Flat Betting : What is your stand?

austintx05 · Dec 1, 2006

I have always flat bet, in my short 2 years of wagering on sports. As many of you know, I am fairly new at this compared to the veterans, but the reason I have always flat bet is because the day you go 1-1, you still have the potential to be down money if the 1 loss you have was a 2+unit play vs the 1 unit winner. I also realize that there are certain pays that might warrant a multiple unit wager and have read some thoughts at other sites that are felt to be leaving money on the table.

So as a rookie to the sports betting world, I would like to hear your thoughts on this issue.

Thanks

ElJefe · Dec 1, 2006

My experience has been that flat betting is best overall. There are certainly times (1 out of 15 or more bets, etc.) that it might make sense to go up to 1.5 or 2 times the flat wager. But no more frequent than that and no more of a multiple than that. By mostly flat betting you keep your risk spread out. When you start putting 3, 4, 5 times your normal amount on a game then you open up youself to too much risk with one wager.

teazeman · Dec 1, 2006

write down the above post in your gambling guide as it's the best advise you'll likely ever receive on this subject.

royalfan · Dec 1, 2006

flat betting is completely idiotic for those that have a clue what they are doing.

buddyboy · Dec 1, 2006

for every guy here that tells you to flat bet, another will tell you to lay down more on bets you think have a better 'chance' of paying.

I'm on the flat bet side of the isle.

if you are gonna vary the size of your bets, then don't have 3 dozen sizes.

you have one size now, maybe tell yourself you have '2 betting accounts'

Regular and super size, track them both and see how you do.

Santo · Dec 1, 2006

If you can quantify your edge, you shouldn't be flat betting, if you can't, perhaps you should.

ensign_lee · Dec 1, 2006

The less I know of a sport, the more apt I am to flat wager in it.

billhill999 · Dec 1, 2006

El Jefe said:
My experience has been that flat betting is best overall. There are certainly times (1 out of 15 or more bets, etc.) that it might make sense to go up to 1.5 or 2 times the flat wager. But no more frequent than that and no more of a multiple than that. By mostly flat betting you keep your risk spread out. When you start putting 3, 4, 5 times your normal amount on a game then you open up youself to too much risk with one wager.

Been doing just that for years.
I always flat bet on the average 100 a game, when on a nice streak, and everything is going smooth, I'll pump my flats to 150, when losing, I'll put on the breaks, and take it down to 50 (or 80 dollars) a game, until things straighten out.

Beendoing that for 20 years, there's no wolves knocking on my door looking for late bills, my fiancee loves me, we eat well, etc. etc.

I'm not an action junky and I never sweat the bet.

CapNCash · Dec 1, 2006

If I am up 5 units for a weekend I have no problem throwing it all down. If I am down I usually scale back however.

Labeeb · Dec 1, 2006

Santo said:
If you can quantify your edge, you shouldn't be flat betting, if you can't, perhaps you should.

This is the key when one chooses to not flat bet. I do not flat bet, but just as Santo says, I can quantify the perceived edge. Based on the variance between my line and the line offered, wagers are placed. Where the variance is large, the size of the wager increases. Once the variance reaches a certain bottom level there is no play.

If you can quantify the perceived advantage, it's crazy not to tier your wagers. If you're going on "gut" and "feel", stick to flat betting until you can quantify it.

If you find that with tiered betting you are losing more, then you need to examine your methods of analyzing the game itself. It is certainly more volatile and your SD will be much higher, but the rewards justify it.

austintx05 · Dec 1, 2006

Thanks for all the replies.

MrJ · Dec 1, 2006

I might as well just start quoting you santo

Bet size based on the size of the edge and the probability of winning is mathematically the best way to go. This would require you being reasonably accurate at identifying the edge of each bet. However, most bettors are not good at this and and would be no worse off by flatbetting.

TTinCO · Dec 1, 2006

I never flat bet. My plays always vary based upon my perceived edge.

HuskerFan1 · Dec 1, 2006

well said labeeb and ttinco

Bluemyboy · Dec 1, 2006

to each his own... both ways clearly work for some.

Santo · Dec 1, 2006

MrJ: Did you get my email re: Aussie cellphone service?

BAGIANT · Dec 1, 2006

El Jefe said:
My experience has been that flat betting is best overall. There are certainly times (1 out of 15 or more bets, etc.) that it might make sense to go up to 1.5 or 2 times the flat wager. But no more frequent than that and no more of a multiple than that. By mostly flat betting you keep your risk spread out. When you start putting 3, 4, 5 times your normal amount on a game then you open up youself to too much risk with one wager.

Someone ought to tell that to Ace!

Antonioli · Dec 2, 2006

stuckinvegas said:
Someone ought to tell that to Ace!

and Dubs!

couple of weeks ago, Dubs was 50-40, but he was only up by 40 units (ridiculous to use him as an example i know...) but this dude's max bet is 25 units :suomi: