Bought back my 1 unit on the Cardinals Moneyline...New Play with the rest and rain delay:
2* Mets/Cards over 9 -104
People talk about the pitchers, but there are 2 well-rested lineups here that swung it well last game.
As I said in an earlier thread, soft lefties like Glavine have a hard time shutting down the same team in the same week. You usually get to a pitcher like this once you've seen him a few times, especially if he's not getting his corners. Throw in the fact that we had the delay, and all these Cardinals have been thinking about the past 2 days is Tom Glavine. I think they'll have a good approach at the plate tonight vs. him, especially with their backs against the wall here. They gotta have this game so they dont go down to NY needing to win both games.
Glavine has pitched well in these playoffs, but both starts were at home. Getting Glavine out of his comfort zone here and on a different mound. I also dont think a guy at his age can throw 3 games straight of 0-1 run ball.
We all know what the Mets lineup can do. Weaver is inconsistent. Mets should get at least 4-5 here.
The home plate umpire tonight is 17-14 on overs, and typically favors the home team. Games he umpires averge 9.8 runs per game.
Some trends that I think have some merit for this game:
-Over is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
-Over is 8-3 in Mets last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter
-Over is 3-0 in Glavine's last 3 road starts.
-Over is 8-2 in Glavine's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
-Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Over is 3-0 in Weaver's last 3 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
-Over is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 night starts.
These trends tell me Weaver gets hit in night games. He gets hit after a loss (aka, he gets hit when another team is swinging it well), Cardinals have been hitting lefties well at home. Mets offense steps up in big games, when they play good teams on the road. Mets have been hitting righties well on the road.
I dont hold any weight for trends of who did what when it was a Tuesday in December and the line was +110 or less vs. a starter who had a bowel movement 3 hours prior to game time. Most of those trends favor the under.
Good luck as always
2* Mets/Cards over 9 -104
People talk about the pitchers, but there are 2 well-rested lineups here that swung it well last game.
As I said in an earlier thread, soft lefties like Glavine have a hard time shutting down the same team in the same week. You usually get to a pitcher like this once you've seen him a few times, especially if he's not getting his corners. Throw in the fact that we had the delay, and all these Cardinals have been thinking about the past 2 days is Tom Glavine. I think they'll have a good approach at the plate tonight vs. him, especially with their backs against the wall here. They gotta have this game so they dont go down to NY needing to win both games.
Glavine has pitched well in these playoffs, but both starts were at home. Getting Glavine out of his comfort zone here and on a different mound. I also dont think a guy at his age can throw 3 games straight of 0-1 run ball.
We all know what the Mets lineup can do. Weaver is inconsistent. Mets should get at least 4-5 here.
The home plate umpire tonight is 17-14 on overs, and typically favors the home team. Games he umpires averge 9.8 runs per game.
Some trends that I think have some merit for this game:
-Over is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
-Over is 8-3 in Mets last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter
-Over is 3-0 in Glavine's last 3 road starts.
-Over is 8-2 in Glavine's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
-Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
-Over is 3-0 in Weaver's last 3 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
-Over is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 night starts.
These trends tell me Weaver gets hit in night games. He gets hit after a loss (aka, he gets hit when another team is swinging it well), Cardinals have been hitting lefties well at home. Mets offense steps up in big games, when they play good teams on the road. Mets have been hitting righties well on the road.
I dont hold any weight for trends of who did what when it was a Tuesday in December and the line was +110 or less vs. a starter who had a bowel movement 3 hours prior to game time. Most of those trends favor the under.
Good luck as always
