Also posting odds updates (not many offering lines)
Link to Senate Poll
Link to Senate Poll
pound the +205 if your betting it
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm
Senate Balance of Power
November 3, 2006
On the final Friday of Election 2006, Democrats take the lead for the first time in the race for control of the U.S. Senate. Today, Rasmussen Reports is switching two states (New Jersey and Montana from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”). We now rate 49 Senate seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat, 48 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and three as Toss-Ups. We polled in each of the Toss-Up States (Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia) on Thursday night and this may lead to further shifts in the Senate Balance of Power ratings. (see State-by-State Summary).
Both Montana and New Jersey had been listed as “Leans Democrat” for most of Election 2006. However, late surges by the GOP candidates pushed both temporarily into the Toss-Up category. Three other races are also currently in the “Leans Democrat” column--Rhode Island, Ohio, and Maryland.
Democrats have to win each of the leaners and two of the three Toss-Ups to reach the magic number of 51 and gain control of the Senate. If the Democrats win the leaners and just one Toss-Up, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.
Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D) is now running for re-election as a Independent after losing a Primary Campaign to Ned Lamont (D). However, this race has no impact on the Senate Balance of Power considerations since whichever candidate wins will line up as a Democrat when the Senate convenes next January.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/BalanceofPower.htm
Senate Balance of Power
November 3, 2006
On the final Friday of Election 2006, Democrats take the lead for the first time in the race for control of the U.S. Senate. Today, Rasmussen Reports is switching two states (New Jersey and Montana from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat”). We now rate 49 Senate seats as Democrat or Leans Democrat, 48 seats as Republican or Leans Republican and three as Toss-Ups. We polled in each of the Toss-Up States (Tennessee, Missouri and Virginia) on Thursday night and this may lead to further shifts in the Senate Balance of Power ratings. (see State-by-State Summary).
Both Montana and New Jersey had been listed as “Leans Democrat” for most of Election 2006. However, late surges by the GOP candidates pushed both temporarily into the Toss-Up category. Three other races are also currently in the “Leans Democrat” column--Rhode Island, Ohio, and Maryland.
Democrats have to win each of the leaners and two of the three Toss-Ups to reach the magic number of 51 and gain control of the Senate. If the Democrats win the leaners and just one Toss-Up, there would be a 50-50 tie. In that circumstance, Vice-President Dick Cheney would cast the deciding vote in his Constitutional role as the presiding officer of the Senate.
Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (D) is now running for re-election as a Independent after losing a Primary Campaign to Ned Lamont (D). However, this race has no impact on the Senate Balance of Power considerations since whichever candidate wins will line up as a Democrat when the Senate convenes next January.
As a Republican, the only advantage for the Dems winning the Senate (this assumes they win the House as well) is that they will do such a shitty job over those 2 years that it will ensure a Republican Presidential win in 2008.
I cannot say, in all good conscience, that the Republicans deserve to retian power of both the House and Senate. Overall, we have not provided the type of leadership I expected or desired.
I am so sad.
I cannot say, in all good conscience, that the Republicans deserve to retian power of both the House and Senate. Overall, we have not provided the type of leadership I expected or desired.
I am so sad.
Dems have to win 5 of 6 close races as I understand it. Seeing as how they have no message other than 'Republicans suck' and 'the war is not going swimmingly', I'm not sure they can do this.
This election is a referendum on Iraq, and since the Dems have offered nothing but criticism of that war, I have a hard time imagining that they can sway normally-Republican voters. Independents, maybe, but not Pubs.
This one comes down to turnout. Dem supporters tend to turn out less; this may be even more true this time around, since the media is making it seem like a Dem landslide is in the works.
Disclaimer: I bought the Dems to win the Senate back in Sept at +377. I don't expect to cash it, but had to appreciate the value at the time.
This election is a referendum on Iraq, and since the Dems have offered nothing but criticism of that war, I have a hard time imagining that they can sway normally-Republican voters. Independents, maybe, but not Pubs.
This one comes down to turnout. Dem supporters tend to turn out less; this may be even more true this time around, since the media is making it seem like a Dem landslide is in the works.
Disclaimer: I bought the Dems to win the Senate back in Sept at +377. I don't expect to cash it, but had to appreciate the value at the time.
Bush to Botch Joke About Stupid Troops
David Weigel | November 3, 2006, 11:39am
Probably not, but he could do worse. Rasmussen, the uber-pollster who tracks such things, finds that even a post-gaffe John Kerry is less unpopular than George W. Bush.
Forty-one percent (41%) of Americans approve of the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove. These figures include 22% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.
...
John Kerry, following his recent gaffe, is viewed favorably by 40% of Americans and unfavorably by 49%. Still, Democrats as a political party may be peaking at just the right time. They have a six-point advantage in party identification headling into Election 2006. That's their biggest monthly advantage of the last two campaign cycles.
More and more, I'm feeling like my contrarian take on the Kerry kerfuffle was the right one. Republicans needed to build their narrative and momentum in the final week of the campaign to re-convert voters who, for months, have been leaning Democratic. The Kerry story froze the race in place and distracted Republicans and Democrats alike for two days. Most polls taken during the kerfuffle show Democrats keeping or extending their leads. GOP futures have plunged on trading sites - TradeSports has House odds at 25 percent, Senate odds at 69 percent. The best indicators: Bush has dropped Kerry references from his stump speeches and the RNC has shelved its anti-Kerry web ad.
The real takeaway from the kerfuffle might have been just how terrified Democrats remain when they see their own shadows.
http://reason.com/blog/show/116412.html
David Weigel | November 3, 2006, 11:39am
Probably not, but he could do worse. Rasmussen, the uber-pollster who tracks such things, finds that even a post-gaffe John Kerry is less unpopular than George W. Bush.
Forty-one percent (41%) of Americans approve of the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disapprove. These figures include 22% who Strongly Approve and 41% who Strongly Disapprove.
...
John Kerry, following his recent gaffe, is viewed favorably by 40% of Americans and unfavorably by 49%. Still, Democrats as a political party may be peaking at just the right time. They have a six-point advantage in party identification headling into Election 2006. That's their biggest monthly advantage of the last two campaign cycles.
More and more, I'm feeling like my contrarian take on the Kerry kerfuffle was the right one. Republicans needed to build their narrative and momentum in the final week of the campaign to re-convert voters who, for months, have been leaning Democratic. The Kerry story froze the race in place and distracted Republicans and Democrats alike for two days. Most polls taken during the kerfuffle show Democrats keeping or extending their leads. GOP futures have plunged on trading sites - TradeSports has House odds at 25 percent, Senate odds at 69 percent. The best indicators: Bush has dropped Kerry references from his stump speeches and the RNC has shelved its anti-Kerry web ad.
The real takeaway from the kerfuffle might have been just how terrified Democrats remain when they see their own shadows.
http://reason.com/blog/show/116412.html
WVU said:
It may have been true back in the days of the draft, but not today. All public figures must realize everything, and I mean everything they say publicly, will be scrutinized, therefore, they should just stay away from making any remarks that might be considered offensive, especially since the Clinton administration made political correctness a national statement.
WVU said:
The Kerry statement (I'm reluctant to call it a joke) was intended to be directed at Bush being "stuck in Iraq" (due to his intellectual laziness), but came out sounding differently. The resulting fake outrage from the right might not have been there if there wasn't an element of truth in the way it was worded
.
