99% on Team A....

6under · Nov 10, 2006

Is it just me or has there been an amazing amount of posts regarding a % of the bets on one team and the line moved the opposite direction, blah, blah, blah?

I mean, every thread I open I find someone saying...

59% of bets on KC, yet the line went from pick to +1...
or 70% of bets on [insert team of choice] yet the lined moved from +5 to +5.5.

I understand that this information can be helpful if used properly, but I'm seen way too many people base thier bets soley on this information. Half the time the number hasn't even moved on or over a key number and people are flipping out.

Anyway, just needed to vent after seeing so many of these damn threads.

:nopityA:

Tulsa · Nov 10, 2006

:howdy: :howdy:

Why would you need to vent? If you have a great understanding then you should cash. When I see people struggle, I will post a dissent but I don't get angry. I really only get sore at bad losers or winners.

Was I in mind? I do business very similar to what you've mentioned and I don't really have trouble doing that. I have done alright but I don't win them all. There are more factors, you are correct. But today, I saw a situation (and I was waaay wrong) where it looked like a good spot to be contrarian. South Dakota State.....over 90% of bettors were on Kent State yet the line dropped quite a bit, relatively, in the hour before game time. I take it where I see it. It works most of the time for me. One of the mistakes today was that the market was thin on the game....not as much action as in many 'high profile' match-ups.

good luck

tulsa

limestonesaint · Nov 10, 2006

alot of the time I believe line movement is more of a tool than actual stats

LarryTalbot · Nov 10, 2006

people try to be too smart for their own good. They think fading the public makes them feel smart and have the feeling that they know some information that the majority don't. A lot of people don't even cap the game but think these percentages are an easy way to win at this occupation. It doesn't help when these consensus sites are picking up in popularity and you have no idea when they are skewing the information.

6under · Nov 10, 2006

Tulsa said:
:howdy: :howdy:

Why would you need to vent? If you have a great understanding then you should cash. When I see people struggle, I will post a dissent but I don't get angry. I really only get sore at bad losers or winners.

Was I in mind? I do business very similar to what you've mentioned and I don't really have trouble doing that. I have done alright but I don't win them all. There are more factors, you are correct. But today, I saw a situation (and I was waaay wrong) where it looked like a good spot to be contrarian. South Dakota State.....over 90% of bettors were on Kent State yet the line dropped quite a bit, relatively, in the hour before game time. I take it where I see it. It works most of the time for me. One of the mistakes today was that the market was thin on the game....not as much action as in many 'high profile' match-ups.

good luck

tulsa

I guess I meant more of the people who blindly say just becuase the line dropped and less bets are on that side. I do agree it is a good tool to use along with other things. I would never blindly make a play solely on bet % and line movement. Just my 2 cents but to each his own. :103631605

6under · Nov 10, 2006

wildemu said:
people try to be too smart for their own good. They think fading the public makes them feel smart and have the feeling that they know some information that the majority don't. A lot of people don't even cap the game but think these percentages are an easy way to win at this occupation. It doesn't help when these consensus sites are picking up in popularity and you have no idea when they are skewing the information.

Yes, this is what I was getting at. I've seen bet stats pulled form Wagerline where there were only afew hundred bets on each side, yet the percentage might have been 60/40.

LarryTalbot · Nov 10, 2006

Each game presents itself a different scenario. 70% may be on the patriots against the vikings and the line may be dropping. You think you hold the key to the outcome of this game and you bet the vikings.

Or, Louisville is a 70% favorite against Rutgers and have so much on the line as a program. They falter.

It's a hit and miss and doesn't give you the extra edge. In fact, I'm pretty sure you might be hitting 50% or less if you follow your wagering based only on this information.

Tulsa · Nov 10, 2006

Well, by definition, a blind bet would be putting your finger down on a paper with teams listed on it....that's a blind bet.

Betting due to percentage and line movement is not a 'blind bet' as a person is using some factor(s) to determine the choice.

Blindly betting because you have 'capped' the game by reading all the statistics and write-ups that have been offered and included in the line really chaps my hide and all...>joke<

Frankly, I don't really believe in blindly betting by using statistics that were used to develop the line to try to beat the line. It's called circular logic but to each his own as you said.

tulsa

Tulsa · Nov 10, 2006

By the way...you guys may have great rebuttals and all. I'm sure I agree with them. However, I'm out as I am working for tomorrow. This thread is fine and I agree that some people rely too much on just the things you say...as I mentioned...my mistake was on taking a thin market today.....

Also...speaking of the Rutgers game? I took Rutgers for decent coin with Buffalo in a small tease last night. Why? Because the LACK of line movement before the game with most people on Louisville. So...what do you do? I say, as stated above...to each his own if it is working.

Good luck and I'm out.

tulsa

LarryTalbot · Nov 10, 2006

OK, this weekend's primary game that everyone is going nuts over. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins. The line moving down to pk from 2.5 has everyone going crazy thinking the Dolphins are a sharp bet. There are no gimmies in this and I see people putting a ton on the fish due to this 2.5 line move. It's a significant move, but it's even worse to bet on the fish when they don't represent any value anymore. People are finding it hard to understand that the value of the line is so critical to succeeding in the long run.

As good as these line moves sound, the games around the pk line are the trickiest of them all.

6under · Nov 10, 2006

Tulsa said:
By the way...you guys may have great rebuttals and all. I'm sure I agree with them. However, I'm out as I am working for tomorrow. This thread is fine and I agree that some people rely too much on just the things you say...as I mentioned...my mistake was on taking a thin market today.....

Also...speaking of the Rutgers game? I took Rutgers for decent coin with Buffalo in a small tease last night. Why? Because the LACK of line movement before the game with most people on Louisville. So...what do you do? I say, as stated above...to each his own if it is working.

Good luck and I'm out.

tulsa

later Tulsa - there is no magic method to this business except findng something that works for each one of us. GL