How important is instinct in handicapping?

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I believe it's major.

Sometimes you just feel it in your bones.. There is this feeling I get when I really love a play can't really explain, it doesn't come very often either..

Anyone else have this? Any thoughts on this subject?
 

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Yeah, you have to have a gut feel (similar to instinct) to help you. No doubt in my mind. The better knowledge you have of the teams and the sport and it helps that instinct. I see supposed great cappers missing this and it hurts them. Good point here.

Also this is possibly against the statistical cappers a little bit. They always point at the numbers which tell a lot...but not the entire story at all. Some stats guys only utilize stats.


TB
 

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just a little bit, like every 5 out of 100 games (5%)...i'll get a gut instinct and it will be a very small play...

but my belief is basically gut instincts dont have a big place in the gambling world

your gut instinct could be the result of your environment, current mental state, emotions, etc that you have no control over, and many times your gut instinct can lead you in the wrong direction

i'd say establishing and consistently following/executing your winning approach in your handicapping is the most important thing, and if that falls in line with your gut instinct, even better
 

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The more experienced you are, the more important your "instinct" becomes (and vise versa). It's just your subconsious using a collection of your experience to steer you in what it thinks is the right direction.
 
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I would say my instinct helps out a lot more than it hurts. With me instinct doesn't necessarily make me pick a side, it makes me put more on the side I liked anyway.

The majority of my 5 unit plays have that instinct feeling.. A feeling in your bones that just tell you this bet will probably win..
 

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mine's the opposite...let's me avoid plays...such as this past week-end...ie...n.o/was. or 49er/seahawk fiasco's...
 

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gynecologist said:
I would say my instinct helps out a lot more than it hurts. With me instinct doesn't necessarily make me pick a side, it makes me put more on the side I liked anyway.

The majority of my 5 unit plays have that instinct feeling.. A feeling in your bones that just tell you this bet will probably win..

Have to agree. Also, instinct is developed with experience. Basically, isn't this endeavor accumulating data and deciphering which is pertinent and to what degree--the degree part is personal preference or"instinct" .02
 

"It's great to be alive and ahead by seven" Mort o
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After 38 years, Very Important! :103631605 :toast: LT
 

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I use gut first to determine which games I will consider playing...
 

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sammy the sage said:
mine's the opposite...let's me avoid plays...such as this past week-end...ie...n.o/was. or 49er/seahawk fiasco's...

Sammy's spot on, sadly it doesnt always work, its like a QB throwing into double coverage, He knows he's on thin is but still throws the ball. Just like me in NBA last night. :drink:
 

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If I used it 100% of time would be much better off. I think its a catch 22 in that diseased players have the best instinct.
 

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i guess i mis-read or misinterpreted this

if we are calling instinct knowledge and experience, it obviously plays a big role

but i was understanding instinct and "i fell it in my bones" as i just have a feeling it is going to happen, the stars are aligned, and i just feel it
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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I Agree w/pags

Also the "instinct" we feel is surely improved by specific tm knowledge. In my case the Goofers or Vikes. Quite often my feel for these 2 translates to a $$$ win. You can never go wrong listening to Coach, VV, or pags!!
 

ball dont lie
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basic gut instinct comes from the subconscience and its almost like having psychic abilities to a point. its importantance is measured by if you listen by carrying it out and executing or finding ways to not accept it.
 

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Boxslayer said:
just a little bit, like every 5 out of 100 games (5%)...i'll get a gut instinct and it will be a very small play...

but my belief is basically gut instincts dont have a big place in the gambling world

your gut instinct could be the result of your environment, current mental state, emotions, etc that you have no control over, and many times your gut instinct can lead you in the wrong direction

i'd say establishing and consistently following/executing your winning approach in your handicapping is the most important thing, and if that falls in line with your gut instinct, even better

i agree that gut instincts should not play a big part and I think it hurts you as a handicapper (which i am not one). Unless you are a capper and your INSTINCTS say, hey.. we've been down this road in a similar situation--you know it's gonna be this. Then that's probably good.

As far as me, whenever I have an instinct, it's fade time... but my instinct just says "you are the smartest guy on the planet, go play OAKLAND -32 vs SDG, they are a 32 point chalk for a reason here"... or something similar.

this was proven when i took ARI this week, cuz i figured their defense would hold up and their passing would connect opposite of Champ. had my best week in a while, yet all my plays were parlayed with that damn arizona team.
 

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gynecologist said:
I believe it's major.

I 100 % agree.
I don't know how many times I've seen an opening number and said to myself, "I like this line, I'm pounding Detroit (or whatever team)"
only to overthink everything to the point where you talk yourself out of it, only to find out Detroit after all not only covered but outright won.
 
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Instinct is the bulk of my betting. I am not a big trend player, I don't think they mean much. The only time I look for stats and such is in the beginning of the college football season. You need a few games under you belt to start developing instincts.

Nice post!
 

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