It seems twice a Year for the last at least Four Years I've posted a Thread on that Great pie in the Sky, the Public play, that it falls on deaf Ears everytime shows how inexperienced and naive People are. For some reason Posters are drawn to nonsense, mostly old Bookmaking myths rather than looking logically at the markets and following the basics. Log on to any thread that mentions the Public and its like looking at the start of a Draught's Game, all the Blacks up one end and the White's the other. All the sharps are on one side, the squares on the other and of course heaven help if your on the public side of things where no smart money is.
The posts constantly profess to know the public side ( normally the opposite of the Poster) without a glimmer of any explaination as to why this is so. The truth is most wouldnt have a clue how to price up the toss of a Coin not alone know where a line is going. Bookmakers must have stability and over the Years any ways of throwing the Punters into Chaos is advantageous, thats why they invented the steamers, the knock outs, the reverse plung. When it comes to Sports Betting which is essentially betting on Two Flies, there is even less room for the Books so the Propaganda is even more important, Simon Noble telling everyone where the live cash is going, telling you how smart it is to buy hooks, how the sharps catch them out all the time, how they worry about Scalpers and Middlers, all bollocks to confuse you and take you away from the basics of who will win A or B.
Yes there is merit in knowing the true line and where it may end up and what is the best price but not at the expense of being dictated what you bet by unseen forces which are wildly inaccurate. Going back to my old Days in Bookmaking, there was Two types of Punter that used to warm the cockles of our hearts, the Guesser who could be swayed by the least bit of smart talk and the geezer with the new system that he thinks has never been tried before. Not that systems are bad, just the get rich quick ones, there's nothing wrong in systems that filter unwanted clutter or highlight a profitable area but solid ground work has to be done first.
So once again make your selections on good evidence, learn to approximate the odds, get the best spread and price. If it isnt working for you then keep going back to the drawing board, not look for the easy out, bet against the Public play. No doubt some Joker will chime in how he makes the Game pay after 5 minutes of study or has made a fortune betting against Joe for Years but like everything on here, its hard to prove them wrong without keeping strict figures. Remember The Books dont know who's going to win and can only pre-empt where they think the money will come from and like Thursday Night they can get it very wrong. :drink:
The posts constantly profess to know the public side ( normally the opposite of the Poster) without a glimmer of any explaination as to why this is so. The truth is most wouldnt have a clue how to price up the toss of a Coin not alone know where a line is going. Bookmakers must have stability and over the Years any ways of throwing the Punters into Chaos is advantageous, thats why they invented the steamers, the knock outs, the reverse plung. When it comes to Sports Betting which is essentially betting on Two Flies, there is even less room for the Books so the Propaganda is even more important, Simon Noble telling everyone where the live cash is going, telling you how smart it is to buy hooks, how the sharps catch them out all the time, how they worry about Scalpers and Middlers, all bollocks to confuse you and take you away from the basics of who will win A or B.
Yes there is merit in knowing the true line and where it may end up and what is the best price but not at the expense of being dictated what you bet by unseen forces which are wildly inaccurate. Going back to my old Days in Bookmaking, there was Two types of Punter that used to warm the cockles of our hearts, the Guesser who could be swayed by the least bit of smart talk and the geezer with the new system that he thinks has never been tried before. Not that systems are bad, just the get rich quick ones, there's nothing wrong in systems that filter unwanted clutter or highlight a profitable area but solid ground work has to be done first.
So once again make your selections on good evidence, learn to approximate the odds, get the best spread and price. If it isnt working for you then keep going back to the drawing board, not look for the easy out, bet against the Public play. No doubt some Joker will chime in how he makes the Game pay after 5 minutes of study or has made a fortune betting against Joe for Years but like everything on here, its hard to prove them wrong without keeping strict figures. Remember The Books dont know who's going to win and can only pre-empt where they think the money will come from and like Thursday Night they can get it very wrong. :drink:
