Fishhead said:Interesting play ICEMAN...........your always thinking.
Wish I had your youth.
wink
Youth? Wish I still had it too (I'm 35, but a young 35
uppy: ). I will trade you for your wisdom, well maybe not (just playing). But I dont want to get much older, starting to feel it.After looking closely at their numbers and noticing how everyone is giving up on them (the bashers are still coming in this thread) and most importantly they still play 5 games in their division, I think at 6-1 it isn't that bad.
There yards per play (5.4 on offense and give up 4.6 on defense) are IDENTICAL to their numbers at the end of last season. The problem I have is I just don't know if I could root for Cowher, he irritates(sp) me!!!
25-1 means there is a 4% chance of them winning the division/making the playoffs. Thank god some of you aren't bookies. I think it is safe to say they have better than a 4% of making the playoffs. 6-1 is around 15% chance. I am looking for just a little better. I said it is a value play and 6-1 is close to value. Not saying likely but not completly out of the question, either.
Iceman,
most your posts are very intelligent.
6-1 is ridiculous. It is off by a factor of 5-10.
Over the past 15 years, how many 2-5 teams have made the playoffs? I would guess without going back and counting 2 or less. And this year it is gonna take 10-6 (Not 9-7)
If I booked bets, I would happily let you bet at 15/1 as much as you wanted. Worse case scenario, Pitt would need to win the last game and i could just lay off.
I think you'd need 30-40/1 to even consider playing this.
Sean
most your posts are very intelligent.
6-1 is ridiculous. It is off by a factor of 5-10.
Over the past 15 years, how many 2-5 teams have made the playoffs? I would guess without going back and counting 2 or less. And this year it is gonna take 10-6 (Not 9-7)
If I booked bets, I would happily let you bet at 15/1 as much as you wanted. Worse case scenario, Pitt would need to win the last game and i could just lay off.
I think you'd need 30-40/1 to even consider playing this.
Sean
Okay, like i said in an earlier post that I am thinking out loud and wanted to hear some opinions, which I appreciate.
Most teams starting out 2-5 have a 2-5% chance of coming back and making the playoffs but the past SB champ who (and here is the key thing) have EXCELLEENT numbers that I follow religiously have a better chance then those AVERAGE numbers. I think they are going to be heard from and will make some noise and I am trying to think of a way to exploit this and MAX out on this oppurtunity.
Just betting them to win every week is a high possibility but after a few wins all the value will be gone, so I am thinking ofa more realistic way of making some good money off of them.
It can get pretty tight when you are taking about a 5% chance of making it and I am taking about a 10-15% chance but in reality that doubles my payoff, so yes I have to be extra careful and find a great line (which I haven't done yet).
Also I am not big on betting many futures for the same reason others are (money being held too long, when I can leverage that many times over during that time peorid).
Either way, like I said I appreciate and respect all the good answers on this thread. I knew they would be well thought out. Anytime you find something above 3-1 it is going to being overwhelmingly (sp) shot down.
I have put together these power ratings, that I devised, for years and I haven't seen many teams (if any at all) that looks as impressive on paper as they have been and started so bad plus they are a well coached team that knows how to win not some fly by nite team. Even last game was an absolute FLUKE that they lost.
I know most are off the Steeler bandwagon and I know most have some theory why they are losing, I already know that part. To me, it is all about looking past the record of the 1st 7 games and looking at a team (who I personally don't like and can't beleieve I am defending) that has an abundance of talent and coaching and trusting my numbers going forward.
By no means do I think they are a SB contender but i think they have a legit shot (over 10% and close to 15%) when it all shakes it self out here in the next few weeks to make the playoffs.
If someone finds better than 6-1, I will look closer at it because of the holding the money for 2 months but I would like to get down on something like this and to me this offers the best value of the teams that are paying over 3-1.
Most teams starting out 2-5 have a 2-5% chance of coming back and making the playoffs but the past SB champ who (and here is the key thing) have EXCELLEENT numbers that I follow religiously have a better chance then those AVERAGE numbers. I think they are going to be heard from and will make some noise and I am trying to think of a way to exploit this and MAX out on this oppurtunity.
Just betting them to win every week is a high possibility but after a few wins all the value will be gone, so I am thinking ofa more realistic way of making some good money off of them.
It can get pretty tight when you are taking about a 5% chance of making it and I am taking about a 10-15% chance but in reality that doubles my payoff, so yes I have to be extra careful and find a great line (which I haven't done yet).
Also I am not big on betting many futures for the same reason others are (money being held too long, when I can leverage that many times over during that time peorid).
Either way, like I said I appreciate and respect all the good answers on this thread. I knew they would be well thought out. Anytime you find something above 3-1 it is going to being overwhelmingly (sp) shot down.
I have put together these power ratings, that I devised, for years and I haven't seen many teams (if any at all) that looks as impressive on paper as they have been and started so bad plus they are a well coached team that knows how to win not some fly by nite team. Even last game was an absolute FLUKE that they lost.
I know most are off the Steeler bandwagon and I know most have some theory why they are losing, I already know that part. To me, it is all about looking past the record of the 1st 7 games and looking at a team (who I personally don't like and can't beleieve I am defending) that has an abundance of talent and coaching and trusting my numbers going forward.
By no means do I think they are a SB contender but i think they have a legit shot (over 10% and close to 15%) when it all shakes it self out here in the next few weeks to make the playoffs.
If someone finds better than 6-1, I will look closer at it because of the holding the money for 2 months but I would like to get down on something like this and to me this offers the best value of the teams that are paying over 3-1.
Yes they are the best 2-5 team in the league. Will that matter? I highly doubt it. You put a lot of value in your per play stat, but much of that offensively was generated in just two games against the Chiefs and the Falcons. That suggests the same could continue, a couple of great performances where they look unbeatable and then a lot of mediocre games where they will have to get some breaks to win. Just no consistency with this team on either side of the ball.
I know they have some major ground to make up but who in their division has shown any consistency or even in the NFL outside of about 6-8 teams?
They have outgained (not yardage but yardage per play) 6 of their 7 opponents so far this year. I don't know this for fact but I am willing to bet maybe 2 teams have done better and it maybe zero. This has to prove they are alot better than 2-5.
That is the NFL product and thats what makes it so great for fans to follow. Any given Sunday (though not last year).
They have outgained (not yardage but yardage per play) 6 of their 7 opponents so far this year. I don't know this for fact but I am willing to bet maybe 2 teams have done better and it maybe zero. This has to prove they are alot better than 2-5.
That is the NFL product and thats what makes it so great for fans to follow. Any given Sunday (though not last year).
Im a bias bastard, but IF we play like we know how, I think our next loss could be vs carolina.
ov 5 Denver 4:15pm - Must win(if we lose this game, i can see us going 6-10, but if we win watch out., this is how I see it if we win this game)
Nov 12 New Orleans 4:15pm - Win vs overated saints at home
Nov 19 @Cleveland 1:00pm - Win in a close game in the dogpound
Nov 26 @Baltimore 1:00pm - Win in another close game
Dec 3 Tampa Bay 1:00pm - Win by DD at home
Dec 7 Cleveland 8:00pm - Win at home at night
Dec 17 @Carolina 1:00pm - Lose
Dec 24 Baltimore 1:00pm - Win xmas eve going to cinci for another must win
Dec 31 @Cincinnati 1:00pm - anything could happen here
.................................
so like i said, our season I believe rests on this game vs denver.
ov 5 Denver 4:15pm - Must win(if we lose this game, i can see us going 6-10, but if we win watch out., this is how I see it if we win this game)
Nov 12 New Orleans 4:15pm - Win vs overated saints at home
Nov 19 @Cleveland 1:00pm - Win in a close game in the dogpound
Nov 26 @Baltimore 1:00pm - Win in another close game
Dec 3 Tampa Bay 1:00pm - Win by DD at home
Dec 7 Cleveland 8:00pm - Win at home at night
Dec 17 @Carolina 1:00pm - Lose
Dec 24 Baltimore 1:00pm - Win xmas eve going to cinci for another must win
Dec 31 @Cincinnati 1:00pm - anything could happen here
.................................
so like i said, our season I believe rests on this game vs denver.
Good point. Broncos are a tough matchup for the Steelers, but if they can get it done there maybe they make a mini run. But I think Baltimore is the best team in the division and most here are giving them zero credit. They have gone 5-2 against a rather tough schedule, what more do they need to do to prove themselves? They have a shot at being 8-2 when they get the Steelers at home, is that going to be such an easy game? I think that might be the clincher to knock the champs out.
Looking at that schedule they will have to go 3-1 in their away games.
I can give them a gimme at home against TB and CLE.
Theoretically moving forward they would have to go 5-1 vs. DEN, NO, @CLE, @BAL, @CAR, @CIN.
Outside of CIN and NO, they play defensively-centered teams.
I'd say the true value lies much closer to double 6-1. 12-1 would be about fair, above that would make me think.
I can give them a gimme at home against TB and CLE.
Theoretically moving forward they would have to go 5-1 vs. DEN, NO, @CLE, @BAL, @CAR, @CIN.
Outside of CIN and NO, they play defensively-centered teams.
I'd say the true value lies much closer to double 6-1. 12-1 would be about fair, above that would make me think.
