Gyne,
Your not going to beat the Books long Term following a system that plays into their Figures without a reason. As in Basketball where there is a lot of Games in a Season I think its important to limit the vig you pay as much as possible, either your plays successful or you should go back to the drawing board. Books love Punters that buy Points because that is a way they can eat into a good system, if you cant win with Plus vig you are maybe not on thin ice but certainly in for grief in a long Season. :drink:
Your not going to beat the Books long Term following a system that plays into their Figures without a reason. As in Basketball where there is a lot of Games in a Season I think its important to limit the vig you pay as much as possible, either your plays successful or you should go back to the drawing board. Books love Punters that buy Points because that is a way they can eat into a good system, if you cant win with Plus vig you are maybe not on thin ice but certainly in for grief in a long Season. :drink:
Gyne....I think as I have already started looking. I like betting on the underdogs and think that they way to go is take underdogs. I'm going to take underdogs and ride them the whole way but not make to many plays each day as you said. Last year the Royal's if I'm not mistaken ended up almost positive even with the record they had. I think a few dogs a day and pick and choose your spots is the best way to go....I'll see how it goes next season. We should also start our baseball discussion. Good Luck
CapNWatch
CapNWatch
I simply don't get it?
Don't get stuck with Dogs. The main reason everyone is liking this dog-strategy is that in 95% of the games where there is one sided risk, it's on the favorite. This is what the compilers are paid to know and therefor the odds on the favorite is slightly lower than the actual estimation would give, as they know the risk comes from Joe Public who does not count the actual value.
Now, this means value on dogs might be easier to spot, as it's more common than value on favs. The only problem is that there is surely value to be found on the fav in many cases, why skip these? Never limit yourself with that kind of rules.
Second thing. Now, if you do not limit yourself with only dogs, why limit yourself taking ONLY two bets each day. You do not need to be a genuis to figure that a day you have three good value bets, you take three and the day you only find one, you only take one.
Don't get stuck with Dogs. The main reason everyone is liking this dog-strategy is that in 95% of the games where there is one sided risk, it's on the favorite. This is what the compilers are paid to know and therefor the odds on the favorite is slightly lower than the actual estimation would give, as they know the risk comes from Joe Public who does not count the actual value.
Now, this means value on dogs might be easier to spot, as it's more common than value on favs. The only problem is that there is surely value to be found on the fav in many cases, why skip these? Never limit yourself with that kind of rules.
Second thing. Now, if you do not limit yourself with only dogs, why limit yourself taking ONLY two bets each day. You do not need to be a genuis to figure that a day you have three good value bets, you take three and the day you only find one, you only take one.
Gyno... here's my 2 cents...
It sounds hokey, so take it for what it's worth...
I was tracking results of Wagerline opinion last year in Baseball...
2 angles i looked at...
Public 75%+ on a Home Fav of -170 or heavier.... Follow the public
Public 63-67% on a Road Fav of -170 or less.... Fade the public (play home dog)
(63-67 were picked arbitrarily before the season started)
Both angles produced +22 units each on the year for a profit of +44...
The Fade (play the dog) angle had more plays as the year went on, but if you're looking to quit at the All-star break, you may consider at least tracking it... The system peaked at +64 units in Mid-June, and both angles were far more productive early in the season as opposed to later on.
It sounds hokey, so take it for what it's worth...
I was tracking results of Wagerline opinion last year in Baseball...
2 angles i looked at...
Public 75%+ on a Home Fav of -170 or heavier.... Follow the public
Public 63-67% on a Road Fav of -170 or less.... Fade the public (play home dog)
(63-67 were picked arbitrarily before the season started)
Both angles produced +22 units each on the year for a profit of +44...
The Fade (play the dog) angle had more plays as the year went on, but if you're looking to quit at the All-star break, you may consider at least tracking it... The system peaked at +64 units in Mid-June, and both angles were far more productive early in the season as opposed to later on.
gynecologist said:
Sorry Gyno... sort of forgot about this thread....
Beleive it or not, i just used Wagerline!
Everyone always says it's a useless site because no one actually puts money on anything.. but i think in a lot of instances, putting money on a game clouds someones judgement and interferes with their instincts...
I was tracking my plays in hockey early this year on another forum and i had my plays seperated from my opinions.. games where i didnt actually put money on...
my plays were hitting around 50% but my leans were hitting above 65%.. mostly dogs too...
the whole point is that there is SOME merit in the numbers you find on Wagerline...
I figured the results would fizzle out over a while but they remained steady throughout... dogs faded a bit towards playoff time, but still worth looking at...
the only down side is you have to be around close to game time to setup the plays..
my numbers were totally arbitrary (fading 63-67%) and following 75+% on big favs..
Hi. Noticed your comment about quiting atthe allstar break. The odds on dogs actually go up after. Where you might see 2-1 early you may see 2.5 or 3-1 after as the public wants the strong pitchers and the perception that the lousy teams have given up leads to bigger lines.
The Natsthis year will have no pitching and have lost there best hitter. this is one dog you may not want to bet against. I am thinking of betting the alternative -1.5 line against all season they look to be pathetic 45-107 is realistic. there are better dogs.
I also think the interleague play skews some of the stats. i would think dogs did better in there own divisions as opposed to interleague where the a.l. just ateup the n.l. dont think you can be a dog better in those times. best of luck i am a strong whip lay the odds player so it will be interesting to see how it goes. good luck heart222
The Natsthis year will have no pitching and have lost there best hitter. this is one dog you may not want to bet against. I am thinking of betting the alternative -1.5 line against all season they look to be pathetic 45-107 is realistic. there are better dogs.
I also think the interleague play skews some of the stats. i would think dogs did better in there own divisions as opposed to interleague where the a.l. just ateup the n.l. dont think you can be a dog better in those times. best of luck i am a strong whip lay the odds player so it will be interesting to see how it goes. good luck heart222
FairWarning said:
This is the best strategy for betting baseball. Baseball is the streakiest sport of them all. Whole batting orders get hot or go into a slump. If there is a streak of 3 going one way or the other you look at the 4th game and ask yourself that given the starting pitchers and what ever you know about the other time will the streak go to 4? If the answer is yes you play accordingly and you look at it again the next day until the streak is broken. When it is you look around for another 3 game streak. Really cuts down on handicapping and from time to time during a long season you can ride a team and have some nice winning streaks. Same can be said for playing totals. You still have to have a working knowledge of pitchers, bullpens and ball parks. There are also some teams that defy handicapping. I put a few on my "do not" play list (Yankees) and that further cuts down on handicapping work.
The strategy above is good all season but in the second half of the season the idea is to figure out which teams are going to make a run for the playoffs and which teams that were contenders in the first half are going to fade. There are always teams every year that fit into either catagory. If you identify them (guess right) before the books figure it out you can pound a few teams well into September. By then it will be time to start losing your money on football games again.
I love baseball...thank god it is almost here.
The question comes up if betting dogs are you better of when they face a number 3 or 4 pitcher as opposedto a number 1- or 2 starter. one gets less odds on the 3-4 but I think have a better chance of winning then when they face a 1 or 2, especially a one. balt played toronto o.lk. last year but I think Holliday just ate them up if memory serves me right. thats what i am talking about. gl heart222
Hey Gyno here's my 2 cents - I have been looking for a chase system that features dog's this one seems pretty good.....
-Past Underdog Post
How to win big $$ in baseball winning only 33% of the time!
Gentlemen,
Baseball is one of the easiest sports to make money at if you quit chasing away your money playing favourites and start playing dogs...this system has made me over 6-digits the last two years and will work if you follow my lead..........I will explain how this works and will be somewhat lengthy but worth the reading.
First, please realize that there is way too much emphasis put on starting pitchers in a game...why???...Simple, think about how many games are won in the 8th and 9th innings when the starters are no longer around...enough said!
Second, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any winning team in the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very best teams hardly ever win more that 67% of their games...A team that wins 100 games in a season still loses 62! (38%)
Third, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any of the worst teams for the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very worst teams win at least 55 games a year! (34%)
Yes, there are a few exceptions to the above but overall have stood the test of time!
In other words, even the very best teams average losing 1 in every three games and even the very worst teams average winning 1 in every 3 games. This will be important later on.
What does all this mean underdog??? I will tell you now!
I call this feature Baseball the Underdog Way!
What I generally look for (with a multitude of variations) is a generally weaker team playing on the road at a .500 or stronger opponent. What this guarantees me is, that my weaker team will be an underdog for all games in the series. I AM COUNTING ON MY WEAKER TEAM TO WIN AT LEAST 1 OF THE GAMES IN THE SERIES. A series is usually 3 games but sometimes can be 4. Once your team wins, you must stop and wait for the next series to begin!
Here is an example of a series:
Tampa Bay @ Ny Yankees
Game 1 NYY -200 Tampa +180
Game 2 NYY -180 Tampa +160
Game 3 NYY -230 Tampa +190
You may start with any bankroll that you wish...I personally will start with $7000. Divide your starting bankroll by 7 (this example $1000). The reason that you divide by 7 is that if you lose game 1, you double game 2 and if that loses, then you double game 2 amount for game 3.
If you win the first game, stop--you made $1800
If you lose game one, double your bet for game 2 ($2000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $2200 ($3200 win for game 2 - game 1 loss of $1000).
If you lose game two, double the amount from game 2 ($4000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $4200 ($7200 win for game 3 - game 1 and 2 loss of $3000)
If you lose, sorry to you and me............I have done this for the past 3 years for a total of 162 series---I have won 160 times and got swept all three games twice...........that is some serious winnings.
I use a lot of various factors when choosing the series that I will play.... some of those are as follows:
1) don’t play against a team on a winning streak of 3 or more games.
2) Don't play on a team that is on a losing streak of 3 or more.
3) Look at a teams road performance against opponent @ opponents stadium.........some teams have remarkably good or bad history in certain ballparks...I have found a lot of gems this way.
4) Is weather going to be a factor?? ---Yes, the weather. I don't worry about 1st game weather only subsequent weather days.... because if one game gets cancelled in your series, it may not be made up right away...I don’t worry about game one, because if that game gets cancelled, then I cancel the series play and wait for next.
5) In general, the team I am playing on, must be at least 4-6 in their last 10 games played and be at least a .400 team on the road or at least a .400 team versus opponent.
6) In general, the team I am playing against must be no better than 6-4 in their last 10 games played.
7) The team I am playing on, must have at least a .400 winning % versus the opponent over the last 3 years.
8) As I stated before, these are general guidelines that I use but will very depending on other criteria that may be relevant.
As a favour to all the guys in this forum, I will be posting these series plays every time I am playing one...if you follow my lead, you will make a profit .........again, I am 160-2 over the last 3 years doing this and have gobbled up plenty of profit to show for it!
Make sure that when you bet on these games, that you use a sports book that allows you to play "action goes" this simply means that if the game is played, you have it...a lot of books use starting pitchers only. So if there is a late pitching change, you have a "no action" wager.
NOW GO WIN SOME MONEY!!<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>
<o></o>
Let me know your thoughts guys -
-Past Underdog Post
How to win big $$ in baseball winning only 33% of the time!
Gentlemen,
Baseball is one of the easiest sports to make money at if you quit chasing away your money playing favourites and start playing dogs...this system has made me over 6-digits the last two years and will work if you follow my lead..........I will explain how this works and will be somewhat lengthy but worth the reading.
First, please realize that there is way too much emphasis put on starting pitchers in a game...why???...Simple, think about how many games are won in the 8th and 9th innings when the starters are no longer around...enough said!
Second, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any winning team in the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very best teams hardly ever win more that 67% of their games...A team that wins 100 games in a season still loses 62! (38%)
Third, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any of the worst teams for the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very worst teams win at least 55 games a year! (34%)
Yes, there are a few exceptions to the above but overall have stood the test of time!
In other words, even the very best teams average losing 1 in every three games and even the very worst teams average winning 1 in every 3 games. This will be important later on.
What does all this mean underdog??? I will tell you now!
I call this feature Baseball the Underdog Way!
What I generally look for (with a multitude of variations) is a generally weaker team playing on the road at a .500 or stronger opponent. What this guarantees me is, that my weaker team will be an underdog for all games in the series. I AM COUNTING ON MY WEAKER TEAM TO WIN AT LEAST 1 OF THE GAMES IN THE SERIES. A series is usually 3 games but sometimes can be 4. Once your team wins, you must stop and wait for the next series to begin!
Here is an example of a series:
Tampa Bay @ Ny Yankees
Game 1 NYY -200 Tampa +180
Game 2 NYY -180 Tampa +160
Game 3 NYY -230 Tampa +190
You may start with any bankroll that you wish...I personally will start with $7000. Divide your starting bankroll by 7 (this example $1000). The reason that you divide by 7 is that if you lose game 1, you double game 2 and if that loses, then you double game 2 amount for game 3.
If you win the first game, stop--you made $1800
If you lose game one, double your bet for game 2 ($2000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $2200 ($3200 win for game 2 - game 1 loss of $1000).
If you lose game two, double the amount from game 2 ($4000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $4200 ($7200 win for game 3 - game 1 and 2 loss of $3000)
If you lose, sorry to you and me............I have done this for the past 3 years for a total of 162 series---I have won 160 times and got swept all three games twice...........that is some serious winnings.
I use a lot of various factors when choosing the series that I will play.... some of those are as follows:
1) don’t play against a team on a winning streak of 3 or more games.
2) Don't play on a team that is on a losing streak of 3 or more.
3) Look at a teams road performance against opponent @ opponents stadium.........some teams have remarkably good or bad history in certain ballparks...I have found a lot of gems this way.
4) Is weather going to be a factor?? ---Yes, the weather. I don't worry about 1st game weather only subsequent weather days.... because if one game gets cancelled in your series, it may not be made up right away...I don’t worry about game one, because if that game gets cancelled, then I cancel the series play and wait for next.
5) In general, the team I am playing on, must be at least 4-6 in their last 10 games played and be at least a .400 team on the road or at least a .400 team versus opponent.
6) In general, the team I am playing against must be no better than 6-4 in their last 10 games played.
7) The team I am playing on, must have at least a .400 winning % versus the opponent over the last 3 years.
8) As I stated before, these are general guidelines that I use but will very depending on other criteria that may be relevant.
As a favour to all the guys in this forum, I will be posting these series plays every time I am playing one...if you follow my lead, you will make a profit .........again, I am 160-2 over the last 3 years doing this and have gobbled up plenty of profit to show for it!
Make sure that when you bet on these games, that you use a sports book that allows you to play "action goes" this simply means that if the game is played, you have it...a lot of books use starting pitchers only. So if there is a late pitching change, you have a "no action" wager.
NOW GO WIN SOME MONEY!!<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
></o>Let me know your thoughts guys -
