Something I noticed in NBA -lines move up just before tipoff on latest game of day

Iceman · Dec 3, 2006

Alot of games at Pinny (esp late games in NBA, I have noticied) there will be a dump on the favorite about 15 minutes or so before the game causing Pinny to "ovecorrect" a little and move number way up for just a few minutes. When I mean way up I mean a few cents and sometimes a half point. Sometimes the market follows. I know all about the Pinny lean and this is sort of it but doesn't the Pinny lean mean to bet at the other books? I generally make this play at Pinny and win alot more than I have lost with it.

I am a firm beleiever this comes from alot of bettors chasing their early day losses and betting the favorite on the daily late game. This happened last nite with the 10:35 hoops game and Milwaukee, who hovered around 7.5/8 all afternoon only to go up another half point right before gametime. I have made a killing with this and grabbing the extra half point on the late game by waiting. Hapens alot in Baseball also at Pinny I have noticied. Late steam comes in 15 minutes or so before tipoff and the BEST price of the day follows.

I know the old rule is to wait on dogs and bet favorites early but this hold true alot more on the last game of the day. I am sure most know this but just throwing it out there for the ones that don't and in the NBA it seems to be HUGE.

Journeyman · Dec 3, 2006

"I am a firm beleiever this comes from alot of bettors chasing their early day losses and betting the favorite on the daily late game"

I believe you are correct .

Iceman · Dec 3, 2006

happening again right now. Nothing spectacular but you can get Orlando (the dog) +2.5 at Pinny -109, where everyone else has +1.5. I got +3 on the opener yesterday but may take some more +2.5 as I bought back -1 earlier.

Fishhead · Dec 3, 2006

Just one of MANY factors sucessful scalpers realize.

To bad I'm a lazy ass tonight..........(while watching my OVER go severely down the drain).

Can't believe how bad SEA is looking.........PUKE.

Iceman · Dec 3, 2006

now +2.5 -105 at Pinny. I think it is time to pull the trigger.

prodigy · Dec 3, 2006

not only that but the teams that usually host these sunday night games also happen to be big public teams -- lakers, kings, suns.

quantumleap · Dec 3, 2006

Iceman said:
happening again right now. Nothing spectacular but you can get Orlando (the dog) +2.5 at Pinny -109, where everyone else has +1.5. I got +3 on the opener yesterday but may take some more +2.5 as I bought back -1 earlier.

I've just started looking at this the last couple weeks. If Pinnacle has +2.5 -106 and the rest of the books have +1.5 -110 or +2 -110, isn't Pinnacle making it easier to take the dog here? I would think that -1.5 -110 at another book would be the play.

But then again, I may confusing things.

quantumleap · Dec 3, 2006

prodigy said:
not only that but the teams that usually host these sunday night games also happen to be big public teams -- lakers, kings, suns.

Good point prodigy. That's a key factor in determining these bets.

Iceman · Dec 3, 2006

Fish,
What is the % of times your middles are the same $ on each side as compared to having a lean either way?

Iceman · Dec 3, 2006

quantumleap said:
I've just started looking at this the last couple weeks. If Pinnacle has +2.5 -106 and the rest of the books have +1.5 -110 or +2 -110, isn't Pinnacle making it easier to take the dog here? I would think that -1.5 -110 at another book would be the play.

But then again, I may confusing things.

agree some of the time (called the Pinny lean) but not in my above example when you are getting a dog on the last game of the nite on busy betting day(not sure if this matters). I think they(Pinny) are just getting dumped on from other books and trying to get some buy back and shoppers are getting a bargain. The consenus is -2 and has been -1.5 all day so this is just dumb money(IMO). I could be wrong but have noticied this quite a bit since the beggining of the year. Getting -105 on these bets with an extra half point really lowers your win pct needed to breakeven. I think this is the best way to beat Pinny. I would NOT advise this in the middle of the afternoon on game days where they are leaning but right before tipoffs of espicially late games.

quantumleap · Dec 3, 2006

Iceman said:
agree some of the time (called the Pinny lean) but not in my above example when you are getting a dog on the last game of the nite on busy betting day(not sure if this matters). I think they(Pinny) are just getting dumped on from other books and trying to get some buy back and shoppers are getting a bargain. The consenus is -2 and has been -1.5 all day so this is just dumb money(IMO). I could be wrong but have noticied this quite a bit since the beggining of the year. Getting -105 on these bets with an extra half point really lowers your win pct needed to breakeven. I think this is the best way to beat Pinny. I would NOT advise this in the middle of the afternoon on game days where they are leaning but right before tipoffs of espicially late games.

Yes! I get a response from Iceman!

uppy: (Just giving you a hard time.)

I see what you are saying. This is a special case where the Pinnacle lean doesn't hold true.

Thanks for bringing this up.

Fishhead · Dec 3, 2006

Iceman said:
Fish,
What is the % of times your middles are the same $ on each side as compared to having a lean either way?

Less than 10%

Iceman · Dec 3, 2006

Fishhead said:
Less than 10%

so you will lean enough to show some profit if the middle doesn't hit when your lean is wins( 90% of the time)? Just wanted to make sure as this NBA sides attempting to middle is driving me NUTS. Can't figure it out as it is a HUGE waste of time for me. Going to have to change my attention to focusing on another idea with the NBA. Sides just not violatale enough for me. Moving to plan B, something I think may be a little more profitable ( god knows it has to be). I have a real good feel for the NBA, the team and line movement so may gamble a little bit more.

Something I noticed in NBA -lines move up just before tipoff on latest game of day

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