How to get out of a boneheaded leading mistakes?

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I made a boneheaded play a half hour ago by leading out betting the LAvs.Chi at U202.5 at +109 hoping the line will go down and I can snatch up a good scalp or middling opportunity. But in a matter of 2 mins the line jumped up to 205. Is there anyway I can get out of this mess without paying a HUGE juice. Can I possibly wait it out and see if I can minimize my losses with the half time lines? Or is there any other solutions for this kind of boneheaded plays? :smoking:
 

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Not to stomp on your grave, but that is often times an indicator that the line will be going up more. If pinny is begging for action at the +109 number, it is best to find that same number elsewhere and try to play the OVER at -110 or better juice and take a lead on the over. Anyway, you can try to use the drop down and take a guaranteed loss at pinny is one way. Tough spot, good luck working your way out of it.
 

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Valuebets said:
I made a boneheaded play a half hour ago by leading out betting the LAvs.Chi at U202.5 at +109 hoping the line will go down and I can snatch up a good scalp or middling opportunity. But in a matter of 2 mins the line jumped up to 205. Is there anyway I can get out of this mess without paying a HUGE juice. Can I possibly wait it out and see if I can minimize my losses with the half time lines? Or is there any other solutions for this kind of boneheaded plays? :smoking:

Go to every site on the www and start threads saying Kobe is out for the night.

The U will drop like a rock.
 

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God, I just realized how bad this play was. Totally forgot about Kobe getting outstaged the previous game so he's probably going for 100 by himself tonight.

Thanks for the tips but is there any way I can maybe cut my losses to a minimum at halftime by taking the half total because right now the best I see is -160 for this horrendous play. :Sad Face:
 

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If you like a side in this game (or any other game), tease the over and your side.
 

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That means I have to fly all the way to Chitown to get this hit done. But I do have a Kwame Brown voodoo doll, you know who to blame if Kwame have a bad game tonight. :puppy:
 

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Valuebets, how do you know your bet is going to lose? A big line move guarantees nothing. Many times when these totals move in the morning, someone has the inside on a player being in or out that night before it is announced. This happens many times during the year with my local team the OKC Hornets. Good Luck
 

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You could buy it back and eat the juice and chalk it up to experience. Or play the over 205 and hope it doesn't hit 203 or 204, a polish middle. Depends on how much you have on it and what your risk tolerance is.
 

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No way out without risk. It's like buying a stock, the stock goes down, you want to sell it for what you paid for it. I don't know how to do it.

If you wait until halftime, you MIGHT have a way out.

Maybe buy back the original number for part of the bet and eat juice ?
 

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Doug said:
No way out without risk. It's like buying a stock, the stock goes down, you want to sell it for what you paid for it. I don't know how to do it.

If you wait until halftime, you MIGHT have a way out.

Maybe buy back the original number for part of the bet and eat juice ?



I dont think they let you guys do this, but you take a tease with your game back to the number and then tie it to a later game for the the bailout. If not, just eat it. It happens to pros all the time.
 

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Sugarbear said:
I dont think they let you guys do this, but you take a tease with your game back to the number and then tie it to a later game for the the bailout. If not, just eat it. It happens to pros all the time.

You can lose the original bet and the teaser.

There is no true way out.

I usually don't lead so hard that I can't let the original bet stand, but sometimes buy back the same number.

Best to lead with a side you like over one you don't like but think will move.
 

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Thanks for the tips everyone. I decided to just buy it back and eat the chalk. Luckily there are a few juicy bowl season bonuses out there to help me out with the buy back :103631605 .
 

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Sugarbear said:
I dont think they let you guys do this, but you take a tease with your game back to the number and then tie it to a later game for the the bailout. If not, just eat it. It happens to pros all the time.

Should be no problem doing that even where you made the original bet.
 

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Valuebets said:
Thanks for the tips everyone. I decided to just buy it back and eat the chalk. Luckily there are a few juicy bowl season bonuses out there to help me out with the buy back :103631605 .
Yes, glad you may find a net positive way out of this after all. I only have books at Pinny and Bodog, but hey, I think those 2 books are from opposite poles so that's a good thing with just 2 books-- anyway-- I find myself liking to try to lead some lines from Pinny but lately, only doing so on games that I already plan to wager (system play or liking the value of early line).

I still get nervous when one lead go kaput in the wrong direction... because I dont have many "outs" (books) to explore/shop... so after one particular NBA game last week or so, it really hit me on how IMPORTANT to have at least 5 books for scalping/leading/arbing.

(The game in question above was uhh Denver at Atlanta but I hit Atlanta +3.5 -108 ---after changed the drop-down option from +2.5 +106 or such when Pinny came out thinking that Denver was on a road trip and/or B2B games & that Atlanta was undervalued... bad thinking--- anyway, I quickly realized that Atlanta's Joe Johnson was not expected to play and the lines hadn't adjusted to that YET... the lines later shot up for Denver from -2.5 to -5, -7, -8. By then, at -5/+5 I couldn't buy down to the -3.5 line. It pissed/scared me a bit... finally watched the Pinny lines carefully and bought Atlanta +5 and +7.5 at plus juice (+108 and +122)... so that I risked exactly a dime on 3 Atlanta bets... then gulped and went to Bodog and bet a dime on Denver at -8, a bad line, to just push on this whole thing. So I had a HUGE polish middle between Denver -5,-6,-7,-8. Result: after Atlanta led by 11 or so by half, which was fine by me, because I figure, as long as Atlanta is winning, can't worry about Denver and laying points with my UGLY POLISH MIDDLE... but oops, Denver destroyed Atlanta in 2nd half. At least Denver won by double-digits but it was a scare anyway!)

Moral of story: it's probably not best to make leading bets until you have the right BR at several books, in my honest opinion. I won't be doing so for a long while. :(

* CalvinTy
 

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I couldn't leave a hole like that. If the bet can't stand alone, and needs to be bought back, how can you risk losing twice the original risk ?

A Polish middle to me means you win money, unless the game lands in a certain range that loses both bets.
 

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When I make a mistake and am in the same situation and there is noway out (there usually isnt) I stand by my bet and get out at the half if possible. Normally limit my leads to a nickel for that very reason.:smoker2:
 

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Doug said:
I couldn't leave a hole like that. If the bet can't stand alone, and needs to be bought back, how can you risk losing twice the original risk ?

A Polish middle to me means you win money, unless the game lands in a certain range that loses both bets.
Right, I believe we both have the same definition for a Polish middle. I do play some Polish middles because they are easier to find/create, i.e. if a NBA half total at one book says Over 98 +105, but Under 98.5 -103 at other book, I know I'm exposed on EXACTLY 98 in where I push the O98 but lose the U98.5 bet. I make those bets once a week whenever I feel like and trying to make sure that I have the lean/odds correctly on my side first because I haven't faced a situation yet in 2 months where I lost/push 1 side of a bet due to a polish middle.

About that story, I also hated the logic of risking twice the original risk (like someone else just said, that's why my avg main bets are only $200-$300 based on my BR) like I did with that original Atlanta +3.5 -108 line. Once that line adjusted for Joe Johnson not to be playing, in my eyes, the bet no longer could "stand alone" and had to be bought back. So going against the logic, I risked another $250 at Atlanta +5 +108 (making the combined $500-ish bet to be at +100 juice). Finally, as the game time approached, I sold another point at Pinny to get like +7 +122 for another $500 (instead of +8). So, the 3 combined bets averaged out to be +111 whatever, risking $1,000 to win $1,112 or such). Then, after making those "silly bets to make up for bad original bet", I went to other book (Bodog) and got Denver at -8 for risking $1,100 to win $1,000. So, that way, it became a push if Denver completely covered or winning $12 if Atlanta completely covered.

At no time, I would have lost both $1K wagers but I'd have dreaded Denver winning by exactly 7 because I'd lose first 2 Pinny Atlanta half-nickel bets & pushing Atlanta nickel bet & losing Bodog's Denver dime bet. That'd be the worst case losing $1,500 (getting only $500 push back). So in hindsight, it WAS A VERY VERY BAD ATTEMPT trying to buy back a "bad $250 bet".

So yes, Doug, I have learned that lesson & was so friggin' glad that the particular game was played out mostly in double-digits either way and came out from this experience down $0.00. (Of course, I had to reload Pinny just like everyone else, ha, with my Bodog withdrawals.)

* CalvinTy
 
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Valuebets said:
Thanks for the tips everyone. I decided to just buy it back and eat the chalk.

Smart move. Just eat the vig & move on. You'll be better than than forcing yourself to take a large side that you got stuck with when it moved the wrong way.

(These SUCK!)
 

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Damn, maybe I should've stayed with my original play, the chalk is tasting pretty awful right now :lol: .
 

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