The Monday nite football "guess the line movement" thread...

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Rx Wizard
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I know it is a little early but I can't wait no longer as I think the number will go up tomorrow. In trying to THINK like the public, who obviously can HEAVILY influence the line on the TV games. I am on Carolina -3 (-107) at Pinny. My sole intention is to buy back Philadelphia at +3.5 at reduced juice -105 for more, leaving me heavy on Philly. Getting both sides (hopefully) at reduce juice is a profitable play around the number 3 in the NFL. I think Philly is solid play as EVERYONE will be on Carolina and the home dog on MNF is always a great subset evey year. My call is for this line to go up, also nice to see the Greek and Cris the highest -3's (-115) out there, meaning if and when they go to -3.5, most books usually follow.

The total is 37.5 and if the public (who got burned doing this today) follows suit will bet the under on this cold crappy weather but it is too difficult to pull the trigger on the under in MNF. I may still do it tommorow sometime than hope for some 36.5 as a buy back.

I say grab Carolina now as the beaten down public bettors need a "get back to even" game after a bad day of dogs covered and will move this number way up past the 3 setting up a decent middle.
 

Buried Alive after week 2 of the NFL
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Public won tonight on Seattle, Im leaning towards Philly tomorrow...
 

Stumblin' around, drunk on burgundy wine.
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I rarely bet the on the Eagles, but i'm stepping out big on them tomorrow.

They win outright.

Hope we can get 3.5 tomorrow b/c i've already got them on the money line parlayed with the seahawk ml. Getting better than 6-1.
 

Oh boy!
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WharfRat said:
I rarely bet the on the Eagles, but i'm stepping out big on them tomorrow.

They win outright.

Hope we can get 3.5 tomorrow b/c i've already got them on the money line parlayed with the seahawk ml. Getting better than 6-1.

The world is on Carolina so I'll be betting on Philly. ML is at +149 at Pinnacle. I don't know if I'll bet ML or spread though.

I don't know if you can expect any line movement as it's been at 3 all week. If you can find a +3.5, my hat is off to you.
 

Rx Wizard
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PyRo CaPPer said:
Public won tonight on Seattle, Im leaning towards Philly tomorrow...

not sure if public had Seattle tonite, I would say majority was on Seattle but I can't pull up info at Wagerline. The line moved UP all day and most bettors like to bet small home favs on TV games like tonites.
 

Rx Wizard
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quantumleap said:
The world is on Carolina so I'll be betting on Philly. ML is at +149 at Pinnacle. I don't know if I'll bet ML or spread though.

I don't know if you can expect any line movement as it's been at 3 all week. If you can find a +3.5, my hat is off to you.

+3.5 is coming for the EXACT reason you said because everyone will be on Carolina, the UGLY :monsters- road favorite.
 

VTEC
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something i've notice on sunday night and monday night games.

When the outcome of Sunday Night's is..
Dog and over
Monday night's game turnout to be..
Favor and under

anyone noticed this ????
 
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vtec said:
something i've notice on sunday night and monday night games.

When the outcome of Sunday Night's is..
Dog and over
Monday night's game turnout to be..
Favor and under

anyone noticed this ????

Yes, I have! Reverse of the previous Sunday night vs. Monday night trend when MNF was the 'big game'
 

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ANY THOUGHTS on where were going from here.......

MATCHBOOK EXCHANGE CURRENTLY

CAR -3 -106
PHIL +3 +105
 

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Iceman said:
I know it is a little early but I can't wait no longer as I think the number will go up tomorrow. In trying to THINK like the public, who obviously can HEAVILY influence the line on the TV games. I am on Carolina -3 (-107) at Pinny. My sole intention is to buy back Philadelphia at +3.5 at reduced juice -105 for more, leaving me heavy on Philly. Getting both sides (hopefully) at reduce juice is a profitable play around the number 3 in the NFL. I think Philly is solid play as EVERYONE will be on Carolina and the home dog on MNF is always a great subset evey year. My call is for this line to go up, also nice to see the Greek and Cris the highest -3's (-115) out there, meaning if and when they go to -3.5, most books usually follow.

The total is 37.5 and if the public (who got burned doing this today) follows suit will bet the under on this cold crappy weather but it is too difficult to pull the trigger on the under in MNF. I may still do it tommorow sometime than hope for some 36.5 as a buy back.

I say grab Carolina now as the beaten down public bettors need a "get back to even" game after a bad day of dogs covered and will move this number way up past the 3 setting up a decent middle.

I like your chances/thinking ICEMAN.

Best wishes,
-fh-
 

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Following in ICE's steps........just unloaded 30,000 on everything I could find at -3 -108 or LESS.
 

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Fishhead said:
Following in ICE's steps........just unloaded 30,000 on everything I could find at -3 -108 or LESS.

SIA already at -3 -130!

Wagerline showing close to 75% on the CAR side also.
 

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Fishhead said:
ANY THOUGHTS on where were going from here.......

MATCHBOOK EXCHANGE CURRENTLY

CAR -3 -106
PHIL +3 +105


NOW.........

CAR -3 -111
PHIL +3 +110
 

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Wow, 30k is some big money. I thought I was a big shot for winning $75 on the seattle ml last night. :suomi:
 

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You just unloaded 30,000? Did I read that right? And then you posted about it on TheRX? :missingte
 

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levistep said:
Wow, 30k is some big money. I thought I was a big shot for winning $75 on the seattle ml last night. :suomi:


Thats $75 more than I won on them.

Good job and congrats.
 

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