Bookie asks...does FADING WORK ??

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

Interesting concept and I'd like some opinions ...

let's say you have a small book About 25 players . NOW , Let's say U pick 5 players who simply wager on Straight plays , Chase and are Documented losers .

Ex: player A bets 50 ,100, possibly 200 when he's down .AT THE END OF EVERY Football Season HE IS Known to Lose 3 dimes a year !

So The Question Becomes, WHY NOT SIMPLY FADE AGainst This Guy and DOUBLE Your MONEY ??? of course it would be MINUS The Vig , but my gosh it's still worthwhile , wouldn't You agree ? I don't know why more locals don't take advantage of the opportunity at hand and Simply DO The Numbers and virtually Double the profits without all the BS ?? In my opinion , this concept is pretty solid despitethe vig .......welcome all opinions !!!

Iceman · Oct 7, 2006

here is the slight problem with that: lets say a bettor bets 200 games and ends up winning 50% (which is most likely 100-100) so he would end up losing 10 units or $5,500 betting $500 a game. Even if you fade him he still ends up winning/losing 50% and is ALWAYS down 10 units/bets. He would have to lose 53% of bets or higher which is just as hard as winning 53% or higher. It's a lose/lose situation (IMO), that most people don't think about when fading others.:howdy:

Iceman · Oct 7, 2006

I would say look back and see if some player is consistetnly losing 53% of his plays or higher to even consider this. I would be willing to bet most are not, that you think are.

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

thanx Detroit

Appreciate the input...But What If you were selective and Picked out the Guys that were Consistent losers AND Most Importantly WHO CHASED and had poor money Management skills ??? In The betting world it's Very True what U R Saying , "ouuta of 200 bets ...it's 100 wins and 100 loses "....BUT IF YOU FACTOR Poor money Management .in Many cases a PLayer Will simply Bet with Emotion and Will Not play EVERY UNit for 100 even......What Most betters Do Is Chase and Even lose More ......basically the theory , When the player wins 4 in a Row it doesn't add up to When He LOSES 4 in a row .........THAT's The PRecise REASON wHY I Believe This Concept may work ..Bottom line ......If The player is into U for 3 dimes a year , You are basically fading against him anyway R U Not plus the juice ??? SO WHY NOT VIrtually DOUble That Money is All i'm saying minus the vig ? To Me , It's A Very Calculated Risk That has A terrific Upside !!!:smoker2:

DonDollars · Oct 7, 2006

This is not a bad idea. In fact, I believe that fading the public picks (overall) is an effective tactic. In this situation,however, I think that you would find out that the vig has a stronger effect than it seems....and would perhaps negate the risk/reward potential that you are talking about.

Look back at records, if you have them, and pretend you would have faded every bet by that person this year. Look at last year also. I would love to see how it actually works out. Keep us informed.

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

thanx don

I'm Just interested in the cocept as a whole...and of course we R All looking for ways to make Extra cash with less Bs....I will definitely keep u informed

Mosi · Oct 7, 2006

For the most part, if a book plays it straight and does not tinker with lines they have little risk of the long haul. But once you start to play with lines more or start make wagers as the book you take on more risk. Back in the day when I booked I never worried on any given day what people were hammering. I new over the long haul they would not win.

With that being said:
If you really think some guy is a great fade then you have to see it all the way through. What I mean is that even the worst of the worst win a week, maybe a month or even an entire season of one sport over time. If you start fading and he is winning at what point do you give it up? I think you have to ride it out and keep fading. This could be very costly. I do not think fading against one player is in your best interest.

Now if you fade a couple of the notorious losers other issues arise. What if the two or more losers are on opposing sides? What do you do, throw out the game or choose the side yourself. All of the sudden you have to make decisions, which the local book generally does not have to make. Once most people start thinking, they begin to lose more. Where as a local book you can grab the lines, and let others make the decisions.

What worked best for me - or in your case would be to let the 25 players who play with you each week place their bets and then see where the majority of the money and total number of wagers are going. If 13 people play LSU and 1 plays Florida, I see this to be a formidable fade, But you are basically doubling down at this point and paying juice on all loses. It all depends if you are an action junky.

My advice, for what it is worth, post the lines, take the wagers, sit back and enjoy.

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

thanx mosi

Appreciate The input .......but I guess i'll try it out and c ....in the end, most gambler's LOSE, But it's NOT The JUICE that kills Them.it's their wagers and their action ......So If U Believe in that philosophy , .I think it's well worth the risk of doubling down with notable losers..

basically player loses 3 dimes a year, player B loses 1500 a year, player C loses 5 dimes a year.....FVCK IT ! Match Those Notable LOsers n it's A VERY GOOD CALCULATED RISK......................................WATCH ME BE BROKE by week 9 !!! lol :dancefool

Intruder · Oct 7, 2006

post what the known losers are on.

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

tinkering with lines....

it's interesting.......WHY Does Pinnacle make More than most Books ??? Simple.......They attract the Most ACTION ....The mOST WAGERS....They Even Timker with lines to Entice action ....in the long run they feel as though they will WIN........More RIsk....bUT GReater The reward..........basically.The Concept is to doulble the action as long as your bankroll is suff icientand the LOsers are lifelong losers !

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

Intruder said:
post what the known losers are on.

i'll try , but while i'm taking Bets , I'll Be Making Them at The same time ..lol

nhoj · Oct 7, 2006

You just might make winners out oof them losers. If you try that. Never fails.

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

nhoj said:
You just might make winners out oof them losers. If you try that. Never fails.

It Could Happen...BUT I'm Betting On Them Being Lifelong Losers! That's a Good FVckin Bet !!!!lol

Iceman · Oct 7, 2006

losing 55% of your bets is a skill. I bet you would be stunned that nobody is losing at that rate after 1,000 plays.

PO69 · Oct 7, 2006

Fading ACE's college picks is generally a nice winner!!

fivedoorsdown · Oct 7, 2006

did not work in the nfl last year. favs and public killed the books.

gold mine was fading college last year

fading certain types of nfl plays have worked well. dons fading the trap game has been money

kimchee7270 · Oct 7, 2006

once again... fading complete wagers

Iceman said:
losing 55% of your bets is a skill. I bet you would be stunned that nobody is losing at that rate after 1,000 plays.

Yes ...no Doubt u R right ..BUT Once Again....WE R BANKING ON The POor MONEY Mismanagement !!!That's Where The Reeel money is made .....Fading against the chase !!

If The casinos limited everyone to 100 $ ...do U Think they'd make money ??? THey WANT The Mix amounts of wagers ....Once again ...When most Betters win 4out of 5 , I Can Almost Guarantee THAT WHen THEY LOSE 4 out of 5 .....The money wagered on their downcycle was signaficantly More! YOU ARE NOT FADING THE UNITS ....U R FADING The AMONUT OF EACH WAGER !!! THat's Where The money Is At DUDE !!! Wake UP !

Bookie asks...does FADING WORK ??

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