Is this stupid?

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

I really like denver to win the game tonight, as I think Balt is overated and denver is underated, i believe the line should be 7, but anyway with this weather forcast..

I was just going to take them ML, -260 seemed too steep, so I bought 3 points and it knocked it down to -2.5(-190), I know thats still a shit load of vig, but if im going to take them ML, should I take that and try to save 70 cents or just be safe and take the -260

thanks for the responses

SportSavant · Oct 9, 2006

what confuses me, is you have a strong feeling that you think they will win, yet you feel the need to buy points....

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

SS, I thought of this before I posted but with the snow I could really seeing it a 10-3 type of game... and I know 10-3 would still cover the 5.5, but I feel much safer only winning by a fg.

I guess I should just take it -5.5, no?

D2bets · Oct 9, 2006

You need to decide whether there's more or less than a 6.7% chance of Balt winning by 1 or 2. Maybe a numbers guy can back me up, but my gut reaction is less than. I'm guessing the 1 is around 3% and the 2 maybe 1.5%. In that case, -2.5-190 is better than ML-260. Certainly worth considering.

D2bets · Oct 9, 2006

Personally, I'm considering going in the other direction. If I can get a +6 that I can buy 1.5 points for 30 cents up to +7.5-140 I may do just that.

Points are certainly a bit more valuable in a low total game.

Fishhead · Oct 9, 2006

With the bad weather predicted, I believe you will see DOG money coming in late, thus LOWERING the ML on the BRONCOS.

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

D2bets said:
You need to decide whether there's more or less than a 6.7% chance of Balt winning by 1 or 2. Maybe a numbers guy can back me up, but my gut reaction is less than. I'm guessing the 1 is around 3% and the 2 maybe 1.5%. In that case, -2.5-190 is better than ML-260. Certainly worth considering.

yea D2,

thats really what I was getting to...I know im going to take Denver some way here, but Im thinking -2.5 is definetely better than ML, but I just dont know if I should just grab the reg. line for the game instead.

BTW I dont see Balt scoring more than 10 points

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

Fishhead said:
With the bad weather predicted, I believe you will see DOG money coming in late, thus LOWERING the ML on the BRONCOS.

thanks fish, for the insight.

D2bets · Oct 9, 2006

jasin4000 said:
yea D2,

thats really what I was getting to...I know im going to take Denver some way here, but Im thinking -2.5 is definetely better than ML, but I just dont know if I should just grab the reg. line for the game instead.

BTW I dont see Balt scoring more than 10 points

Have you considered Balt team total U14.5?

D2bets · Oct 9, 2006

Fishhead said:
With the bad weather predicted, I believe you will see DOG money coming in late, thus LOWERING the ML on the BRONCOS.

But where do you see the spread heading? Any chance of WA 6's or even 6.5? I'm hoping, but not expecting it.

Fishhead · Oct 9, 2006

jasin4000 said:
thanks fish, for the insight.

Please note, not OVERLY positive of this........but that is my opinion and feel confortable predictiong that..........lets see what happens..........

Currently at MATCHBOOK......

BALT +242
DEN -250

PS--Understand, there are many sharps and syndicates playing the DEN side in this affair.

Fishhead · Oct 9, 2006

D2bets said:
But where do you see the spread heading? Any chance of WA 6's or even 6.5? I'm hoping, but not expecting it.

Expect it to come down as I have indicated already and in the future of lliking the BALT side this evening at various media outlets........SMALL-MEDIUM play.

But as stated in previous post, lots of sharps/syndicates on DEN side.

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

Fishhead said:
Please note, not OVERLY positive of this........but that is my opinion and feel confortable predictiong that..........lets see what happens..........

Currently at MATCHBOOK......

BALT +242
DEN -250

PS--Understand, there are many sharps and syndicates playing the DEN side in this affair.

fish can you please explain to me what a syndicate is...i know its pretty good rather than bad to be on the same side as a sharp, but what about syndicates...I understand that as a group of people making plays, but im not positive..?

Fishhead · Oct 9, 2006

jasin4000 said:
fish can you please explain to me what a syndicate is...i know its pretty good rather than bad to be on the same side as a sharp, but what about syndicates...I understand that as a group of people making plays, but im not positive..?

Syndicates run in streaks like any other gamblers.................I actually like to go AGAINST them because they AND THEIR MANY FOLLOWERS usually move the line to such a degree where I feel I have value with the other side as the line goes up with the money coming in on their side.

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

Fishhead said:
Syndicates run in streaks like any other gamblers.................I actually like to go AGAINST them because they AND THEIR MANY FOLLOWERS usually move the line to such a degree where I feel I have value with the other side as the line goes up with the money coming in on their side.

ok thanks for the understanding.

Ego74 · Oct 9, 2006

jasin4000 said:
SS, I thought of this before I posted but with the snow I could really seeing it a 10-3 type of game... and I know 10-3 would still cover the 5.5, but I feel much safer only winning by a fg.

I guess I should just take it -5.5, no?

If you see a 10-3 type game with the weather, why not play the UNDER instead??

jasin4000 · Oct 9, 2006

Tater_Salad said:
If you see a 10-3 type game with the weather, why not play the UNDER instead??

Because EVERY time i touch a total, its over by half...and not in my favor..:nopityA:

I just stay away from them because Im horrible at em.

GreenDoberman · Oct 9, 2006

As of yesterday, money was at least 20-1 on the Broncos. Take that for what it's worth.

Fishhead · Oct 9, 2006

GreenDoberman said:
As of yesterday, money was at least 20-1 on the Broncos. Take that for what it's worth.

Thanks........I will..........i'm all over the BALT side in this one ........hoping to see a +6.5 soon so I can buy to +7.

+6's popping up currently around the world.