Some Movie Locks

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Rx Wizard
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1) this is a 3-day weekend.
2) while the kiddies flock to "Borat", mom and dad and older dating couples will be in the mood for something more mature.
3) NEVER underestimate the draw of Russell Crowe in a chick flick, no matter how bad.
4) NEVER underestimate the draw of Brad Pitt, especially in a GOOD movie.

To that end, here are the plays (Pinny):


<TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>Wager Type: Proposition/Future

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>
Selection 1 : Movies
A Good Year (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for A Good Year

105) Over 9 million +213

Risking 500.00 to Win 1,065.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER></PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>
Selection 2 : Movies
Babel (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for Babel

503) Over 9.5 million -127

Risking 1,270.00 to Win 1,000.00 USD </PRE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>
 

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<TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>Wager Type: Proposition/Future

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>
Selection 1 : Movies
A Good Year (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for A Good Year

105) Over 9 million +199

Risking 100000.00 to Win 199000.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER></PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>
Selection 2 : Movies
Babel (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for Babel

503) Over 9.5 million -140

Risking 140000.00 to Win 100000.00 USD </PRE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Hope you are right this is some big action.
 

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I see limits now have reached 300us for me.

I like Babel (took a 9) but A Good Year has flop written all over it. I don't believe Russell Crowe is a big draw, especially in a romantic comedy. It flopped in the UK and it really can't be anybody's first choice this weekend with all the competition. Its a low number but it still needs about 4400 per theatre which seems unlikely.

Stranger Than Fiction to go over 14 looks nice. Good star power leading with Ferrell and Hoffman. Its had great publicity this week and the reviews are solid. It should get some of Ferrell's fans as well as some of the older crowd. In 2250+ theatres it needs about 6300 per theatre.
 

Rx Wizard
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HPark1 said:
I see limits now have reached 300us for me.

I like Babel (took a 9) but A Good Year has flop written all over it. I don't believe Russell Crowe is a big draw, especially in a romantic comedy. It flopped in the UK and it really can't be anybody's first choice this weekend with all the competition. It is a low number but it still needs about 4400 per theatre which seems unlikely.

Stranger Than Fiction to go over 14 looks nice. Good star power leading with Ferrell and Hoffman. Its had great publicity this week and the reviews are solid. It should get some of Ferrell's fans as well as some of the older crowd. In 2250+ theatres it needs about 6300 per theatre.


I know "A Good Year" over is longshot, thats why it was +214 for me.
My thinking is that it will be an "overflow" selection or a spur of the moment date chick flick that just might eke out enough from the unsuspecting public on a high movie watching weekend (who will initially think its another "A Beautiful Mind" type pic given the title).
 

WVU

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what you have to check is how many theaters will be showing the movie. It doesn't matter if people like the movie or not, if it is being shown in 6,000 theaters then it will do well regardless.
 

Rx Wizard
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WVU said:
what you have to check is how many theaters will be showing the movie. It doesn't matter if people like the movie or not, if it is being shown in 6,000 theaters then it will do well regardless.


Both a Good Year and Babel are being released Nationwide, unlimited.
 

Rx Wizard
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Babel just moved to -9.5 million -125. Reviews are excellent so far.

Doubling up the play at that price. I expect around 12-15 million total take.

Selection 1 : Movies
Babel (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for Babel

503) Over 9.5 million -125

Risking 1,250.00 to Win 1,000.00 USD
 

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ppeter said:
Babel just moved to -9.5 million -125. Reviews are excellent so far.

Doubling up the play at that price. I expect around 12-15 million total take.

Selection 1 : Movies
Babel (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for Babel

503) Over 9.5 million -125

Risking 1,250.00 to Win 1,000.00 USD



wow just throwing the money around!

Babel's theatre count is only 1225ish. A Good Year is 2066.

12-15 is pretty optimistic. Very few R rated movies hit 10k per theatre.
 

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Thanks for your input Hpark, you obviously know what you are talking about, which is evidenced by having the 300 limits like myself. Anyone that has 1000 can not be doing harm to pinny's bottom line.
 

Rx Wizard
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HPark1 said:
wow just throwing the money around!

Babel's theatre count is only 1225ish. A Good Year is 2066.

12-15 is pretty optimistic. Very few R rated movies hit 10k per theatre.


Hmmmm. Good point about the screen count, I thought both were around 2000. Where did you get those numbers?
 

Member
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the limits are the same for everyone...try to get down when they post the openers...its 100max's and you have to wait 2minutes to place another bet...

a good year is gonna be a A GOOD FLOP like HPark said...btw its now down to 8.5 un-85...my under 10 looks really good right now...

and i dont believe for a second you got down a dime on babel in 1 bet...you bet the max 300 or 350 whatever it currently is bc pinny adjusts as the lines settle in...then they adjust the line AGAIN...and if you rebet it again...they ADJUST IT AGAIN....so 1225 for 1000 is horseshit unless you played 4max bets at various prices and they average out to 1225/1000


fwiw i bet over babel 9million -108 on the opener and even that i have serious doubts about...

this guy is just throwing out plays with no logic behind them...like Hpark said again this movie (babel) getting 12-15k on 1200 theatres is absurd...
 

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theater counts are available at many sites which deal with the box office.

Here's one link. Couple sites with updated counts seem to be down at the moment. But they're basically in line with those estimates. Biggest differences are The Return which has 1980 something and Harsh Times has 986 or so. I think Babel's actual count is still unreleased but its unlikely to be hundreds off.

http://www.the-numbers.com/features/TCountAll.php
 

WVU

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no way does either flick get 10k per theater in November
 

Rx Wizard
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WVU said:
no way does either flick get 10k per theater in November


Babel easily averaged over $10k per screen on the previous 3 day first limited release weekend (although I realize that the limited releases were on screens/cities targeted to generate buzz).

From HParks link (thanks Hpark)

ch-tl.gif
Weekend Chart Record


<TABLE id=weekendchart cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR><TH>Date</TH><TH>Rank</TH><TH> </TH><TH>Gross</TH><TH>% Change</TH><TH>Theaters</TH><TH>Per Theater</TH><TH>Total Gross</TH><TH>Days</TH></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>10/27/2006</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>24</TD><TD id=arrow vAlign=center>
uarrow.gif
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>$389,351</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right> </TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>7</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>$55,622</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>$389,351</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>3</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>11/3/2006</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>20</TD><TD id=arrow vAlign=center>
uarrow.gif
</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>$919,235</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>+136.09%</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>35</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>$26,264</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>$1,470,614</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>10</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

Rx Wizard
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I have faith in Babel

But from the steam to the under, I stand alone it seems.

I will drop another unit on the over (cough cough), to make it a total of 3 units risked (as high as I go on movie plays).



<TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>Wager Type: Proposition/Future

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>
Selection 1 : Movies
Babel (must be released Nov 10) Nov 10-12
Opening 3 day weekend box office for Babel

503) Over 9.5 million +170

Risking 1,000.00 to Win 1,700.00 USD </PRE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>
 

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Are you the only person with a dime limit on box office? Everyone else's limit appears to be the usual 350.
 

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