I see no need for us to wait THAT long......
Damn, I ain't no spring chicken.
Ok, so the line is 3, It sure looks like it will go to 3.5 or maybe 4.
Now, IMO Balt will cover the 3 (I already bought yesterday at that #).
What do i do now?.......buy Cincy even though I don't feel they will cover (or even win the game for that matter)......and SELL it back when the line moves to 3.5/4?
Damn, I ain't no spring chicken.
Ok, so the line is 3, It sure looks like it will go to 3.5 or maybe 4.
Now, IMO Balt will cover the 3 (I already bought yesterday at that #).
What do i do now?.......buy Cincy even though I don't feel they will cover (or even win the game for that matter)......and SELL it back when the line moves to 3.5/4?
The "lets find ourselves another middle in the NFL thread" for Thursday nite football
Seemed to work on Monday nite football, this pass Monday and most importantly was a very educational thread. Let's see what we can come up with predicting any line movement on tonite's game. Not trying to win the game but trying to BEAT THE CLOSING NUMBER and get a great bet down. That's really all we can do. The game will play itself out.
Remember line movement in the NFL takes alot of money and alot of time does not happen
Here is what it looks like right now:
Baltimore is -3 (-115)
and total is 41.5 (some 42's out there)
1st half somwewhere in the 1.5 to 2.5 range and total in the 21/21.5 range.
My thoughts: When Pinny first put this line(and it was only out there a few minutes) out I grabbed some -2.5 as I figured all it could do is go up into the 3's and even it if went down into the 2's those numbers are dead numbers so the reward out weighed the risk in this. -2.5 and coming back with +3 or even better +3.5 is a profitable side/middle and should be taken advantage of at all times (IMO) in the NFL. Not trying to sound like a know it all but more trying to show you how I think when I do this.
I knew I was going to dump most or all of my posistion on this bet come gameday as the public ususally loves to bet the more glamorus team in Cincinatti. Baltimore is a prime example of a good team that because of the style they play do not get as much respect as they probably should. 1 small trick I have learned is being in tune with the sport you are betting and thinking like how you think the public sees the game can go along way in getting good lines. Openers, though very risky, are a MUST to bet into if you are looking at a sport where line movement is not as common. Try to get numbers on the good side of a key number is my advice (i.e. -2.5, +3.5, -6.5, etc..) but be careful and try to put alot of thought in what you seen the most current week, that is the way I have noticed the public thinks.
Looking at todays numbers and using Pinny as a barometer of line movement, I am currently thinking that under 42 is the play for now and hoping the number drops and goes thru the 41 as weather(rain) maybe a factor I hear. Also think Baltimore backers know there best chance is low scoring game. 41 is a key totals number in NFL and if you can end up getting one at reduced juice (-105) than over 41 and under 42 is around breakeven and that hopefully worse case scenairio. I always try to think of what is the worse thing that could happen when trying to hit a middle and with Pinny at 41.5 under -110 (leaning lower) we have a little wiggle room with under 42 right now.
Still alot more to talk about. Lets figure this one out.
Seemed to work on Monday nite football, this pass Monday and most importantly was a very educational thread. Let's see what we can come up with predicting any line movement on tonite's game. Not trying to win the game but trying to BEAT THE CLOSING NUMBER and get a great bet down. That's really all we can do. The game will play itself out.
Remember line movement in the NFL takes alot of money and alot of time does not happen
Here is what it looks like right now:
Baltimore is -3 (-115)
and total is 41.5 (some 42's out there)
1st half somwewhere in the 1.5 to 2.5 range and total in the 21/21.5 range.
My thoughts: When Pinny first put this line(and it was only out there a few minutes) out I grabbed some -2.5 as I figured all it could do is go up into the 3's and even it if went down into the 2's those numbers are dead numbers so the reward out weighed the risk in this. -2.5 and coming back with +3 or even better +3.5 is a profitable side/middle and should be taken advantage of at all times (IMO) in the NFL. Not trying to sound like a know it all but more trying to show you how I think when I do this.
I knew I was going to dump most or all of my posistion on this bet come gameday as the public ususally loves to bet the more glamorus team in Cincinatti. Baltimore is a prime example of a good team that because of the style they play do not get as much respect as they probably should. 1 small trick I have learned is being in tune with the sport you are betting and thinking like how you think the public sees the game can go along way in getting good lines. Openers, though very risky, are a MUST to bet into if you are looking at a sport where line movement is not as common. Try to get numbers on the good side of a key number is my advice (i.e. -2.5, +3.5, -6.5, etc..) but be careful and try to put alot of thought in what you seen the most current week, that is the way I have noticed the public thinks.
Looking at todays numbers and using Pinny as a barometer of line movement, I am currently thinking that under 42 is the play for now and hoping the number drops and goes thru the 41 as weather(rain) maybe a factor I hear. Also think Baltimore backers know there best chance is low scoring game. 41 is a key totals number in NFL and if you can end up getting one at reduced juice (-105) than over 41 and under 42 is around breakeven and that hopefully worse case scenairio. I always try to think of what is the worse thing that could happen when trying to hit a middle and with Pinny at 41.5 under -110 (leaning lower) we have a little wiggle room with under 42 right now.
Still alot more to talk about. Lets figure this one out.
