Proof that the public is WAY smarter than 10 years ago- Indianapolis +3

Iceman · Oct 29, 2006

Bet Indy +3 (for alot) early in week hoping to buy back as -2.5 or lower. 3 is so HUGE in NFL spreads but can't beleieve the number never dropped. I think alot more sharps bet offshore and they are the ones that make the market. 10 years ago this game is closer to even.

SportSavant · Oct 29, 2006

i dont follow? someone is betting Denver, even at -3 (a key number) who is it?

is it the public or sharps?

Iceman · Oct 29, 2006

found some -2.5 at SIA. Good ole SIA saves the day. :dancefool

Iceman · Oct 29, 2006

SportSavant said:
i dont follow? someone is betting Denver, even at -3 (a key number) who is it?

is it the public or sharps?

I just thought once the public (usually close to gameday) got wind of the fact that thig bad Colts are actually getting points they would knock this down a notch. The Colts are for sure as HUGE public team, as they almost always win but the books still posted a HUGE key number at -3 knowing that it will NO WAY EVER go above that number, I felt that grabbing +3 now and waiting for the public to drive the number down setting up a shot at pushing one bet(+3) and winning the other(-2.5).

I think (and I could be wrong ) that because of the internet and forums like this, that the public is more well informed and just doens't pick up a newspaper on gameday like they used to and bet (percieved)on the better team.

I also think most sharps and the heavy amounts they bet are OFFSHORE and the offshore market is WAY WAY bigger than 10 years ago. I think the NFL is the easiest market in all sports to forecast line movement but this one surprised me. Just my opinion on a boring Sunday:howdy:

FairWarning · Oct 29, 2006

The majority of tout newsletters had Denver as a play.

cincy_ · Oct 29, 2006

Iceman said:
found some -2.5 at SIA. Good ole SIA saves the day.

They had -2.5 in a lot of books on Saturday morning.

Woody0 · Oct 29, 2006

cincy_ said:
They had -2.5 in a lot of books on Saturday morning.

2.5 was widely available early today. I waited for +3 and got it at 12:30 pm EST.

Woody0 · Oct 29, 2006

Regarding sides I'm PO'd Kansas went for and made 2 point conversion in 4th to sink my Seattle+6 /Kansas-4 play.

Iceman · Oct 29, 2006

Where we you guys seeing -2.5. I have my Don Best account up ALL day and NEVER seen it for 1 second. Like I said I found -2.5 at SIA but they are as unique as they come.

6under · Oct 29, 2006

Woody0 said:
Regarding sides I'm PO'd Kansas went for and made 2 point conversion in 4th to sink my Seattle+6 /Kansas-4 play.

Had a very similar middle opportunity on that game.

KC -3.5
Sea +6

Was getting excited when I know they would go for 2 if they scored...then the freaking converted it!

ucking:

FairWarning · Oct 30, 2006

Iceman said:
Where we you guys seeing -2.5. I have my Don Best account up ALL day and NEVER seen it for 1 second. Like I said I found -2.5 at SIA but they are as unique as they come.

Thursday and Friday there were -2.5, then the tout sheets came out.