Just a word to the wise for those looking at -10 and greater Home Favorites

aiverson · Dec 14, 2006

Home Favorites of 10 or more from 2003-2006 (almost 4 full seasons ) have fared ATS >>>

33-50-4....37.93%......
74-13..SU....85.06%....
36 Over ...49 Under

**********************************************
on week 15 only .....>>>

1-4 ATS .....
5-0 SU

****************************************

weeks 14-17 ..>>>>>>

8-15-2....32 % ......
21-4 SU...84%.....
9 over ...15 under

For everyone who listens to Ace and thinks "Spreads Don't Matter". I've heard that even when talking about 10+ point spreads.

That is generally good advice, but it depends on what the spread is. Sure on a 2 or 3 point game, but a 10 or greater point spread? As you can see, it matters a lot when the spread is that high.

Even in December, when you have teams headed to the playoffs playing AT HOME against teams who are well out of the mix and in turmoil, those favs only are covering at a 32% clip.

So while I do like a couple of the large favs this week, just be cautious as always w/ your hard earned money.

Good luck

ACE-ACE · Dec 14, 2006

This Year The Points Only Matter In 33 Games Out Of 208 16%

What You Say Is True (more Points Could Matter More)

Have Not Keep Track Of Games That Are Over 9 Point

Wish Someone Would Break It Down :103631605

Aa

dvs2k · Dec 14, 2006

Dang AI, I hope you get traded to my Seattle Sonics. That was some good info... you aren't saying BET SFO, but I was going to anyway >

GL brother!

Fishhead · Dec 14, 2006

Taking DOUBLE DIGIT DOGS over the past 30 YEARS in the NFL will have made one a nice profit.

aiverson · Dec 14, 2006

ACE-ACE said:
This Year The Points Only Matter In 33 Games Out Of 208 16%

What You Say Is True (more Points Could Matter More)

Have Not Keep Track Of Games That Are Over 9 Point

Wish Someone Would Break It Down

Aa

Ace, I can tell you when points DON'T usually matter:

Last 10 years ( 1996 - 2006 ) though week 8 2006

Home Dogs < 3 ( 1-2.5 ) went 117-96 ATS ...54.93% ...& 115-98 SU...53.99%

Of these 213 games played where the Home Dog was receiving less than 3 points
a total of 10 games ( 4.7 % ) resulted in a score where the visitor won by 3 points .

So what are the lessons from this?

If you like a home dog + 2.5 or below, don't take the points, take the ML, and never buy to 3.

The reason is you have about the same % chance of covering the spread (55%) as you do in having the dog win straight up (54%).

This week we have 2 teams that fall into those conditions:

Car fits it to a T, being the home underdog by 2.5 points. Arizona also is home and +1.

sdf · Dec 14, 2006

aiverson said:
Home Favorites of 10 or more from 2003-2006 (almost 4 full seasons ) have fared ATS >>>

33-50-4....37.93%......
74-13..SU....85.06%....
36 Over ...49 Under

**********************************************
on week 15 only .....>>>

1-4 ATS .....
5-0 SU

****************************************

weeks 14-17 ..>>>>>>

8-15-2....32 % ......
21-4 SU...84%.....
9 over ...15 under

my numbers are different ATS

favorits > 9.5 points

season 2003-present
SU: 77-13-0 (12.2)
ATS: 40-48-2 (0.2) avg line: -12.0
O/U: 37-49-4 (-1.4) avg total: 41.4

week14-17 season 2003-present
SU: 22-4-0 (11.3)
ATS: 12-13-1 (-1.0) avg line: -12.3
O/U: 11-13-2 (0.2) avg total: 40.5

week=15, season 2003-2005
SU: 5-0-0 (10.0)
ATS: 2-3-0 (-2.6) avg line: -12.6
O/U: 1-3-1 (-9.2) avg total: 41.6

Diothegreat · Dec 14, 2006

I know if you are taking a dog on a monday night game , there is a lot more value in just taking the money rather than the points

sportsnut · Dec 14, 2006

fishhead,you taking sf tonight????

SubwaySam · Dec 14, 2006

sdf said:
my numbers are different ATS

favorits > 9.5 points

season 2003-present
SU: 77-13-0 (12.2)
ATS: 40-48-2 (0.2) avg line: -12.0
O/U: 37-49-4 (-1.4) avg total: 41.4

week14-17 season 2003-present
SU: 22-4-0 (11.3)
ATS: 12-13-1 (-1.0) avg line: -12.3
O/U: 11-13-2 (0.2) avg total: 40.5

week=15, season 2003-2005
SU: 5-0-0 (10.0)
ATS: 2-3-0 (-2.6) avg line: -12.6
O/U: 1-3-1 (-9.2) avg total: 41.6

Good stuff. Now what if you exclude favorites of 14 or more? From my experience, that's where the dogs tend to shine ATS, as opposed to lines of 10-13.5.

aiverson · Dec 14, 2006

sdf said:
my numbers are different ATS

favorits > 9.5 points

season 2003-present
SU: 77-13-0 (12.2)
ATS: 40-48-2 (0.2) avg line: -12.0
O/U: 37-49-4 (-1.4) avg total: 41.4

week14-17 season 2003-present
SU: 22-4-0 (11.3)
ATS: 12-13-1 (-1.0) avg line: -12.3
O/U: 11-13-2 (0.2) avg total: 40.5

week=15, season 2003-2005
SU: 5-0-0 (10.0)
ATS: 2-3-0 (-2.6) avg line: -12.6
O/U: 1-3-1 (-9.2) avg total: 41.6

Where did you get your #s from?

sdf · Dec 14, 2006

aiverson said:
Where did you get your #s from?

sportsdatabase

sdf · Dec 14, 2006

SubwaySam said:
Good stuff. Now what if you exclude favorites of 14 or more? From my experience, that's where the dogs tend to shine ATS, as opposed to lines of 10-13.5.

favorits > -9.5 points < -14

season 2003-present
SU: 65-13-0 (11.5)
ATS: 35-42-1 (0.1) avg line: -11.4
O/U: 32-43-3 (-1.0) avg total: 41.3

3-10 ATS run right now

week14-17 season 2003-present
SU: 15-4-0 (9.4)
ATS: 9-10-0 (-1.9) avg line: -11.3
O/U: 8-10-1 (0.4) avg total: 40.4

week=15, season 2003-2005
SU: 3-0-0 (7.0)
ATS: 1-2-0 (-4.0) avg line: -11.0
O/U: 0-2-1 (-14.5) avg total: 41.5

aiverson · Dec 14, 2006

Thanks sdf - they were off and I am glad you corrected it. Where do you find the avg line for those games? Do you have to type in a different query?

SubwaySam · Dec 14, 2006

sdf said:
favorits > -9.5 points < -14

season 2003-present
SU: 65-13-0 (11.5)
ATS: 35-42-1 (0.1) avg line: -11.4
O/U: 32-43-3 (-1.0) avg total: 41.3

3-10 ATS run right now

week14-17 season 2003-present
SU: 15-4-0 (9.4)
ATS: 9-10-0 (-1.9) avg line: -11.3
O/U: 8-10-1 (0.4) avg total: 40.4

week=15, season 2003-2005
SU: 3-0-0 (7.0)
ATS: 1-2-0 (-4.0) avg line: -11.0
O/U: 0-2-1 (-14.5) avg total: 41.5

Thanks, sdf. So it looks like 5-6-1 for favs of 14 or more in your sample...

sdf · Dec 14, 2006

avg line comes with the database query. i didnt have to do anything special.

MikRetSam · Dec 14, 2006

:monsters- ITS ONLY LOGICAL............ the higher the spread the more it matters........ ddddddduuuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhhh

duckhunter · Dec 14, 2006

i never spot more than 6 pts in the nfl, regardless of who is playing, gl

Fishhead · Dec 14, 2006

sports nut said:
fishhead,you taking sf tonight????

No, I took the UNDER 41 very early this morning for a huge chunk of change.

aiverson · Dec 14, 2006

sdf said:
avg line comes with the database query. i didnt have to do anything special.

I don't see it w/ the query I typed:

http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/query?text=site%3Dhome+and+line%3E-14+and+line%3C-9.5+and+season%3E%3D2003+and+week%3E13

Any help? Also, do these guys use closing lines or where do they get their lines from? Thanks.

Salsantorre · Jul 2, 2019

Be careful

Just a word to the wise for those looking at -10 and greater Home Favorites

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