How The Oddsmakers Create Nfl Lines

winbet

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• Oct 12, 2006

• #1

Seems to be some interest in this, with so many ex bookies, locals, people working in the trade, Pro Gamblers, and posters who tell us the value in the opening line, maybe one of them would step up and tell us how the Oddsmakers do actually create a line, dont be shy. :drink:

 

Fishhead

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• #2

Get a SHARP group of indiduals together, say 4-6 individuals and have each make their line on a game.

Then average the numbers out, discuss it amoung themselves for an hour, and then make their OPENING NUMBER.

Not rocket scientist material here if your in the business of gambling...........especially in terms of the NFL.

 

AngleBroom

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• #3

Those power ratings calculate pretty close to what the oddsmakers set the line at in most cases.

 

AngleBroom

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• #4

http://www.statfox.com/nfl/power/
Haven't looked at any NFL yet, but I'd bet if you calculate a few it's close to the opener.

 

Journeyman

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• #5

I would think many posters could look at two NFL teams and be within a half point of the actual line 90% of the time.

Starting with two virtually even teams and making the home team a 3 point favorite...it is not rocket science.

 

AngleBroom

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• #6

Journeyman said:

I would think many posters could look at two NFL teams and be within a half point of the actual line 90% of the time.

Starting with two virtually even teams and making the home team a 3 point favorite...it is not rocket science.

Click to expand...

Exactly, if you can guess a line you should pick the winner too. No science involved.

 

wilheim

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• #7

In days of legendary oddsmaker Bob Martin lines were created by using power rankings (ratings) to create a number and then offering that number to a small group of very sharp players (Outlaw Line) then Martin would sharpen his line off the play from these players..Worked extremely well by creating solid numbers year in and year out.


Today there may be more computation involved but it is still the old fashioned power ratings that are used to establish a working number.

Exotic props and such may have some other sort of formula - not sure..



wil..

 

Romanowski

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• #8

I think a lot has to do with players betting patterns and public perception vs how they believe the games will actually end

 

AngleBroom

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• #9

Romanowski said:

I think a lot has to do with players betting patterns and public perception vs how they believe the games will actually end

Click to expand...

Well if you find one of those games that doesn't coincide with the power ratings system, then circle it and study it.

 

jwunderdog

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• #10

AngleBroom said:

Exactly, if you can guess a line you should pick the winner too. No science involved.

Click to expand...

The problem with it is the NFL are never off by much and you have to be right more then 50% of the time. The books only have to be right 48 %.

If a players wants a 50/50 chance to win(not including juice) then the NFL is where you want to bet. If you are trying to find an edge there are a lot softer #s in other sports. I gave up trying to beat the NFL on a regular bases years ago.CONGRATS to anyone that has hit 53% plus over the last 5 years in the NFL, espeically after last year which was a "squares" dream year.

 

bellyputter

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• #11

Wilheim, I had the privilege of picking Bob Martin's mind a few times hanging out at Churchill Downs. He could make a # on a sporting event, faster than anyone who ever lived. Back in those days, his line was so respected, that #s didn't move like they do in this computerized day and age. He also had more tricks and beards up his sleeve than BW. Good Luck

 

WVU

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• #12

Lines are set to try to gain equal action on both sides. Therefore the actual strength of a team is not always weighed equally against each other, but rather the perception of strength by punters.