They are alot of ways to beat gambling and I am not saying there is 1 sure way but take yesterday as a prime example of what I am talking about.
A year ago I would have lost that bet (or maybe pushed instead I middled it, like I am sure most other people who follow this stuff do). Most people that follow the "market" probably noticied earlier in the week that when you have a home favorite around a key number on MNF that it almost always goes over that key number in the middle of gameday or so. Samething happened with Indy game (a featured TV game) on SNF.
Now because I was reading this forum, guys like Fishhead who know this stuff up and down talked about the number bouncing back so it was smart to get at least 10.5 right then because waiting for an 11 or 12 isn't worth losing the 10.5. Than when the game hits 10 at a book like Skybook, on the bounce back, you can move number to 9.5 and bingo.
So many examples of totals yesterday in NBA and CBB where I won by a point or so and it is all about placing the bet with the steam and beating the closing line (which seems to win alot more than not in hoops for me) or something else I have focused on is what I call beating the "true" opening line( not the 1 that comes out earliest but the 1 after the public bets it for awhile and then it settles in) and getting value.
I have been studying this stuff for awhile and know I have a LONG way to go and will miss on some line movements but something I have noticied is when the number flattens out or gets to far from the opener than generally it is a good bet. It is "overbet" to much by the pubic an creates value. Though I didn't have it, the total on last nites game is a GREAT example. The number settled around 46 in the middle of last week and continued to drift down and finally bottomed out around 41.5 yesterday. Seeing an NFL total move 5 points or so (w/out an injury) and betting the number at it's apex has to be a wininng method.
Just don't think we talk about "timing" the market enough on here. It can really be profitbale for someone who has a feel for it. You have to know a few tricks and really follow the sport you are betting (hitting openers can be big also on this but also risky) and almost think like the public, but if you can get numbers at their apex on the majority of your plays than both sides are the right side mre times than not and you should win.
A year ago I would have lost that bet (or maybe pushed instead I middled it, like I am sure most other people who follow this stuff do). Most people that follow the "market" probably noticied earlier in the week that when you have a home favorite around a key number on MNF that it almost always goes over that key number in the middle of gameday or so. Samething happened with Indy game (a featured TV game) on SNF.
Now because I was reading this forum, guys like Fishhead who know this stuff up and down talked about the number bouncing back so it was smart to get at least 10.5 right then because waiting for an 11 or 12 isn't worth losing the 10.5. Than when the game hits 10 at a book like Skybook, on the bounce back, you can move number to 9.5 and bingo.
So many examples of totals yesterday in NBA and CBB where I won by a point or so and it is all about placing the bet with the steam and beating the closing line (which seems to win alot more than not in hoops for me) or something else I have focused on is what I call beating the "true" opening line( not the 1 that comes out earliest but the 1 after the public bets it for awhile and then it settles in) and getting value.
I have been studying this stuff for awhile and know I have a LONG way to go and will miss on some line movements but something I have noticied is when the number flattens out or gets to far from the opener than generally it is a good bet. It is "overbet" to much by the pubic an creates value. Though I didn't have it, the total on last nites game is a GREAT example. The number settled around 46 in the middle of last week and continued to drift down and finally bottomed out around 41.5 yesterday. Seeing an NFL total move 5 points or so (w/out an injury) and betting the number at it's apex has to be a wininng method.
Just don't think we talk about "timing" the market enough on here. It can really be profitbale for someone who has a feel for it. You have to know a few tricks and really follow the sport you are betting (hitting openers can be big also on this but also risky) and almost think like the public, but if you can get numbers at their apex on the majority of your plays than both sides are the right side mre times than not and you should win.
