Middlers/scalpers: Is College football worth it, how do you handle it.

Iceman · Oct 17, 2006

Have mad a small killing middling NFL games and lost a few nailbiters in the process but CFB has been a little struggle (esp middling them).

I know a few on here (I think fish was one of them) says that CFB middling is difficult. It's not so much the lack of line movement as it is the game even being remotely close to the number.

With all that said I have a fabuolus start to the WHOLE football season but CFB middling may be a waste of time, not sure yet.

I make sure I am middling only around key numbers and not messing with totals. But the last 2 weeks have been a waste of time and the whole season is has been around even.

Any thoughts?

Iceman · Oct 17, 2006

I should add that scalping these games maybe the way to go but I am not even sure if this is useful. Anyone do this?

GreenDoberman · Oct 17, 2006

There's a much higher standard deviation and variance in college than the NFL.
It can be a frustrating thing I'm sure.
If it is causing you to lose some discipline, it is a sure sign to step back.
You are probably one of the most inquisitive posters on this board, and I have no doubt you will figure it out Iceman.
Remember it is all about the challenge in your words, so keep on doing what you are trying to accomplish.
Not for me personally, but I know you will find a way to make it work.
:103631605

Doug · Oct 17, 2006

basketball is better, every number is much more live. You just have to correctly predict moves.

sean1 · Oct 17, 2006

Much more money to be made hitting 53% against reduced vig than middling college football.... College lines are not accurate.

Sean

Iceman · Oct 17, 2006

GreenDoberman said:
There's a much higher standard deviation and variance in college than the NFL.
It can be a frustrating thing I'm sure.
If it is causing you to lose some discipline, it is a sure sign to step back.
You are probably one of the most inquisitive posters on this board, and I have no doubt you will figure it out Iceman.
Remember it is all about the challenge in your words, so keep on doing what you are trying to accomplish.
Not for me personally, but I know you will find a way to make it work.

thanks for the very kind words. Like I said I am VERY happy with the results up till now BUT a little self doubt is creeping in with CFB. It seems like the NFL games are almost always so close (which is very true) and cfb (though the same sport) is totally different.:toast:

Iceman · Oct 17, 2006

sean1 said:
Much more money to be made hitting 53% against reduced vig than middling college football.... College lines are not accurate.

Sean

I know what you are saying and am leaning that way but I just don't follow CFB closely enough. Think I may just ride the coattails of a few others that I respect. Not sure yet.

Iceman · Oct 17, 2006

Sean,
I really respect your whole overall approach to gambling. I seen your plays at EOG and am wondering are most of your plays geared towards just betting line moves, computer programs capping the game, following some well respected cappers, your own power ratings, etc....

I have a great feel for the NFL and with my power ratings at my side I feel that can win just don't have that feeling in CFB.

jwunderdog · Oct 17, 2006

As already stated, #s do not hit nearly as much in NCAA Vs NFL. I think 3 hits around 5% in the NCAA and after that the "hit" #s go way down. Best advice bet the line before the move and just take the best #.

Santo · Oct 17, 2006

7 hits more than 3 in NCAA. 3 isn't the key number it is in NFL.

jwunderdog · Oct 17, 2006

7 also hits around 5%. Don't track it anymore so my charts are 2 years out of date, I would guess they haven't changed much.

Santo · Oct 17, 2006

It's more the dropoff I took issue with, there are 4-5 numbers that hit around 5%.

sean1 · Oct 17, 2006

For those who want to know:

1, 3, 7, 10, 17, 24, 31 are around 5%.

People give me shit for 1 and 31 since there are not many games lined at those numbers, but when they have been, they have hit...

Half totals, key numbers are 17, 20, 24

Half sides, 3, 4, 7, 10, 14 over minimal data - I don't have many years.

Sean

Hitman26 · Oct 17, 2006

Seems like more College games are hitting around the number this year because of the shortened games. Especially the totals.

jwunderdog · Oct 17, 2006

Santo said:
7 hits more than 3 in NCAA. 3 isn't the key number it is in NFL.

I must have been typing as you were posting this.:toast:

nimue77 · Oct 17, 2006

Are you kidding? CFB is much easier to arb than NFL.

Iceman said:
Have mad a small killing middling NFL games and lost a few nailbiters in the process but CFB has been a little struggle (esp middling them).

I know a few on here (I think fish was one of them) says that CFB middling is difficult. It's not so much the lack of line movement as it is the game even being remotely close to the number.

With all that said I have a fabuolus start to the WHOLE football season but CFB middling may be a waste of time, not sure yet.

I make sure I am middling only around key numbers and not messing with totals. But the last 2 weeks have been a waste of time and the whole season is has been around even.

Any thoughts?

nimue77 · Oct 17, 2006

What? No way does 7 hit more than 3 in cfb. The numbers may not hit as high of a percentage...but the numbers hit in the same order...3,7,4,6 etc...

Santo said:
7 hits more than 3 in NCAA. 3 isn't the key number it is in NFL.

D2bets · Oct 17, 2006

nimue77 said:
Are you kidding? CFB is much easier to arb than NFL.

I concur that CFB is better than NFL, partly because there are so many more games to chew on. Also because they move so much more on game day.

Santo · Oct 17, 2006

nimue77 said:
What? No way does 7 hit more than 3 in cfb. The numbers may not hit as high of a percentage...but the numbers hit in the same order...3,7,4,6 etc...

I have 7 hitting about 0.75% more than 3, other way round if you look at games lined within 1/2pt.