halftime is in fact similar to blackjack players taking ‘even money’ when they have a natural 21 against the dealer’s Ace. Common sense indicates this is a logical play by ‘locking in’ a great situation. However, strong players know that taking even money is typically a sucker bet, substantially reducing their profit in the long run.<o

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The same will happen to hedging sports bettors. They will win in the long run on those games where their teams are winning at halftime, regardless of what they do at halftime. However, those who play back these games at the half will make substantially less money.<o

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As is usually the case, there are exceptions to every rule. There will always be some situations where you will want to place a hedge bet based on your first half observations. Similarly, card counting 21 players will take ‘even money’ on blackjack when there is a surplus of 10-value cards remaining in the deck.<o

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However, these are exceptions to general basic strategy rules. In sports, these rules call for never making needless hedge bets. Rather, look to use the M.O.T.S. rule of handicapping at halftime. That is “root for more of the same.” Just look to keep your original position on a game rather than diluting it with a suspect halftime bet.<o

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<o>Charlie</o>
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Journeyman · Oct 22, 2006

The lines have to be set well in advance...how else would the oiddsmaker make all these decisions so quickly....HT lines are much the easiest to beat, qtr lines even better,,,think about it, the HT line has to coincide with the game line, MOST of the time for starters, you have watched HALF the game, the bettor has a huge advantage compared to a brand new game.

For those that are serious about beating the NFL and or have not shown much success, I would suggest waiting til halftime.

Dubpoet · Oct 22, 2006

Folks there is no reasoning. Its a gut play vs the expected and then posted lines.

Fezzik: Halftime betting tips

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Give BB 2.5k he makes it 20k within 3 months 99out

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