Puckheads and Iceman

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Hey guys, thought you might be able to answer my question. Iceman, you seem to know about this stuff. What is the value of a half goal on hockey totals? Is U6.5 -125, O6 -110 great, good, marginal? Where abouts does it become +EV?
Thanks for the help!
 

Rx God
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I think it has decent potential, 6 is a very common result.
 

Rx God
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I'd need a friend with a database to run numbers, but off the top off my head this looks playable ( Buffalo ?). I'd surely play it at 25 cents total juice. It is probably at least break-even at these numbers.

You need to figure the chances of it landing on 6 ( in percentage) and work from there. You need data, but nothing older than last year ( rule change).
 

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bootsnixon said:
Hey guys, thought you might be able to answer my question. Iceman, you seem to know about this stuff. What is the value of a half goal on hockey totals? Is U6.5 -125, O6 -110 great, good, marginal? Where abouts does it become +EV?
Thanks for the help!

Here's a quick estimate, 5Dimes lets you play it over 6 -130, under 6.5 -130, take the 20 cents of vig off, and -120 both ways probably comes close to breaking even, so less than 40 cents total vig, is likely to show a profit. I'd start looking to bet it hard at 30 cents or less total juice. 35 cents should be profitable.
 

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Nice analysis Doug. I did not think of solving the problem that way. I do not have data of totals in the NHL and was stuck with out it. I agree with taking out a books vig will probably get to breakeven. It gets me in the ballpark for sure. I appreciate it.
 

Rx Wizard
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Wish I could help you but have never really bet hockey and don't know a thing about it.

Plan on getting into it when football is done and I promise I will ask a ton of questions:puppy: . I would take what Doug says as solid advice, a very sharp guy.

Also great point by SS. From trying to side/middle a baseball game I know that the value of a half a run is alot more if the number is odd for the exact same reasons.

Good Luck!!!
 

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