Forget the 'bad beat'

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Bad beat stories and the lament caused by bad breaks are an epidemic among gamblers of all stripes. Even worse, many of us are sometimes prone to self-lamenting.

Read the rest of Wild Bill's latest column by going to the RX home page at www.therx.com

Charlie

:modemman:
 
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Before the Monday night football game I needed 2.4 fantasy pts. for my team to win this week. I had Grossman at QB, Muhshin at WR, and Benson at RB(don't ask). Arizona ranked like 29th in pass D, now that's a bad beat.
 

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Easy for him to say.

Try losing a 5 team teaser that paid 5 figures on Dallas +7.5 against Philly 2 weeks ago.

Yeah, real easy to shrug those off.:nopityA: :smoking:
 

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I liked this article and many other of Bills.

Now the Bad news.

I HATED the recharge the battery article.

Do tax accountants take March off? Do Jewelry Stores shut down in December?

Taking 1.7 days off in September is a terrible move for someone in this business. Taking 17 days is asinine.

You've got 4/1-8/15 to recharge your batteries. Anyone burned out early in September is going something very, very wrong. If you have a clue in this industry, you win in September. I cannot believe that recharge batttery article. I still am in shock reading it.

Bill, you are doing something terribly wrong if you aren't winning in September. Time to buy some NEW batteries if you ask me.

:smoking:
 

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Fezzik said:
Now the Bad news.

I HATED the recharge the battery article.

Do tax accountants take March off? Do Jewelry Stores shut down in December?

Taking 1.7 days off in September is a terrible move for someone in this business. Taking 17 days is asinine.

You've got 4/1-8/15 to recharge your batteries. Anyone burned out early in September is going something very, very wrong. If you have a clue in this industry, you win in September. I cannot believe that recharge batttery article. I still am in shock reading it.

Bill, you are doing something terribly wrong if you aren't winning in September. Time to buy some NEW batteries if you ask me.

:smoking:

My "money" sports are baseball and hockey. I only bet modestly on football and basketball because I have found my return on investment in both to be far weaker than in the other two. I have to assume this is far different than many people's betting schedule. If I was as football dependent as Fezzik of course I wouldn't take September off.

Key is that at some point you should take at least a month off cleanly. Not periods of time over a year equaling a month but one full month. I assume many people use the summer for this and know I am a rare bettor, but I think a number of people would come out ahead taking September off whether they bet football a lot or not.
 

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I agree 100% with take time off.

Everyone I know making real money at this hates the baseball season, loves the football season.

Im not saying you won't win in bases, just that it is arguably the hardest sport. If you can win in bases, you should be able to clobber football.

1. Baseball has little square action.
2. Baseball does not have all the great promos and rogue number, free 1/2 points, etc.
3. Football has the dimeline now that used to be baseballs claim to be the most beatable sport.
4. Recharging your batteries at the end of a year makes sense. Doing it in Sept is horrific, since how are you going to catch up to bet football in October if you were on a beach in Sept?

Bill, I think if you take wagering seriously one day, you will look back on your article and shake your head.
 

Honey Badger Don't Give A Shit
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FEZZIK, I've read dozens of similar posts and essays within the past seven years authored by a bevy of respected cappers and players.

And the words, "baseball", "football", "Baskets" and even a few times "Hockey" are almost interchangeable within the essays depending on author.

I'm a small stakes but consistent participant in sports wagering going back those same seven years.

While I've had some modest successful months during football (College more often than pro), my personal bests have come during NHL, NBA and the second half of the MLB season.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who experiences success in those sports while struggling for whatever reasons with football.

That said, BILL's advice to take periodic breaks makes excellent sense.

In your own case, if you truly find the period of April 1 to Aug 1 the toughest, that's your time to break.

Others may choose to grab a different week or more at a different time in the calendar.

If you're someone willing to learn the five major sports, it's a year round biz anyway so the 30-60 days (less or more) that you take off can fall anywhere.
 

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Fezzik said:
Im not saying you won't win in bases, just that it is arguably the hardest sport. If you can win in bases, you should be able to clobber football.
quote]

I disagree. In football with laying juice, it's more difficult to identify whether you have a mathematical edge or not. In baseball, it doesn't take a genious to figure out that when you can take +115 or lay -110 on a game there's an edge there. Also, baseball has streaks that are unmatched in pointspread sports. There was nothing the books could do but take it when the Royals lost everyday for two weeks straight earlier in the year, for instance. In pointspread sports, they just jack up the points to make it harder to simply ride streaks. Football is a 16 game schedule in the NFL and even a shorter one in college. Baseball you have 30 teams playing 162 games...and a shitload of props. Baseball doesn't need promos to give an astute bettor the edge.

Football is the toughest to beat. That's why books come out of the woodword for football season. One of the reasons they went to a dimeline in football is because they were kicking the shit out of everyone so bad at 11/10 they could afford to go with even booking at -105.
 

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