Obviously the book (not sure which one is offering it) won't take any "real" money on this (my guess is it'll have a $100 limit) but even at -30000 I'd have to consider the "no" an overlay. First of all, he'd have to come to the US which would require some serious thawing in the US/N. Korea relationship. Even if this *were* to happen--which I doubt as long as Bush has North Korea as one of his "axis of evil" fantasy league teams, diplomatic changes like this happen very incrementally and it wouldn't happen before the end of the NBA season. Even if Kim said tomorrow that he was wrong to test nukes, invited UN inspectors to watch while he dismantled the nuclear program and formally apologize to the world community and Bush in particular, he won't be a welcome guest in the US for a couple of years at the earliest...
And even if he *was* able to travel to the US--which he won't--you'd then have to consider the security concerns of throwing one of the world's most hated dictators in the United Center. The "true odds" of this happening before the end of the 2006-7 season would be in the neighborhood of 100,000 to 1 if not higher. So, from a theoretical standpoint at least, the -30000 represents an overlay. At this price however and with the likely low limit on the bet its not really worth playing from a practical standpoint...
Oddly enough, when I was a kid my uncle took me to an Atlanta Flames hockey game and I got to shake hands with a world leader in attendance--none other than The Prince of Wales himself, Prince Charles. Of course those were in the more innocent pre 9/11 days when security wasn't as big of a concern. In other words, I wouldn't expect to see Kim sitting on the bench next to Scott Skiles any time soon...
And even if he *was* able to travel to the US--which he won't--you'd then have to consider the security concerns of throwing one of the world's most hated dictators in the United Center. The "true odds" of this happening before the end of the 2006-7 season would be in the neighborhood of 100,000 to 1 if not higher. So, from a theoretical standpoint at least, the -30000 represents an overlay. At this price however and with the likely low limit on the bet its not really worth playing from a practical standpoint...
Oddly enough, when I was a kid my uncle took me to an Atlanta Flames hockey game and I got to shake hands with a world leader in attendance--none other than The Prince of Wales himself, Prince Charles. Of course those were in the more innocent pre 9/11 days when security wasn't as big of a concern. In other words, I wouldn't expect to see Kim sitting on the bench next to Scott Skiles any time soon...
Matt Rain said:
I sure don't see a lot of people throwing money at the "YES" with only a +2000 takeback. If I'm going to hit something that is essentialy like getting struck by lighting, shooting a hole in one and winning the lottery on the same day I want to get a lot more do-re-mi for my luck ; )
